Uncertainties seen tempering PH growth

Philippine economic growth will likely slow this year due to external headwinds, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) reiterated on Tuesday as it kept its forecast for 2025 and lowered that for next year.

In the September edition of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the Manila-based lender maintained the 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection announced in a July supplement. It was a higher 6.0 percent in the April ADO.

If realized, GDP growth will have slowed from last year’s 5.7 percent but hit the government’s downwardly revised 5.5- to 6.5-percent target. The 2024 result, which fell below the 6.0- to 6.5-percent goal for that year, was attributed in part to a series of typhoons.

Unilateral tariff increases initiated by US President Donald Trump and heightened geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, prompted the government to lower its 2025 and 2026-2028 targets in June.

While the ADB forecast for this year falls within the updated range, that for 2026 — a reduced 5.7 percent compared to the 5.8 percent in June and 6.1 percent in April — is lower than the new 6.0- to 7.0-percent target.

“External headwinds and heightened uncertainty over global economic policies have weighed down trade and investment prospects,” ADB Country Director Andrew Jeffries told a briefing.

A 19-percent tariff rate levied by the US on Philippine exports, which took effect in August, is expected to have an impact on outbound shipments. However, solid domestic demand — seen remaining the main engine of growth — should provide an offsetting effect.

The rate — down from the 20 percent threatened in July but higher than the 17 percent announced in April — is seen as offering little in terms of a strategic trade advantage over neighboring Southeast Asian economies.

Still, the ADB said that Philippine growth would remain strong and Jeffries said “sustained government investments, including for social services, is seen boosting domestic demand.”

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” he added.

“Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion.”

Asked whether an ongoing corruption scandal would have an impact, Jeffries said: “We didn’t see a reason at this point in time to reduce those GDP projections due to that issue.”

“But it’s certainly a heightened risk,” he added.

“Between now and our December update, there may be more quantifiable data available that may alter our projections.”

Jeffries said that while the ADB takes “corruption and public financial management very seriously,” it is also mandated to “support our developing member country governments and to help solve complicated projects, not to shy away from helping solve such projects.”

“We have very strong due diligence on the financial management capabilities of our borrowers and any gaps found are built into the project to mitigate financial management risks.”

He added that the ADB requires audited, project-level financial statements from approved auditors for ongoing expenses. Loan disbursements are also strictly monitored to ensure that funds are released only when contracted construction milestones are met.

“So we take this very seriously and... we actually see potentially more support being asked of us to help address this problem going forward,” Jeffries said.

Source: Manila Times

Pinoy Gen Zs emerging as self-rewarding, intelligent consumers–study

“Deserve ko ‘to!” (I deserve this!)

It’s a phrase that Filipinos have come to use to reaffirm their spending habits, which sometimes can be described as compulsive, especially when facing tempting discounts and promos that are offered right around pay days.

It’s a behavior that’s seen strongly among today’s Gen Z consumers, who spend primarily to reward themselves, says a recent study—one that is crucial for brands to understand in order to cater to this growing demographic, and facilitate immersive shopping experiences that promote convenience and appeal to their personal preferences.

The study, jointly conducted by Filipino-focused sociocultural research firm The Fourth Wall and communications firm Uniquecorn Strategies, says that three out of four Filipino Gen Z consumers living in urban areas shop online because they believe that they deserve it—a philosophy driven by their desire for happiness, fear of missing out on trends and the need to simply give themselves a gift for overcoming work or study-related stress.

The survey, conducted among 400 Gen Z consumers in Metro Manila, shows that 50 percent of a typical Filipino Gen Z’s finances come from parental allowances, while the other half come from full-time work, businesses, or side gigs. On average, they make six online purchases per month, ranging from a minimum of one to a maximum of 10.

Citing prior research, the study notes that there are about 41 million Gen Zs (born between 1996 and 2010) in the Philippines, making up about 38 percent of the total population, according to Philippine Statistics Authority’s latest official 2020 census.

“The young generation is rapidly becoming a significant portion of the consumer market, and is already shaping market trends, especially the e-commerce space,” says John Brylle Bae, research director at The Fourth Wall. “This self-rewarding behavior among Filipino Gen Zs stems from their growing self-awareness, driving them to seek rewards that affirm that sense of self-worth.”

The research, which leveraged machine learning clustering and social listening, also identify five dominant psychographic profiles of urban Filipino Gen Z consumers, who have distinct preferences and motivations:

• the Austere Austins, who prioritize budget-friendly options;

• the Budgetarian Bellas, who focus on cost-effective choices;

• the Frugal Fionas, who advocate for affordable and sustainable products; and

• the Deserving Desires, who seek rewards for their hard work and dedication.

Intelligent buyers

Overall, however, Filipino Gen Zs are intelligent buyers, the study states. They splurge based on quality (81 percent) and price competitiveness (10 percent), and are most likely to repurchase from the same brand that consistently delivers high-quality and affordable products. Still, they are willing to try other brands, even if they are emotionally attached to their preferred ones.

The study also shows that Filipino Gen Zs buy based on trust and personal affinity. Upon hearing about a product, 81 percent do their due diligence and look up customer reviews first on shopping platforms and Google.

Word of mouth, therefore, is still one of the primary ways they discover products (60 percent), while others rank social commerce ads (59 percent) as important to their shopping experience. They take cues from the people they deeply trust, which include friends and family. They are also more influenced by honest, objective, or out-of-pocket reviews from influencers or content creators with the right expertise.

These digital natives, naturally, also prefer the convenience of online shopping. Almost all the respondents (92 percent) use their own mobile phones for purchases and prefer cashless payment methods (53 percent).Given this, the study identifies several key opportunities for brands to connect with Filipino Gen Z consumers more effectively:

There is a significant potential for advertising on more personal yet credible emerging media platforms such as podcasts, and brands can leverage self-expression and identity in their branding to establish a personal affinity with target customer personas.

Tuning into these behaviors, says Uniquecorn Strategies founder and CEO Dean Bernales, will ultimately help brands come up with the right strategy to employ to capture the Gen Z market.

“Retailers should pay close attention to the shopping desires and needs of Filipino Gen Zs. Brands need to reassess their supply chain strategies and enhance their social commerce platforms to build trust, create personal connections and develop a relatable image to capture the young market,” Bernales says.

Source: Inquirer

Philippine housing prices rise in Q2

Philippine housing prices increased in the second quarter as consumers were less pessimistic about purchasing residential properties, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

The BSP’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) showed housing prices nationwide went up by 7.5% in the April-June period.

However, this was slower than the 7.6% annual growth seen in the first quarter and the 7.9% a year ago. Quarter on quarter, the RPPI rose by 4.2%, outpacing the 2.6% growth in home prices logged in the first quarter.

The RPPI measures the average price changes over time of various residential properties using banks’ data on actual housing loans. The central bank said the data gives insight on the real estate and credit market conditions in the Philippines.

However, home prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) went up by 2.4% in the second quarter, slowing from the 13.9% in the previous quarter and 9.3% last year.

Quarter on quarter, NCR housing prices contracted by 3.6%.

Outside of NCR (AONCR), home prices rose by 11.5% during the April to June period, faster than the 3% in the first quarter and 7.2% a year ago.

Balance Greater Manila Area (GMA) had the highest annual growth in housing prices at 13.2%, followed by Metro Cebu (11.5%), other areas in the Philippines (8.8%), and Metro Mindanao (7.7%).

CONDO PRICES SLUMP

By housing type, condominium unit prices dipped by 0.2% in the second quarter, a reversal from the 11.5% increase in the comparable year-ago period and the 10.6% growth last quarter.

The cost of houses, which include single-attached or detached units, apartments, townhouses and duplexes, rose by 13.1% year on year. This was faster than the 5.4% in 2024 and 4.5% in the first quarter.

Data from the central bank showed the median price for all housing types in the Philippines stood at P3.4 million in the second quarter. Condominium units had a median price of P3.8 million, while houses cost around P3.1 million.

Houses in the NCR were the most expensive at a median price of P7.01 million, while houses in other areas in the Philippines were the cheapest at about P2.7 million.

In the second quarter, residential real estate loans (RREL) granted for all types of housing units in the country grew by 14.7% year on year.

“This uptick aligns with the results of the Q2 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, which showed a less pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the purchase of a house and lot,” the central bank said.

“Reflecting this shift in sentiment, a larger share of households considered Q2 2025 as a favorable time to purchase residential property,” it added.

By area, loan availments increased by 10.3% year on year in the NCR and by 16.6% in the AONCR. It was highest in the Balance GMA at 22.5%, followed by Metro Cebu at 18.7%, Metro Mindanao 12.9%, and other areas in the Philippines at 4.3%

The BSP said 74.6% of RRELs availed in the April-June period were for new housing units, while 25% were for pre-owned properties and 0.4% for foreclosed.

Over half or 60.4% of the loans were used for houses, while 39.6% were for condominium units.

Banks approved the most housing loans in Calabarzon (33.2% share) and NCR (28.5%), followed by Central Luzon (11.9%), Central Visayas (8.8%), Western Visayas (6.6%), Davao Region (4.2%) and Northern Mindanao (2.3%).

Source: Business World