S&P hikes PHL growth forecasts until 2027

S&P Global Ratings expects the Philippines to be the second fastest-growing economy until 2027, as it raised its growth projections.

In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific, S&P Global Ratings said Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) will likely expand by 5.9% this year from 5.7% previously.

For 2026, it expects Philippine GDP to grow by 6% from 5.9% previously.

S&P Global Ratings now projects Philippine GDP growth at 6.6% in 2027 from 6.4% previously.

Based on S&P’s latest projections, the Philippines and Vietnam will post the second-fastest expansion in Asia-Pacific this year until 2027.

India is expected to lead the region, as its GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% this year, 6.7% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.

For 2028, S&P Global Ratings said Philippine GDP will likely expand by 6.5%, the third-fastest in the region after India (6.8%) and Vietnam (6.6%).

“(The) upward revision from our forecasts published in May was driven by the sharp reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China, which came after the pause in the country-specific ‘reciprocal’ tariffs by the US. These somewhat reduced the downsides around global trade and growth,” S&P Global Ratings Senior Lead Economist Vincent Conti said.

US President Donald J. Trump announced higher reciprocal tariffs on most of the country’s trading partners, with Philippine goods facing the second-lowest rate in Southeast Asia at 17%.

However, the reciprocal tariffs have been paused for 90 days until July. A baseline 10% tariff remains in place.

“We nevertheless expect global trade uncertainty to be substantially higher than before January, and that would in turn provide a key headwind for investment in the Philippines,” Mr. Conti added.

S&P Global Market Intelligence Principal Economist Harumi Taguchi said the direct impact of the US tariffs on the Philippine economy is still “relatively smaller” compared with other Asia-Pacific economies.

“The magnitude of impact, including the indirect impact, depends on these scenarios. In any case, this tariff will slow global economic growth and disrupt the supply chain,” she said on Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings sees the Philippines’ benchmark rate ending at 5% this year, which implies another 25-basis-point (bp) cut by the central bank this year.

“With inflation not a major risk, more focus on growth risks and external factors unlikely to significantly constrain monetary policy easing, we expect Asia-Pacific central banks to continue to cut policy rates,” it said in a report.

Last week, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 bps to 5.25% from 5.5% amid a moderating inflation outlook and weaker growth.

The Monetary Board’s remaining policy meetings this year are scheduled for Aug. 28, Oct. 9, and Dec. 11.

S&P Global also expects Philippine inflation to average 2.3% this year, within the 2-4% target. It also projects inflation to settle at 3.2% in 2026, 3.3% in 2027 and 3% in 2028.

The BSP forecasts inflation to average 1.6% this year, 3.4% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027.

Source: Business World

Three key economic reforms

Big business groups last week praised lawmakers for passing three key economic reform measures aimed at boosting investments, improving transparency in government transactions, and speeding up key infrastructure projects.

The Makati Business Club (MBC) lauded Congress for approving amendments to the Foreign Investors’ Long-Term Lease Act, and the E-Governance Act, and the Right of Way (ROW) Act, reforms that “aligned with our advocacies for improvements in governance, infrastructure, and transparency, which we see as key drivers to attract more investors and create more jobs.”

 The Filipino Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry Inc. (FFCCCII), for its part, noted that the business sector had long been urging the government to enact these reforms to attract more foreign investments and ease bottlenecks in infrastructure development.

The changes to the long-term lease law seek to encourage more foreign capital by extending the allowable lease period to 99 years from 75 years previously, thus bringing the Philippines more in line with regional competitors and address the major issue often cited by prospective foreign investors on their limited ability to secure land for extended periods, which made long-term planning and investment riskier.

The E-Governance Act, meanwhile, seeks to promote transparency and efficiency by expanding digital access to government services. By mandating the digitization of public services and integrating platforms across agencies, the reform aims to reduce red tape and improve the overall ease of doing business needed by investors.

High ROW costs

The most important of the three is the ROW (Right of Way) amendments, which will hopefully put an end to a problem that has nagged previous administrations as far back as the 1970s. The ongoing P448-billion Metro Manila subway project is a case in point.

The administration of the late former president Benigno Aquino III removed the project from its pipeline due to issues such as high ROW costs. It was included in the ambitious “Build, Build, Build” program of former President Rodrigo Duterte in 2017 as the Mega Manila Subway and carried over to the present administration of President Marcos as part of its P9-trillion infrastructure flagship projects list. It was targeted for partial operation before the end of Mr. Marcos’ term in 2028.

It is designed to interconnect with other rail systems — the operating Lines 1 and 2 of the Light Rail Transit system and the Metro Rail Transit Line 3 on Edsa; the MRT Line 7 (another project that has been delayed for years now), and the North-South Commuter Railway Extension at the FTI and Bicutan Stations.

Thorny issue

Based on a plan dated Sept. 27, 2019, construction of a section of the subway was to start in 2019 and operate in 2022. Construction of the remaining sections was to begin in 2022 and operate in 2025. It has become doubtful if partial operation can start by 2028 as ROW problems continue to hound the project.

These same issues have also delayed the completion of a key segment intended to link the North Luzon Expressway–South Luzon Expressway connector road to the Metro Manila Skyway Stage 3 as well as many other important infrastructure projects across the country.

The Accelerated and Reformed Right-Of-Way Act that will amend the current ROW law addresses the thorny issue of compensation, perhaps the most common cause of ROW delays, by updating the standards for assessing the value of property subject to negotiated sale using Republic Act No. 12001, or the Real Property Valuation and Assessment Reform Act, which was signed in January this year.

Ease of doing business

At the end of the day, however, a law becomes truly effective only when it is put into action. As MBC noted, it hopes that the proper implementation of these reforms will achieve the intended goal of enhancing the country’s competitiveness.

For the E-Governance law, its success will depend a lot on whether local government units, which are notorious for bureaucratic red tape, embrace the digitization of public services and for the different departments to integrate their platforms across agencies as mandated by the proposed law.

This will hopefully improve the overall ease of doing business and attract investors, particularly outside the traditional urban centers of Metro Manila, Cebu, and Davao.

For the ROW amendments, the involvement of all concerned agencies will be crucial to successfully implement these reforms, which the FFCCCII describes as essential changes to break a cycle of failure.

“Standardized valuation based on fair market principles, guaranteed funding for land acquisition, and structured resettlement programs address the root causes of delay: arbitrary pricing, fiscal uncertainty, and inadequate planning,” it pointed out.

And as Transportation Secretary Vince Dizon emphasized, solving ROW issues is not just a problem of his agency, but concerns that need “a whole-of-government approach.”

Source: Inquirer

Philippine banks’ real estate exposure sinks to 6-year low

The exposure of Philippine banks and trust entities to the property sector dropped to a six-year low at the end of March, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

Banks’ real estate exposure ratio slipped to 19.41% as of end-March from 19.75% at end-December. It was also lower than 20.31% in the same period last year.

This was also the lowest real estate exposure ratio recorded in six years or since the 19.2% at end-March 2019.

The BSP monitors lenders’ exposure to the real estate industry as part of its mandate to maintain financial stability.

Investments and loans extended by Philippine banks and trust departments to the real estate sector rose by 7.76% to P3.34 trillion as of March from P3.1 trillion in the same period in 2024.

Broken down, real estate loans increased by 9.1% to P2.97 trillion as of end-March from P2.72 trillion at end-March 2024.

Residential real estate loans increased by an annual 11% to P1.13 trillion, while commercial real estate loans also went up by an annual 7.96% to P1.83 trillion.

Past due real estate loans stood at P149.52 billion, higher by 9.3% from P136.79 billion a year prior.

Broken down, past due residential real estate loans climbed by 14.74% to P107.62 billion, while past due commercial real estate loans fell by 2.56% to P41.9 billion.

Gross nonperforming real estate loans inched up by 0.44% to P111.27 billion at end-March from P110.79 billion a year ago.

This brought the gross nonperforming real estate loan ratio to 3.75% at end-March, lower than 4.07% a year earlier.

Meanwhile, real estate investments also dipped by 1.86% to P372.4 billion as of end-March from P379.45 billion in the same period a year ago.

Debt securities increased by 1.93% year on year to P256.04 billion, while equity securities fell by 9.28% to P116.36 billion.

Joey Roi H. Bondoc, director and head of research at Colliers Philippines attributed the banks’ lower exposure ratio in the first quarter to the drop in consumer demand for housing loans.

In a phone interview, Mr. Bondoc said there have been reports that homebuyers are backing out of their loans.

“Once it enters the bank financing, [the payment] balloons to, say, quadruple, quintuple times. That’s the problem,” he said, noting that some buyers may have been attracted by the low downpayment.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said real estate developers may also be cautious in managing new supply after the exit of Philippine offshore gaming operators.

“Banks, real estate companies, investors, end-users also cautious on possible slower world and local economic conditions due to Trump’s higher tariffs/trade wars/other protectionist policies and geopolitical risks recently such as the Israel-Iran war,” Mr. Ricafort said.

Mr. Bondoc said he sees some “green shoots of recovery, but those are primarily outside of Metro Manila.”

“The horizontal house and lot projects are still good. But, again, the more expensive projects, say those in Metro Manila, including the condos, the take-up is definitely down,” he said.

Recent rate cuts by the BSP may not have been felt by consumers.

“We’ve seen these reductions already from the central bank since last year. But have we seen an impact, a positive impact, meaning reduced mortgage rates? Not yet. We have not seen that,” Mr. Bondoc said.

On Thursday, the BSP delivered a second straight 25-basis-point (bp) cut, bringing its policy rate to 5.25% amid a benign inflation outlook and slowing economic growth.

It has now reduced benchmark borrowing costs by 125 bps since it began its easing cycle in August last year.

“Our average rate, for example, five-year loans, still at 7.7%. When last year, it was 7.8%. There’s really no sizable, substantial correction or reduction in terms of these mortgage rates,” Mr. Bondoc said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. also signaled they could deliver one more 25-bp cut this year.

Source: Business World