Fertility rate in PHL steadily declines

The Philippines’ total fertility rate (TFR) reached a record low of 1.7 children per woman in the 2023-2025 period, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported.

Preliminary data from the National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) by the PSA showed that the TFR in the three years leading up to the 2025 survey dipped from the 1.9 TFR recorded in 2022.

This was the lowest recorded TFR since tracking began in 1993, and a continuation of a downward trend in the rates throughout all releases of the NDHS.

The PSA defines the TFR as the number of a woman’s children by the end of her childbearing years.

By region, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao logged the highest fertility rate at 2.4, followed by the Zamboanga Peninsula at 2.3, and Caraga at 2.2.

Meanwhile, the lowest TFR was recorded in Calabarzon at 1.3, followed by Metro Manila and the Negros Island Region at 1.4.

By educational attainment, women who have an elementary-level educational attainment had the highest TFR with 3.1 childbirths inching up from 3 in 2022.

This was followed by those with junior high school-level attainments and no attainments with 2.3 (from 2.5 in 2022), and then by those with senior high school-level attainments with 1.8 (from 2.7 in 2022).

Categorized by wealth quintile, those at the lowest wealth quintile had the highest TFR with 2.8 births from 3.1 in 2022.

This was followed by the second wealth quintile with 2.1 (from 2.2 in 2022), and the middle wealth quintile with 1.7 (from 1.9).

Age-specific fertility rates, which pertain to births per 1000 women over the three-year period covered, were highest in the 25 to 29-year-old age group with 94 births.

This was followed by those aged 30-34 years old with 84 births, and the 20 to 24-year-olds with 67 births.

The percentage of women who said they no longer want children rose to 49.4% from 48.8% in 2022.

By region, the largest share of women with this sentiment was highest in Bicol with 57%, followed by Mimaropa with 56.9%, and the Negros Island Region at 56.7%.

The NDHS is conducted every three years and provides data to guide policies and programs to improve the health and development of Filipinos.

It is also aligned with indicators on the Sustainable Development Goals and the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028, covering fertility, family planning, maternal and child health, and domestic violence.

Source: Business World

Philippine Jurisprudence Signals Recognition of Property Rights in Same-Sex Unions

Recent developments in Philippine jurisprudence suggest a significant shift in how courts may treat property disputes involving same-sex couples. Although same-sex marriage is still not legally recognized in the Philippines, recent court decisions indicate that partners in same-sex relationships may assert property rights under the legal concept of co-ownership. This development reflects a broader effort by the judiciary to address real-world economic relationships even when traditional family law structures do not apply.

The Legal Challenge for Same-Sex Couples

Property relations in the Philippines are primarily governed by the Family Code, which assumes that property regimes arise from marriage between a man and a woman. Because same-sex marriage is not legally recognized, couples in same-sex relationships have historically lacked clear legal protections when it comes to property acquired during their partnership.

In many cases, couples living together jointly invest in homes, land, or businesses. However, practical realities often mean that property is registered under only one partner’s name. This can occur because of financing arrangements, convenience, or legal uncertainty. When the relationship ends or disputes arise, the partner whose name does not appear on the title may face difficulty asserting a claim over the property.

Co-Ownership as a Legal Remedy

Recent jurisprudence indicates that Philippine courts may treat property acquired by same-sex partners as co-owned property if both parties contributed to its acquisition. The doctrine of co-ownership exists in civil law and applies when two or more persons jointly own a property, even if formal documentation is incomplete or imperfect.

Under this approach, courts examine whether both partners contributed money, property, or effort toward acquiring the asset. If such contributions can be proven, the property may be treated as belonging to both individuals in proportion to their respective contributions.

This interpretation allows courts to protect the economic interests of partners without formally recognizing the relationship as a marriage or civil union.

Application of Property Rules for Couples Who Cannot Marry

Philippine law already contains provisions governing property relations between individuals who live together but cannot legally marry. These rules were originally designed for situations involving relationships that fall outside legally recognized marriage.

Courts have increasingly applied these principles to same-sex couples. Under this framework, only the property that was acquired through actual joint contribution becomes subject to co-ownership. Each partner’s share corresponds to what they contributed, unless evidence shows that the contributions were intended to be equal.

This legal reasoning focuses on fairness and economic reality rather than the formal status of the relationship.

Implications for Property Disputes

The recognition of co-ownership rights in same-sex relationships carries several important implications.

First, partners who financially contributed to acquiring property may be able to assert their ownership rights even if the property title lists only one name.

Second, courts may allow the division or sale of jointly owned property if the relationship ends and the parties cannot agree on its use or disposition.

Third, documentation becomes crucial. Bank transfers, receipts, written agreements, or testimony demonstrating financial contributions may determine how ownership shares are allocated.

These developments encourage couples—regardless of sexual orientation—to keep clearer records of their financial arrangements when acquiring property together.

A Judicial Response to Social Reality

The evolving jurisprudence reflects a pragmatic approach by Philippine courts. Rather than redefining family law, the judiciary has applied existing legal doctrines to protect property rights where two individuals have clearly acted as economic partners.

This approach recognizes that modern relationships often involve shared investments and financial cooperation, even in the absence of legally recognized marriage.

Looking Ahead

While the recognition of co-ownership rights does not equate to legal recognition of same-sex unions, it marks a meaningful development in Philippine property law. Courts are increasingly willing to acknowledge the economic contributions of partners in long-term relationships and to protect those contributions through established legal doctrines.

As social attitudes and legal discussions continue to evolve, these judicial decisions may influence future legislation and policy debates. For now, the doctrine of co-ownership provides a practical legal avenue through which same-sex partners can protect their property interests in the Philippines.

Source: Ziggurat Real Estate

World Bank sees PH growth slump to 3.7% in 2026

The World Bank has slashed its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to a sluggish 3.7%, down from earlier projections of over 5%. Released in the latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update on April 8, 2026, this downgrade signals headwinds from global trade tensions, persistent inflation, and domestic fiscal strains.

For a nation long riding high on post-pandemic recovery, this slump raises tough questions—especially for real estate investors watching condo towers rise amid cooling demand.

Why the Downgrade? Key Headwinds Exposed

Several factors are dragging down the outlook:

• Global Trade Slowdown: Escalating U.S.-China tariffs and weaker demand from major partners like the U.S. and EU are hitting Philippine exports hard. Electronics and semiconductors, which make up 60% of exports, face a projected 2-3% contraction.

• Inflation and High Interest Rates: Headline inflation lingers at 4.2%, above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target. The BSP held rates at 5.75% in Q1 2026, squeezing borrowing costs for businesses and households.

• Fiscal Pressures: Government spending growth slowed to 4.1% amid rising debt servicing (now 6.5% of GDP), limiting infrastructure push despite the Build Better More program.

• Weather Risks: Back-to-back typhoons in late 2025 disrupted agriculture and construction, shaving 0.5% off GDP estimates.

The World Bank now sees 2026 GDP at 3.7%, rebounding modestly to 4.6% in 2027—still below the government's optimistic 6-7% target.

Real Estate Ripples: A Cooling Market Ahead

For property watchers like us, this forecast spells caution. Residential demand, fueled by OFW remittances and urban migration, faces headwinds:

Segment	2025 Growth	2026 Projection	Key Driver
Condos (Metro Manila)	+8%	+3-4%	Higher mortgage rates curb BPO-driven buys
Houses (Suburban)	+6%	+2%	Slowing job growth hits middle-class demand
Office (Tier 2 Cities)	+5%	Flat	BPO expansion stalls amid global IT cuts
Industrial (Clark, Batangas)	+10%	+5%	Export slump delays warehouse builds

Pre-selling condo prices in Quezon City and Makati have softened 5-7% year-on-year, per Colliers Philippines data. Developers like Ayala Land and SM Prime report unsold inventory piling up, prompting discounts. Commercial rents in BGC could dip 3% if vacancy rates climb past 15%.

Yet, pockets of resilience persist: Government infra like the NLEX-SLEX Connector and airport expansions will buoy logistics properties. Affordable housing under P1M remains hot in Central Visayas and CALABARZON, supported by 4Ps subsidies.

Investor Playbook: Navigate the Slump Smartly

Don't panic-sell—position for the rebound:

1. Hunt Value: Target undervalued suburban lots near infra projects. Yields could hit 7-8% post-2027.

2. Diversify: Mix residential with industrial REITs (AREIT up 12% YTD despite the gloom).

3. Lock Rates: Refinance now before BSP cuts (expected Q4 2026).

4. Watch Policy: A midterm election pivot toward stimulus could spark a Q3 rally.

The Philippines' fundamentals—young workforce, digital boom—remain solid. This 3.7% dip is a speed bump, not a derailment.

Source: Ziggurat Real Estate