Philippines’ Q4 GDP growth sharply slows to 3% amid corruption scandal

The Philippine economy grew 3% in the last quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier, weaker than the downwardly revised 3.9% expansion for the previous quarter, the country’s statistics agency said.

The pace fell below a 4% median forecast in a Reuters poll, and brought full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.4%, missing the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% target for 2025.

The lackluster performance of the Philippine economy raised the odds of another central bank rate cut, and was caused in part by a corruption scandal tied to infrastructure projects that slowed public spending last year.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolona said last week that if fourth quarter GDP proved to be weaker-than-expected, it would help the central bank decide whether to take action at a rate setting meeting scheduled for February 19.

The central bank has cut its benchmark rate by a cumulative 200 basis points to a three-year low of 4.5% in the current cycle, which Remolona has said was nearing its end.

Source: Business World

Listed property firms seen posting modest revenue growth this year

Listed property companies in the Philippines are expected to post modest revenue growth this year amid tepid economic expansion and elevated inventory in the office and residential segments, analysts said.

“Revenue trajectory [is] on the way to recovery, but the journey can be challenged by moderating gross domestic product growth this year and the oversupply overhang in some segments like office and high-rise residential,” First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said.

The government has lowered its economic growth target for this year to 5%-6% from the previous 6%-7% range set for 2026 to 2028.

This came after a corruption scandal involving flood control projects dampened government spending and consumer confidence in the latter half of 2025.

Ms. Ulang also cited the oversupply of office and vertical residential units in some areas, which could weigh on listed developers’ revenue growth.

The Metro Manila office market has about 2.7 million square meters of vacant supply, while 80,300 condominium units remain unsold in the region, according to Leechiu Property Consultants’ fourth-quarter property market report.

Unicapital Securities, Inc. Research Head Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz said modest revenue growth is expected this year as the sector has yet to fully recover from tempered demand following a prolonged period of high interest rates.

In December, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a more than three-year low of 4.5%. This marked the BSP’s fifth consecutive 25-bp reduction, bringing total rate cuts to 200 bps since August 2024.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. recently signaled that the Monetary Board is nearing the end of its easing cycle.

However, Ms. Estacio-Cruz said interest rates remain relatively elevated and may continue to weigh on housing affordability, particularly in the mid- to mass-market segments.

Rising land, construction, and financing costs may also delay project launches, she added.

“Leasing assets in prime locations should remain resilient, while upper-mid to high-end residential projects are likely to drive sales, given their relative resistance to interest rate pressures,” Ms. Estacio-Cruz said.

As a result, developers are expected to rebalance their revenue mix this year, analysts said.

The country’s industrial and logistics sector also presents revenue opportunities for listed firms, particularly amid the growth of e-commerce, data centers, and cold storage facilities, First Grade Finance, Inc. Managing Director Astro C. del Castillo said.

Developers with hospitality and retail assets may also post steady profits, he said, supported by an influx of local and international events scheduled this year.

Sy-led SM Prime Holdings, Inc. reported a 10% increase in net income to P37.2 billion for the first nine months of 2025.

Ayala Land, Inc.’s nine-month profit rose slightly to P21.4 billion from P21.2 billion a year earlier.

Robinsons Land Corp. posted a 2% increase in attributable net income to P10.17 billion for the period.

Megaworld Corp. recorded a 16% rise in attributable net income to P15.93 billion.

Federal Land, Inc. posted a 6% increase in nine-month reservation sales, while Filinvest Land, Inc. reported a 5% rise in consolidated net income to P3.64 billion.

Century Properties Group, Inc. saw its nine-month net income climb 17% to P2.1 billion, while DoubleDragon Corp.’s consolidated net income edged up to P2.55 billion.

Cebu Landmasters, Inc. posted a 6% increase in consolidated net income to P3.1 billion, while Vista Land & Lifescapes, Inc. recorded a 4% rise to P9.46 billion for the first nine months of 2025.

Rockwell Land Corp. posted a 13.1% increase in consolidated net income to P3.5 billion as of end-September, while Sta. Lucia Land, Inc.’s net income fell 38% to P2.05 billion during the period.

“In our view, topline performance will be supported by improving leasing conditions, a gradual recovery in residential sales, and the increasing contribution of recurring income streams,” Ms. Estacio-Cruz said.

Source: Business World

Remittances seen growing despite ‘Trump volatilities’

Overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances are expected to grow despite a new US tax that took effect Jan. 1.

Maybank Investment Banking Group economist Azril Rosli on Tuesday said that while the bank remained “cautious of potential headwinds from tighter immigration policies and the new one-percent US remittance tax,” remittances were likely to weather “Trump’s volatilities as seen in Trump 1.0 (his first term)” with the support of a “growing share from the Middle East and other parts of Asia.”

The 1.0 percent tax applies to money sent from the US through cash, money orders and cashier’s checks, regardless of the sender’s citizenship. The tax does not apply to transfers made through US banks, US-issued debit or credit cards, or cash carried by hand.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the US remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40 percent of the year-to-date total.

The central bank, however, has said that remittance data has its limits because money sent home by overseas Filipinos often passes through correspondent banks, most of which are based in the United States, and that remittances sent through couriers are also recorded under the country where the courier’s main office is located, again often the US.

Personal and cash remittances respectively rose by 3.2 percent to $35.7 billion and $32.11 billion as of end-November, latest BSP data showed, from $34.6 billion and $31.1 billion in January-November 2024.

The central bank expects remittances to hit $35.5 billion and $36.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Maybank expects remittances to grow to about $36.5 billion this year.

As for economic growth, the bank said this could remain subdued until next year due to domestic and global uncertainties.

“We continue to evaluate emerging risks from the external trade outlook, geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties that could impact economic growth and inflation,” Rosli said.

Maybank said growth could have slowed to 4.8 percent in 2025 from 2024’s 5.7 percent — below the government’s 5.5- to 6.5-percent target.

Growth is expected to rebound to 4.9 percent and 5.2 percent this year and in 2027, respectively, below the government’s downwardly revised 5.0- to 6.0-percent and 5.5- to 6.5-percent targets.

The impact of a flood control project scandal is not expected to be long-term, Rosli said, but this would also depend on whether the government takes concrete steps to address the issue.

“...I believe that the risk that it could influence the economic trajectory, it could be lesser if... the situation has been resolved by the government,” Rosli said.

“And I think the government has also been proactive to actually improve the situation and also given focus on the priorities of the budget funding, especially on the priorities for the people as well,” he added.

Moreover, the BSP’s “gradual easing of monetary policy” is expected to support the rebound in economic growth.

Rosli said the central bank could implement two more rate cuts this year — one 25-basis-point cut in the first half and another in the last six months of the year.

“This gradual approach reflects that the BSP needs to balance supporting modest GDP (gross domestic product) growth, while maintaining vigilance on emerging risks from the external trade outlook as well as geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties,” he said.

Source: Manila Times