Growth slump may drag until 2027

The Philippines’ economic slowdown may extend through 2027, raising the odds of deeper monetary easing by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), according to Deutsche Bank Research.

In a report, it said the widening corruption scandal in the Department of Public Works and Highways — involving alleged fund diversion and irregularities in flood control projects — is likely to weigh on public and private investment for several years. It warned that the fallout could suppress growth and push the central bank to cut policy rates more aggressively.

“The public works corruption scandal is likely to be a drag on growth, as it reduces public and private capex (capital expenditure),” Deutsche Bank economists Vaninder Singh and Joey Chung said in the report released on Thursday. “BSP is likely to cut twice more, with risks of an even deeper easing cycle.”

The BSP has lowered borrowing rates by 175 basis points (bps) since August 2024, including a fourth straight 25-bp cut in October that brought the benchmark rate to a three-year low of 4.75%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. this week signaled that a fifth cut is possible at the Monetary Board’s December meeting, citing expectations that full-year growth will fall well below target. “Baby steps” of 25 bps remain the most likely pace, he added, ruling out larger cuts.

Mr. Remolona has said the economy might expand by only 4-5% this year, compared with the government’s 5.5-6.5% goal — a target he acknowledged is now out of reach.

The economy grew 4% in the third quarter as consumer and investor sentiment weakened amid the budget scandal, pulling the nine-month average to 5%.

Deutsche Bank expects growth to remain subdued next year, projecting a 5.1% expansion in 2026, well below the government’s 6-7% goal. It sees a modest improvement to 6% in 2027 as investment conditions stabilize.

Its baseline view is for 50 bps of additional easing, bringing the policy rate to a terminal 4.25% by mid-2026.

“DB Economics expects two further rate cuts in response to a deeper negative output gap that will last longer, likely well into 2027,” according to the report. “The risk is, if anything, for an even deeper easing cycle.”

Meanwhile, ING Think also sees room for more easing next year, anchored on its expectation that inflation across major Asian economies including the Philippines will stay within target in 2026.

“In 2026, inflation is unlikely to rise above the central bank targets in any of the Asian economies under our coverage, and we still expect rate cuts in… the Philippines,” it said in a separate report.

Philippine inflation averaged 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year, matching the BSP’s full-year forecast. The central bank expects inflation to settle at 3.1% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.

Deutsche Bank also flagged risks to the peso, warning that the currency could temporarily weaken past P60 a dollar next year if corporate sentiment deteriorates further.

It expects a recovery later in the year as import demand eases and the current account deficit narrows.

“Poor corporate sentiment is showing through not just in potential capex decisions but also in views on the currency,” it said, citing conversations with onshore clients.

“We suspect this will play out in phases over the course of 2026 — a possible peso weakness first, followed by some recovery as the current account deficit shrinks due to the infrastructure and capex factors,” it added.

It also noted that while stretched short-peso positions could push the currency beyond P60, the exchange rate should eventually return to P57-P58 or firmer if the dollar softens.

The peso fell to P59.17 a dollar on Nov. 12, its weakest on record.

Source: Business World

Return to growth expected in 2027

Monetary authorities expect economic growth to return to target in 2027 with the Philippines again expected to underperform this year and the next, highlights of last month’s policy meeting showed.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth will likely “fall slightly below the government’s growth targets for 2025 and 2026,” mainly due to the impact of recent storms on agriculture, weaker construction activity and reduced demand for services, “before rising to within target by 2027.”

Policymakers also tagged an ongoing corruption scandal as possibly dampening investment sentiment and infrastructure project implementation, and said that continued uncertainties over US tariffs “also warrants continued monitoring.”

An effort to reduce fiscal leakages, they said, could help alleviate downside risks to growth from slower government spending by boosting budget efficiency and the economy’s prospects over the longer term.

GDP growth slumped to 4.0 percent in the third quarter from 5.5 percent in April-June, well below the 2025 goal of 5.5-6.0 percent and all but cementing a third straight year of below-target results.

Growth was higher last year at 5.7 percent but missed the objective of 6.0-6.5 percent. A year earlier it was 5.5 percent, also below the 6.0-7.0 percent goal. The economy last outperformed in 2022 when it topped the 6.5- to 7.5-percent target by growing 7.6 percent.

Economic managers will be reviewing their assumptions next week and the 2025 GDP goal is expected to be revised downwards. The 6.0- to 7.0-percent target for 2026 to 2028, meanwhile, could also be changed.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ policymaking Monetary Board lowered key interest rates for a fourth straight meeting last Oct. 9, citing softer GDP growth prospects and a benign inflation outlook.

With price growth expected to remain within expectations and following the third-quarter GDP slowdown, another cut is widely expected to be announced on Dec. 6.

Average inflation is expected to settle below the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target range at 1.7 percent this year. The forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were also lowered to 3.1 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, last month from 3.3 percent and 3.4 percent in August.

The projected rise will be due to changes in the country’s rice policies and base effects, the highlights of last month’s meeting stated. Lower global oil prices are expected to offset higher power prices and the “risks to inflation are seen to be limited as price pressures continue to ease.”

“On balance, the favorable inflation outlook and moderating domestic demand provided scope for a more accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic activity,” the highlights state.

“Future monetary policy adjustments will continue to be guided by evolving risks to inflation and growth.”

The BSP’s policy rate currently stands at 4.75 percent following last month’s 25-basis point reduction.

Source: Manila Times

Remittances growth hit 5-mo high of 3.7% in Sept

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) jumped by an annual 3.7% in September, the fastest pace in five months, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday.

Data from the central bank showed cash remittances rose to $3.12 billion in September from $3.01 billion in the same month in 2024.

This was the fastest growth since the 4% logged in April.

Month on month, cash remittances increased by 4.84% from $2.977 billion in August.

For the first nine months of the year, cash remittances sent through banks increased by 3.2% to $26.03 billion from $25.23 billion a year ago.

“The United States remained the top source of remittances to the Philippines during January-September 2025, followed by Singapore, and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement.

Cash remittances from the US accounted for 40.4% of the total in the nine-month period.

This was followed by Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (4.9%) the United Kingdom (4.8%), the United Arab Emirates (4.5%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%) and South Korea (2.5%).

Meanwhile, personal remittances went up by 3.8% to $3.46 billion in September from $3.34 billion a year earlier.

In the January-to-September period, personal remittances rose by 3.2% to $28.97 billion from $28.07 billion a year ago.

Personal remittances include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels as well as in-kind remittances.

Analysts said OFWs sent home more money starting September, as the holiday season approaches.

“The ‘ber’ months effect kicked in early, with OFWs sending more ahead of the long holiday season,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

He added that the strong labor market and a competitive peso also supported remittance growth in September.

The peso closed at P58.196 per dollar on Sept. 30, weakening by P1.066 or 1.87% from P57.13 on Aug. 29.

In September, the country’s unemployment rate improved to 3.8% from 3.9% in August. For the first nine months, the jobless rate stood at 4.1%, a tad higher than 4% in the same period last year.

“The onset of ‘ber’ months marks the start of the holiday season for Filipinos. Thus, we may expect OFWs to send their earnings to their families here for the celebrations and gatherings,” Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt M. Erece said.

Mr. Erece said remittance growth could be faster from October to December, before stabilizing in January 2026.

“For the fourth quarter, expect remittances to stay resilient and peak in December. BSP’s 3% full-year growth target looks well within reach,” Mr. Ravelas likewise said.

The BSP expects cash remittances to grow by 3% to $35.5 billion this year.

Source: Business World