New Megacities Lie in the Path of Devastating Floods

Cyclone Ditwah brought Sri Lanka’s most damaging flooding in 20 years.

 Humanity’s future lies in some of the most vulnerable spots on the planet.

We’ve seen that in stark relief of late. A United Nations report last month concluded that the world’s population is increasingly crowded into a group of often low-lying, middle-income megacities in Asia and Africa.

Jakarta and Dhaka dethroned Tokyo’s long-held status as the world’s biggest city, with 42 million, 37 million and 33 million people respectively.1Mexico City and Sao Paulo were overtaken by Shanghai and Cairo among the global top 10. Bangkok, Delhi, Karachi, Lagos, Luanda and Manila were some of the fastest growing among metropolises of more than 10 million.

Many of these very regions have been hit by a devastating run of floods in recent weeks. The monsoon belt from Southeast Asia to West Africa is at the same time the swath of the globe that is urbanizing fastest, and the one where catastrophic rainfall is set to increase most dramatically. Nearly 1,000 people have been killed in a wave of storms that have stretched from Sri Lanka to Vietnam, with more than 442 dead in the north of Indonesia’s Sumatra island and at least 160 fatalities in southern Thailand.

Cities of the Future

The world's fastest-growing urban areas are mostly in Asia

Such disastrous events are hardly unprecedented. Most of our earliest civilizations grew up along inundation-prone river valleys, as evidenced by the near-universality of deluge myths. In the same rural areas of Southeast Asia that have been among the worst-hit by the rains of recent weeks, homes were traditionally built on stilts under steeply-pitched roofs to allow water to run away without doing harm. Local traditions often warn against building near wild rivers prone to bursting their banks.

The sophistication of this vernacular technology is under-appreciated, but — as with the more technical modelling that’s done to mitigate flash flooding in the modern urban environment — it’s inadequate to the challenges we’ll face as our planet warms.

With each degree that the local temperature rises, the atmosphere’s ability to hold moisture goes up by about 7%. That’s an immense amount when you consider that a cyclone can easily hold half a billion tons of water. Indigenous knowledge, like modern flood maps, is grounded in a historical understanding of how rainwater behaves — but the heating of our planet is making all those old predictions irrelevant.

The risks of this are greatest in the expanding megacities. The current rural population of about 1.5 billion will barely grow before heading into permanent decline in the 2040s, according to the UN, but two-thirds of population growth between now and 2050 will be in cities. About half of the billion new urbanites will be in just seven countries, most of them in the Asian and African monsoon belts: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Bangladesh and Ethiopia.

Unlike rural-dwellers who can often site their settlements in more stable locations, city migrants rarely have much choice about where to live. That’s why so many shantytowns are built on land previously neglected as too risky, from the landslide-prone hillsides of Brazil’s favelas and Venezuela’s barrios to the swamps that gave rise to slums in Mumbai’s Dharavi, Bangkok’s Khlong Toei and Lagos’s Makoko.

Unequal Burden

Source: Rentschler et al., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries. Nat Commun 13, 3527 (2022)

Precious few of these places have the sort of wealth to handle the engineering challenges of weather-proofing their built environment. Out of 1.8 billion flood-threatened people worldwide, just 11% are in high-income countries.

Unlike famine and infectious disease, tragic urban floods are rarely the result of absolute poverty. Instead, they’re most often the outcome of development that’s failing to keep pace with the problems it brings in its wake — cities whose allure is drawing people in so fast that infrastructure is incapable of moving at the same speed. The most damaging flooding over the past week in Thailand was in Hat Yai, a bustling tourist and shopping destination close to the Malaysian border that’s home to a special economic zone and one of the country’s busiest airports. In Sri Lanka, the fast-growing capital Colombo was worst-hit.

That puts a grave responsibility on municipal and national governments. All are counting on cities as the engines of growth over coming decades, but they’ll need to work hard in the face of natural disasters that will perpetually threaten to tear apart the urban fabric. The great centers of India, straining under water shortages and choking urban pollution, show what can happen to a country when urbanization starts to fail.

Bringing fresh water and global connections with them, rivers and coastlines have long been the lifeblood of the world’s great cities. As rising seas and devastating floods now make those same places increasingly unlivable, we must confront the possibility that these life-giving attributes could be their doom as well.

Source: Bloomberg

Extreme heat impact as PH reaches boiling point

Ten years ago, the world ga­thered in Paris, pens poised above a landmark agreement. The Paris Agreement, born of collective resolve, aimed to rewrite the climate narrative, setting ambitious goals to curb emissions and hold global warming at bay. As we mark this milestone a decade later, the question hangs heavy in the air: “Have we steered the ship away from the climate precipice, or are we merely rearranging deck chairs on a rapidly heating planet?”

A new report, a chilling testament to the escalating crisis of extreme heat, offers a stark reality check. “Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat,” a collaboration between Climate Central and World Weather Attribution, is a global analysis spanning the decade since the Paris accord. It reveals the extent to which our world has already been reshaped by rising temperatures and casts an ominous shadow on what lies ahead.

While the Paris Agreement has tempered some of the most catastrophic warming scenarios projected before 2015, the report underscores that the battle against extreme heat is far from won. As Friederike Otto, climate science professor at the Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, noted: “The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.”

The analysis paints a picture of a world grappling with extreme heat’s relentless advance. Since 2015, surging global temperatures have resulted in an average of 11 additional hot days each year. Beyond slightly warmer summers, this is a fundamental shift in weather patterns that pushes the boundaries of human and ecological tolerance. The report projects that even if current emission reduction pledges are fully honored (a monumental “if” in itself), the trajectory is still toward 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. This seemingly modest increase unleashes a cascade of dire consequences: events that are already highly impactful on people and ecosystems would be intolerably more severe.

 n Number of hot days per year in each country for global warming levels of 2.6 C and 4.0 C above preindustrial temperatures.PHOTO FROM THE REPORT ‘TEN YEARS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT: THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF EXTREME HEAT’

Today, extreme heat contributes to an estimated 500,000 deaths worldwide annually. The most vulnerable among us — the elderly, outdoor workers, those with preexisting health conditions and marginalized communities — bear its deadly brunt.

The implications of these global trends reverberate with urgency in the Philippines, an archipelago nation straddling the equator. Uniquely vulnerable to the intensifying impacts of extreme heat, the country can expect a relentless increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, with profound consequences across sectors.

Consequences for the nation

The health of Filipinos is on the line. As temperatures soar, heat-related illnesses and fatalities can surge, particularly in densely populated urban areas and among vulnerable populations lacking access to adequate cooling and health care. The agricultural sector, the lifeblood of many Filipino communities, faces a formidable threat.

Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts can decimate crops, imperiling food security and threatening the livelihoods of countless farmers. The Philippines’ critical infrastructure is also under siege. Extreme heat can strain the power grid, leading to blackouts and disruptions. It can buckle roads and transportation networks, disrupting commerce and everyday life.

As Kristina Dahl, vice president for Science at Climate Central, warns, “The Paris Agreement is helping many regions of the world avoid some of the worst possible outcomes of climate change, but make no mistake — we are still heading for a dangerously hot future.”

The government’s National Adaptation Plan (2023-2050) aims to fortify the nation against such climate impacts. But the stark reality is that a comprehensive Heat Action Plan is still under development.

The most urgent priority is for countries to dramatically increase their emission reduction targets, aligning their efforts with the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goals of limiting warming to 1.5 C or well below 2 C. Bold adaptation measures must be taken, and investments made to reduce the impacts of extreme heat to communities. This includes heat early warning systems that are effective at alerting the public about impending heat waves, and comprehensive heat action plans at the national and local levels.

Urban planning must promote cool roofs and incorporate accessible public transport systems that integrate cooling and shading. Educational campaigns can elevate public awareness, empowering citizens to protect themselves and their communities from extreme heat. Protection should be prioritized for the aforementioned most vulnerable. Intentional and equitable adap­tation efforts should include disaggregated data on gender, age and disability.

The future of extreme heat globally and in the Philippines hinges on the choices we make today. The world is at a crossroads: to choose between complacency and action, between a future defined by runaway warming, and a future where we protect the health and safety of all.

Source: Manila Times

Typhoons could slow PHL growth

The Philippine economy could face stronger inflationary pressures and slower growth as increasingly frequent and severe typhoons disrupt supply chains and farm production, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

“The Philippines is highly exposed to natural hazards, particularly typhoons, which are the most frequent and costliest climate shocks in the country,” the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific said in a Facebook post. “These events represent supply shocks, creating inflationary pressure and reducing economic activity.”

The IMF estimated that a Category 5 storm could raise headline inflation by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) and food inflation by 0.7 ppt, based on regional data from its latest Article IV consultation with Manila.

Super Typhoon Ragasa, locally named Nando, was one such storm that battered the country late last month, causing floods and an initial P1.38 billion in agricultural damage.

Data from the Department of Agriculture showed that the southwest monsoon and typhoons Mirasol, Nando and Opong have caused P7.71 billion in combined losses. Farmers and fisherfolk lost 472,701 metric tons in production and 205,016 hectares of farmland.

The IMF said such weather shocks could drag agricultural labor productivity by as much as 2.5% and shave 0.4 ppt off economic growth, with estimated damage amounting to about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Inflation accelerated to 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August, the fastest in six months, the Philippine Statistics Authority said. While slower than 1.9% a year earlier, the pickup reflected higher food prices after recent typhoons.

The agency said vegetable prices rose 19.4% in September, up from 10% in August — the steepest increase since January. Food inflation climbed to 0.8% from 0.6% in the previous month.

Average inflation this year stands at 1.7%, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) full-year target but slightly above the IMF’s 1.6% forecast.

The economy expanded by 5.4% in the first half, slower than last year’s 6.2% but in line with the IMF’s full-year outlook.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said growth might soften further in the third quarter due to typhoon-related disruptions but could still meet the lower end of the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% goal. The third-quarter GDP data will be released on Nov. 7.

The IMF said monetary authorities should carefully balance inflation control with the need to support growth after natural disasters. “Post-disaster, monetary policy must carefully weigh trade-offs between anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic recovery,” it said.

The BSP delivered its fourth straight 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut on Oct. 9, bringing its benchmark rate to a three-year low of 4.75%. It has reduced borrowing costs by 175 bps since August 2024.

“Fiscal policy is central to building climate resilience before disasters strike, to help mitigate the macro impacts of natural disasters,” the IMF added.

Source: Business World