Extreme heat impact as PH reaches boiling point

Ten years ago, the world ga­thered in Paris, pens poised above a landmark agreement. The Paris Agreement, born of collective resolve, aimed to rewrite the climate narrative, setting ambitious goals to curb emissions and hold global warming at bay. As we mark this milestone a decade later, the question hangs heavy in the air: “Have we steered the ship away from the climate precipice, or are we merely rearranging deck chairs on a rapidly heating planet?”

A new report, a chilling testament to the escalating crisis of extreme heat, offers a stark reality check. “Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat,” a collaboration between Climate Central and World Weather Attribution, is a global analysis spanning the decade since the Paris accord. It reveals the extent to which our world has already been reshaped by rising temperatures and casts an ominous shadow on what lies ahead.

While the Paris Agreement has tempered some of the most catastrophic warming scenarios projected before 2015, the report underscores that the battle against extreme heat is far from won. As Friederike Otto, climate science professor at the Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, noted: “The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.”

The analysis paints a picture of a world grappling with extreme heat’s relentless advance. Since 2015, surging global temperatures have resulted in an average of 11 additional hot days each year. Beyond slightly warmer summers, this is a fundamental shift in weather patterns that pushes the boundaries of human and ecological tolerance. The report projects that even if current emission reduction pledges are fully honored (a monumental “if” in itself), the trajectory is still toward 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. This seemingly modest increase unleashes a cascade of dire consequences: events that are already highly impactful on people and ecosystems would be intolerably more severe.

 n Number of hot days per year in each country for global warming levels of 2.6 C and 4.0 C above preindustrial temperatures.PHOTO FROM THE REPORT ‘TEN YEARS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT: THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF EXTREME HEAT’

Today, extreme heat contributes to an estimated 500,000 deaths worldwide annually. The most vulnerable among us — the elderly, outdoor workers, those with preexisting health conditions and marginalized communities — bear its deadly brunt.

The implications of these global trends reverberate with urgency in the Philippines, an archipelago nation straddling the equator. Uniquely vulnerable to the intensifying impacts of extreme heat, the country can expect a relentless increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, with profound consequences across sectors.

Consequences for the nation

The health of Filipinos is on the line. As temperatures soar, heat-related illnesses and fatalities can surge, particularly in densely populated urban areas and among vulnerable populations lacking access to adequate cooling and health care. The agricultural sector, the lifeblood of many Filipino communities, faces a formidable threat.

Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts can decimate crops, imperiling food security and threatening the livelihoods of countless farmers. The Philippines’ critical infrastructure is also under siege. Extreme heat can strain the power grid, leading to blackouts and disruptions. It can buckle roads and transportation networks, disrupting commerce and everyday life.

As Kristina Dahl, vice president for Science at Climate Central, warns, “The Paris Agreement is helping many regions of the world avoid some of the worst possible outcomes of climate change, but make no mistake — we are still heading for a dangerously hot future.”

The government’s National Adaptation Plan (2023-2050) aims to fortify the nation against such climate impacts. But the stark reality is that a comprehensive Heat Action Plan is still under development.

The most urgent priority is for countries to dramatically increase their emission reduction targets, aligning their efforts with the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goals of limiting warming to 1.5 C or well below 2 C. Bold adaptation measures must be taken, and investments made to reduce the impacts of extreme heat to communities. This includes heat early warning systems that are effective at alerting the public about impending heat waves, and comprehensive heat action plans at the national and local levels.

Urban planning must promote cool roofs and incorporate accessible public transport systems that integrate cooling and shading. Educational campaigns can elevate public awareness, empowering citizens to protect themselves and their communities from extreme heat. Protection should be prioritized for the aforementioned most vulnerable. Intentional and equitable adap­tation efforts should include disaggregated data on gender, age and disability.

The future of extreme heat globally and in the Philippines hinges on the choices we make today. The world is at a crossroads: to choose between complacency and action, between a future defined by runaway warming, and a future where we protect the health and safety of all.

Source: Manila Times

Typhoons could slow PHL growth

The Philippine economy could face stronger inflationary pressures and slower growth as increasingly frequent and severe typhoons disrupt supply chains and farm production, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

“The Philippines is highly exposed to natural hazards, particularly typhoons, which are the most frequent and costliest climate shocks in the country,” the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific said in a Facebook post. “These events represent supply shocks, creating inflationary pressure and reducing economic activity.”

The IMF estimated that a Category 5 storm could raise headline inflation by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) and food inflation by 0.7 ppt, based on regional data from its latest Article IV consultation with Manila.

Super Typhoon Ragasa, locally named Nando, was one such storm that battered the country late last month, causing floods and an initial P1.38 billion in agricultural damage.

Data from the Department of Agriculture showed that the southwest monsoon and typhoons Mirasol, Nando and Opong have caused P7.71 billion in combined losses. Farmers and fisherfolk lost 472,701 metric tons in production and 205,016 hectares of farmland.

The IMF said such weather shocks could drag agricultural labor productivity by as much as 2.5% and shave 0.4 ppt off economic growth, with estimated damage amounting to about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Inflation accelerated to 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August, the fastest in six months, the Philippine Statistics Authority said. While slower than 1.9% a year earlier, the pickup reflected higher food prices after recent typhoons.

The agency said vegetable prices rose 19.4% in September, up from 10% in August — the steepest increase since January. Food inflation climbed to 0.8% from 0.6% in the previous month.

Average inflation this year stands at 1.7%, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) full-year target but slightly above the IMF’s 1.6% forecast.

The economy expanded by 5.4% in the first half, slower than last year’s 6.2% but in line with the IMF’s full-year outlook.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said growth might soften further in the third quarter due to typhoon-related disruptions but could still meet the lower end of the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% goal. The third-quarter GDP data will be released on Nov. 7.

The IMF said monetary authorities should carefully balance inflation control with the need to support growth after natural disasters. “Post-disaster, monetary policy must carefully weigh trade-offs between anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic recovery,” it said.

The BSP delivered its fourth straight 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut on Oct. 9, bringing its benchmark rate to a three-year low of 4.75%. It has reduced borrowing costs by 175 bps since August 2024.

“Fiscal policy is central to building climate resilience before disasters strike, to help mitigate the macro impacts of natural disasters,” the IMF added.

Source: Business World

Climate change and consumer behavior

Climate change has significantly intensified over the years, impacting lives around the world. In a recent Deloitte study, more than half of respondents said they have experienced at least one extreme weather event, pushing majority of them to agree that climate change is an emergency. Organizations are also feeling increasing pressure to integrate sustainability in their business agenda, with consumers demanding the same from producers of goods and services.

Globally, almost 60% of respondents said they make deliberate changes to their personal activities and purchasing habits to help mitigate environmental damage. Thirty-three percent also said that sustainability considerations are impacting where they bank and invest their money, and nearly 40% are paying more for sustainable product alternatives.

Beyond their personal steps toward sustainable consumption, people’s heightened environmental awareness extends to their workplace expectations. Among those surveyed by Deloitte, there has been a decline in the number of people who believe their employer is doing enough to address climate change and sustainability.

Moreover, almost 25% globally said they have considered switching jobs to work for a more sustainable company, and the same number of people say that they will consider a potential employer’s position on sustainability before accepting a job. This just proves that sustainability is slowly becoming less of just a consideration, and more of a key criterion in choosing where to work.

THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS’ EMOTIONAL INVESTMENT AND INITIATIVES

While concern for the environment spans across all generations, Gen Zs and millennials have expressed greater emotional engagement and more curiosity about the impact of climate change.

In the Philippines, climate change as a cause of anxiety is especially apparent. Over 90% of the country’s college-educated, working Gen Z and millennials have expressed worry about their environmental impact, and most of them intend to make better climate choices. Eighty percent are willing to pay more to purchase environmentally sustainable products or services, 95% primarily use recyclable or recycled plastics/paper to reduce environmental impact, and 90% improve their home to make it more sustainable.

These personal commitments signal a clear expectation: businesses must respond by offering more sustainable choices. As the younger generations increasingly align their actions and behaviors with environmental values, they look to companies to complement these efforts with sustainable products, services, and practices.

Furthermore, their appeal for businesses to prioritize environmental responsibility also bleeds into their employer choices, with 95% of them considering companies’ environmental credentials or policies when choosing a potential employer, and 30% of them changing jobs and/or industries due to concerns about the organization’s sustainability impact, higher compared globally.

Along with their expectations from businesses, Gen Zs and millennials are also calling for increased involvement from the government in mitigating climate change impacts. They urge policymakers to take climate action, fostering a sustainable future through policies and public-private partnerships.

Clearly, from choosing recycled packaging to calling for the government and businesses to prioritize sustainable practices, these generations are driving the shift in consumer behavior and employer expectations.

CLIMATE ACTION IS NO LONGER OPTIONAL BUT IMPERATIVE

The incorporation of sustainability-related actions to both personal and professional domains is already an existing principle for most, especially younger generations. As sustainability becomes embedded in people’s every-day lives and decision-making, businesses must evolve in response.

Organizations that fail to integrate it into their culture and operations risk losing climate-conscious customers and top talent. In this age of accountability, being sustainable shouldn’t just be a differentiator — it should be the baseline.

Source: Business World