Typhoons could slow PHL growth

The Philippine economy could face stronger inflationary pressures and slower growth as increasingly frequent and severe typhoons disrupt supply chains and farm production, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

“The Philippines is highly exposed to natural hazards, particularly typhoons, which are the most frequent and costliest climate shocks in the country,” the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific said in a Facebook post. “These events represent supply shocks, creating inflationary pressure and reducing economic activity.”

The IMF estimated that a Category 5 storm could raise headline inflation by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) and food inflation by 0.7 ppt, based on regional data from its latest Article IV consultation with Manila.

Super Typhoon Ragasa, locally named Nando, was one such storm that battered the country late last month, causing floods and an initial P1.38 billion in agricultural damage.

Data from the Department of Agriculture showed that the southwest monsoon and typhoons Mirasol, Nando and Opong have caused P7.71 billion in combined losses. Farmers and fisherfolk lost 472,701 metric tons in production and 205,016 hectares of farmland.

The IMF said such weather shocks could drag agricultural labor productivity by as much as 2.5% and shave 0.4 ppt off economic growth, with estimated damage amounting to about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Inflation accelerated to 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August, the fastest in six months, the Philippine Statistics Authority said. While slower than 1.9% a year earlier, the pickup reflected higher food prices after recent typhoons.

The agency said vegetable prices rose 19.4% in September, up from 10% in August — the steepest increase since January. Food inflation climbed to 0.8% from 0.6% in the previous month.

Average inflation this year stands at 1.7%, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) full-year target but slightly above the IMF’s 1.6% forecast.

The economy expanded by 5.4% in the first half, slower than last year’s 6.2% but in line with the IMF’s full-year outlook.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said growth might soften further in the third quarter due to typhoon-related disruptions but could still meet the lower end of the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% goal. The third-quarter GDP data will be released on Nov. 7.

The IMF said monetary authorities should carefully balance inflation control with the need to support growth after natural disasters. “Post-disaster, monetary policy must carefully weigh trade-offs between anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic recovery,” it said.

The BSP delivered its fourth straight 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut on Oct. 9, bringing its benchmark rate to a three-year low of 4.75%. It has reduced borrowing costs by 175 bps since August 2024.

“Fiscal policy is central to building climate resilience before disasters strike, to help mitigate the macro impacts of natural disasters,” the IMF added.

Source: Business World

Climate change and consumer behavior

Climate change has significantly intensified over the years, impacting lives around the world. In a recent Deloitte study, more than half of respondents said they have experienced at least one extreme weather event, pushing majority of them to agree that climate change is an emergency. Organizations are also feeling increasing pressure to integrate sustainability in their business agenda, with consumers demanding the same from producers of goods and services.

Globally, almost 60% of respondents said they make deliberate changes to their personal activities and purchasing habits to help mitigate environmental damage. Thirty-three percent also said that sustainability considerations are impacting where they bank and invest their money, and nearly 40% are paying more for sustainable product alternatives.

Beyond their personal steps toward sustainable consumption, people’s heightened environmental awareness extends to their workplace expectations. Among those surveyed by Deloitte, there has been a decline in the number of people who believe their employer is doing enough to address climate change and sustainability.

Moreover, almost 25% globally said they have considered switching jobs to work for a more sustainable company, and the same number of people say that they will consider a potential employer’s position on sustainability before accepting a job. This just proves that sustainability is slowly becoming less of just a consideration, and more of a key criterion in choosing where to work.

THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS’ EMOTIONAL INVESTMENT AND INITIATIVES

While concern for the environment spans across all generations, Gen Zs and millennials have expressed greater emotional engagement and more curiosity about the impact of climate change.

In the Philippines, climate change as a cause of anxiety is especially apparent. Over 90% of the country’s college-educated, working Gen Z and millennials have expressed worry about their environmental impact, and most of them intend to make better climate choices. Eighty percent are willing to pay more to purchase environmentally sustainable products or services, 95% primarily use recyclable or recycled plastics/paper to reduce environmental impact, and 90% improve their home to make it more sustainable.

These personal commitments signal a clear expectation: businesses must respond by offering more sustainable choices. As the younger generations increasingly align their actions and behaviors with environmental values, they look to companies to complement these efforts with sustainable products, services, and practices.

Furthermore, their appeal for businesses to prioritize environmental responsibility also bleeds into their employer choices, with 95% of them considering companies’ environmental credentials or policies when choosing a potential employer, and 30% of them changing jobs and/or industries due to concerns about the organization’s sustainability impact, higher compared globally.

Along with their expectations from businesses, Gen Zs and millennials are also calling for increased involvement from the government in mitigating climate change impacts. They urge policymakers to take climate action, fostering a sustainable future through policies and public-private partnerships.

Clearly, from choosing recycled packaging to calling for the government and businesses to prioritize sustainable practices, these generations are driving the shift in consumer behavior and employer expectations.

CLIMATE ACTION IS NO LONGER OPTIONAL BUT IMPERATIVE

The incorporation of sustainability-related actions to both personal and professional domains is already an existing principle for most, especially younger generations. As sustainability becomes embedded in people’s every-day lives and decision-making, businesses must evolve in response.

Organizations that fail to integrate it into their culture and operations risk losing climate-conscious customers and top talent. In this age of accountability, being sustainable shouldn’t just be a differentiator — it should be the baseline.

Source: Business World

Hurricane-proof skyscrapers vulnerable to less powerful windstorms

Tall buildings fare poorly in derechos*, say experts, raising questions over their resilience as climate crisis worsens

Skyscrapers built to withstand major hurricanes fare much more poorly in less powerful windstorms known as derechos, researchers have found, raising questions for cities worldwide over the resilience of tall buildings as the climate emergency worsens.

A team from Florida International University’s (FIU) civil and environmental engineering department studied the unexpectedly severe damage caused to buildings in Houston, a city with 50 skyscrapers of 492ft (150 metres) or more, during the 16 May 2024 derecho.

They found that the storm’s long line of fast-moving thunderstorms spawned “downburst” winds peaking at 90mph that bounced off the buildings and inflicted considerable damage, especially to the facades of structures designed to withstand stronger, category 4 hurricane-force wind speeds of up to 156mph.

The same buildings, by contrast, were virtually unscathed during category 1 Hurricane Beryl in July, when sustained wind speeds were similar to those of the earlier derecho, but without their more erratic, up and down nature, or explosive bursts at or near ground level.

The results were published on Friday by the peer-reviewed science website Frontiers in Built Environment. The FIU study focused on five of Houston’s tallest and most iconic buildings but, the researchers say, it could have profound implications for cities elsewhere as the climate crisis and soaring ocean temperatures fuel stronger and more frequent severe weather events, including hurricanes, fires and floods.

They stress that the wind speeds in a derecho, which can vary from far below major hurricane strength to match or exceed it, is not as consequential as how that wind is dispersed. A “unique characteristic” of a downburst, they say, is how the wind blows outwards in all directions when it reaches the ground.

“When strong winds move through a city, they can bounce due to interference between tall buildings. This increases pressure on walls and windows, making damage more severe than if the buildings were isolated,” said Omar Metwally, an FIU doctoral student and the report’s co-author.

“On top of this, downbursts create intense, localized forces which can exceed typical design values for hurricanes, especially on the lower floors of tall buildings.”

Metwally called it a “one-two punch effect” that the FIU team predicts will become an even worse problem for states around the Gulf of Mexico, where a 0.34F rise per decade over the last half-century is twice the rate of oceans globally.

Amal Elawady, professor of structural and wind engineering at FIU, and the team’s leader, said the research would also have relevance in other countries, where regulations for building design and wind loads are often calculated primarily with hurricane categories in mind.

“It’s not only a US issue. Downbursts are also very common and very frequent in Europe and worldwide,” she said.

“How a building responds to a thunderstorm is different from the way they respond to hurricanes, so it’s something that needs to be considered, not just for the buildings, but also for the components, like the cladding, the envelope of the building.”

Metwally said he hoped the research would lead to a re-evaluation of regulations and design of future tall buildings, as well as urban planning, as officials became more aware of the complexity and potential negative outcomes of downburst events.

The FIU analysis focused on Houston’s Chevron Building Auditorium, CenterPoint Energy Plaza, El Paso Energy Building, RRI Energy Plaza, and Wedge International Tower, all built between 1962 and 2003 and between 518ft and 742ft tall. Construction standards require them to withstand winds up to 67 metres per second, or category 4 hurricane strength.

During last year’s derecho, facade panels were dislodged and cladding damaged, especially on corners and lower floors. Broken glass and other hazardous debris fell on to downtown streets and the aftermath brought significant socio-economic impacts including traffic disruptions, businesses temporarily closing, and a huge bill for clean-up and repairs.

The FIU team ran simulations of the downbursts and hurricanes on modeled replicas at the university’s Wall of Wind experimental facility in Miami, funded by the National Science Foundation. Suction on the sides of buildings was substantially more evident during downburst events, explaining the ripping away of cladding and broken windows that did not occur during the hurricane.

“It’s not likely that a tall building will fail under wind, either hurricane or downburst,” Elawady said.

“But it causes damage, debris and water intrusion, and once you have a broken window you have a change in the internal pressure in the building and then the total force on the building is different,” she said.

Ongoing and future FIU research will look at the effects of downbursts on transmission lines, lighting poles, telecommunication towers and low-rise buildings as well as more studies on skyscrapers.

“It’s a very complex problem that needs to be thoroughly studied, and we’re trying our best to better understand it,” Elawady said.

*A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms

Source: The Guardian