The Global Risks Report 2022

A divergent economic recovery from the crisis created by the pandemic risks deepening global divisions at a time when societies and the international community urgently need to collaborate to check COVID-19, heal its scars and address compounding global risks.

In some societies, rapid progress on vaccination, leaps forward on digitalization and a return to pre-pandemic growth rates herald better prospects for 2022 and beyond.

Others could be weighed down for years by struggles to apply even initial vaccine doses, combat digital divides and find new sources of economic growth. Widening disparities within and between countries will not only make it more difficult to control COVID-19 and its variants, but will also risk stalling, if not reversing, joint action against shared threats that the world cannot afford to overlook.

Last year’s edition of the Global Risks Report warned of potential knock-on economic risks that are now clear and present dangers. Supply chain disruptions, inflation, debt, labour market gaps, protectionism and educational disparities are moving the world economy into choppy waters that both rapidly and slowly recovering countries alike will need to navigate to restore social cohesion, boost employment and thrive.

These difficulties are impeding the visibility of emerging challenges, which include climate transition disorder, increased cyber vulnerabilities, greater barriers to international mobility, and crowding and competition in space.

Restoring trust and fostering cooperation within and between countries will be crucial to addressing these challenges and preventing the world from drifting further apart.

The 17th edition of the Global Risks Report identifies tensions that will result from diverging trajectories and approaches within and between countries and then examines the risks that could arise from such tensions. This year’s report also highlights the implications of these risks for individuals, governments and businesses.

The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which has underpinned the report since 2006, was refreshed this year to gather new and broader insights from nearly 1,000 global experts and leaders who responded. The 2021-2022 GRPS includes the following sections:

– COVID-19 Hindsight invites respondents to opine on the reverberations of the crisis, allowing comparability with the results from the previous year.

– Future Outlook captures respondent sentiment, informing our analysis of how individual contexts may influence global risk perceptions and affect mitigation.

– Horizon captures respondents’ perceived trajectory and sense of urgency of global risks, informing our analysis of choices and trade-offs that decisionmakers may face.

– Severity ranks potential damage while Effects asks respondents to consider cascading impacts in conjunction with the severity of the risk itself.

– International Mitigation asks respondents to assess international efforts in 15 global governance areas to identify achievements and areas of opportunity for global action and cooperation.

– Open questions on risks, trends and warning signs source expert knowledge.

This year the Global Risks Report also draws on the views of over 12,000 country-level leaders who identified critical short-term risks to their 124 countries, gathered through the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey. The areas highlighted in these responses are likely to inform national decision-making and provide a perspective on how short-term risk national priorities may compare with global risks and perspectives.

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Source: WEF

Jobless rate inches up in December

The Philippines’ jobless rate rose month on month in December, as more Filipinos joined the workforce amid increased business activity and relaxed mobility curbs during the holidays.

For the full-year 2021, the unemployment rate — the share of the unemployed to the total labor force — eased to 7.8%. This was lower than the 10.4% in 2020 when strict lockdowns were implemented, but still lagged behind the pre-pandemic jobless rate.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said this was equivalent to 3.7 million unemployed Filipinos, lower than the 4.5 million in 2020.

Citing preliminary data, he noted this was still higher compared with the 5.1% unemployment rate or about 2.26 million jobless Filipinos in 2019.

According to the preliminary estimates of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) latest Labor Force Survey (LFS) the December unemployment rate inched up to 6.6%, compared with 6.5% in November.

In absolute terms, the number of unemployed Filipinos increased by 113,000 to 3.272 million in December, from 3.159 million in November.

“However, this was more than offset by the larger increase in the labor force participation rate, which improved to 65.1% from 64.2%,” the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said in a statement.

This was the highest labor force participation rate since the monthly LFS began in 2021 and the 64.2% in April 2014, using the quarterly survey.

Around 910,000 Filipinos entered the labor force in December, bringing the total labor force size to 49.546 million.

Employed Filipinos rose month on month by 797,000 to 46.274 million in December. Employment rate stood at 93.4% that month, slightly lower than 93.5% seen in November.

“This brings net employment creation to 3.7 million above pre-pandemic levels,” NEDA said.

JOB QUALITY IMPROVES

Meanwhile, the quality of available jobs likely improved as the underemployment rate fell to 14.7% in December from the four-month high of 16.7% in November. This translated to 6.811 million employed Filipinos looking for additional work or longer working hours, down by 806,000 from 7.617 million in November.

This brought the underemployment rate to 15.9% in 2021, an improvement from 16.4% in 2020 but higher still than the 13.8% in 2019.

This meant that about seven million employed Filipinos last year are looking for additional work and longer working hours. However, this was more than the 6.4 million and 5.8 million estimated in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

A Filipino worker logged an average of 39.7 hours per week in December, a tad higher than 39.6 hours in November.

Services sector accounted for 56.6% of total employment, lower than the 58.1% share in November. Meanwhile, agriculture and industry’s share increased to 25.6% (from 24.5%) and 17.8% (from 17.4%), respectively.

The NEDA said that the net jobs created in December signal that the economy is on the right track to recovery.

“By accelerating the vaccination program and safely reopening more sectors of the economy, we were able to generate more and better jobs for the people,” NEDA Director-General and Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua was quoted in the statement as saying.

“We look forward to building on these gains in 2022 now that we have contained the spread of Omicron and have reverted back to Alert Level 2 in the National Capital Region and several provinces,” Mr. Chua said.

Virus containment and better growth prospects coaxed workers to seek out opportunities, especially with the increased business activity during the holidays, ING Bank N.V. Manila Branch Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.

“The increase in net jobs created reminds us of the positive impact of virus containment and reopening,” Mr. Mapa said in a note.

The government placed Metro Manila and other provinces under the more relaxed Alert Level 2 starting November 2021, as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases fell.

Meanwhile, Trade Union Congress of the Philippines Spokesperson Alan A. Tanjusay said the uptick in unemployment in December was due to tighter mobility curbs on the unvaccinated population.

“The coercive ‘no vaccine, no ride’ policy, and restrictive and prohibitive ‘no vaccine, no entry,’ and ‘no vaccine, no work’ policies and the cost of testing on workers also contributed largely to the joblessness in the labor market,” Mr. Tanjusay said in an e-mail interview.

Mr. Mapa is still uncertain if the economy will completely recover to pre-pandemic levels as the labor market will “likely to deteriorate” in January, reflecting the impact of Typhoon Odette and the Omicron-driven COVID-19 surge.

“Although we could very well likely see improvements in the job market as early as February, the disruption caused by Omicron and Odette may have sapped some momentum from the recovery process,” Mr. Mapa said.

For University of the Philippines School of Labor and Industrial Relations Professor Emily Christi A. Cabegin, the stricter mobility curbs in January likely hampered employment recovery in labor-intensive industries.

“[The movement restriction] will likely lead to higher unemployment and underemployment, as well as lower labor force participation as more people are discouraged from entering the labor force or more workers who lost their jobs withdrew from the labor force altogether,” Ms. Cabegin said.

Metro Manila and surrounding provinces returned to stricter Alert Level 3 at the start of the year to combat the Omicron surge. It was reverted to Alert Level 2 in February.

Typhoon Odette (international name: Rai) swept through parts of the Visayas and Mindanao, leaving damage to agriculture and infrastructure worth P13.3 billion and P17.19 billion, respectively, in December last year.

Source: Business World

Phl reopening borders to foreign tourists

The Philippines will reopen its borders to fully-vaccinated foreign nationals for tourism and business purposes as the government seeks to boost its pandemic recovery efforts.

Under Resolution No. 159, the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) said international travelers from non-visa requiring countries may enter the country starting 10 February.

They should present state-recognized documents as proof of their Covid-19 vaccination, such as the World Health Organization International Certificates of Vaccination and Prophylaxis, VaxCertPH, or a digital certificate of the foreign government which has accepted VaxCertPH under a reciprocal arrangement unless otherwise permitted by the IATF.

Minors or those aged below 18 were exempted from the requirement of full vaccination and providing proof of vaccination status before boarding their flights.

All foreign travelers, however, should hold passports valid for at least six months at the time of their arrival, as well as tickets back to their home countries or next country of destination, the task force said.

They were also required to observe the existing testing and quarantine rules for fully-vaccinated Filipinos who wish to return to the Philippines.

The new IATF resolution covered non-visa requiring countries, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States of America.

The full list of countries covered by the new policy could be accessed through the website of the Department of Foreign Affairs.

Uniform protocols On the other hand, the government updated its protocols for returning overseas Filipinos regardless of their countries of origin.

It came after the IATF had suspended the Covid-19 risk classifications of territories, commonly known as the “green,” “yellow,” and “red” lists.

Under the updated guidelines, which were set to take effect on 1 February, all inbound Filipino travelers — regardless of their vaccination status — should present negative swab tests taken 48 hours before their departure from their host countries.

They were no longer required to observe mandatory facility-based quarantine, but should self-monitor for any Covid-19 symptom for seven days — with the first day being the date of arrival.

Returning Filipinos were also mandated to report any manifestation of Covid-19 to the local government units of their destinations.

For unvaccinated and partially vaccinated Filipinos, as well as individuals whose vaccination status cannot be validated, they were required to undergo facility-based quarantine until the release of their negative swab tests on the fifth day. They should complete the remaining nine-day quarantine at their homes.

According to the IATF, the local government units of their destination and its respective barangay health emergency response teams were tasked to monitor the arriving passengers undergoing home quarantine.

Children aged 12 and below who cannot be vaccinated should follow the quarantine protocols of their parents or their guardians traveling with them.

The government’s decision to lift up the two-year restriction on foreign tourists was meant to boost the economy, Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles said.

“With this, the tourism industry will now recover,” he said. “It will help in generating jobs and for our economic growth.”

A major driver of the Philippine economy, tourism accounted for nearly 13 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2019. The tourism industry also provides sources of income to millions of Filipinos across the archipelago.

The country saw a significant drop in foreign arrivals last year after it closed its borders amid the pandemic, receiving only nearly 1.4 million visitors, 83 percent lower compared to nearly 8.2 million arrivals in 2019.

Meanwhile, the health department assured Filipinos that the new measure allowing vaccinated travelers to skip facility-based quarantine won’t threaten public health.

“The public should not worry,” said Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, who is also spokesperson of the agency. “Most of the Covid-19 cases in our communities did not come from returning overseas Filipinos.”

Source: Daily Tribune