Economy may see faster growth in 2026, 2027

The Philippine economy may expand at a faster pace this year and in 2027, supported by household consumption and softer inflation, the United Nations (UN) said, as the country rebounds from a corruption scandal.

In its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report, the UN projected the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.7% this year and 6.1% in 2027.

“In the Philippines, low inflation, robust labor market conditions, and steady remittance inflows have buoyed consumer spending, while government spending and investment have further supported growth,” the UN said.

The UN’s forecasts are both within the revised government’s 5-6% growth target for this year and within the 5.5-6.5% target for 2027.

It also noted that GDP growth likely averaged 5% in 2025, below the government’s 5.5-6.5% target and the actual 5.7% growth in 2024.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said the Philippines’ economic growth may have slowed to 4.8% to 5% in 2025, due to the controversy on anomalous flood control projects that affected government spending and hurt business and consumer confidence.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release official fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP data on Jan. 29.

Despite this, the Philippines is projected to be the second-fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year and in 2027.

Vietnam is projected to grow by 6% this year, followed by the Philippines (5.7%), Cambodia (5.1%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.0%), Laos (3.8%), Timor-Leste (3.3%), Myanmar (3%), Thailand (2%), Singapore (1.8%), and Brunei (1.5%).

For 2027, Vietnam is still likely to post the fastest growth at 6.2%, followed by the Philippines (6.1%), Cambodia (5.5%), Indonesia (5.2%), Malaysia (4.5%), Laos (4%), Timor-Leste (3.2%), Myanmar (3%), Thailand (2.6%), Singapore (2%), and Brunei (2.1%).

The Philippines’ forecast is above than the UN’s projected average growth of 4.4% for East Asia this year and in 2027.

At the same time, the UN also anticipates inflation settling at 2.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, slower than the BSP’s 3.2% forecast for 2026, and 3% in 2027.

Headline inflation picked up to 1.8% in December, which brought the full-year average to 1.7% in 2025.

Source: Business World

Philippines may grow below 4% in near term

Philippine economic growth may fall below 4% in the near term as the billion‑peso flood control scandal drags on, affecting government spending and dampening consumption and sentiment, Nomura Global Markets Research said.

“I think going forward, these spillover effects (from the graft scandal) will also expand,” Nomura Chief Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economist Euben Paracuelles said.

The scandal, which curbed state spending last year, is expected to dampen household consumption and business investment amid weaker sentiment, he added.

“If the drag is now sort of becoming more broad-based, not just the drop in government spending, you’ll see growth coming potentially below 4%, at least in the near term,” he said.

Nomura now expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.3% in 2026 from 5.6% previously.

This is still within the government’s recently revised 5-6% target this year.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said growth targets were lowered through 2027, after GDP growth likely slowed to 4.8-5% in 2025 amid the flood control controversy.

The government cut its 2026 projection to 5-6% and to 5.5-6.5% for 2027 from the earlier 6-7% range. The 2028 target was retained at 6-7%.

Mr. Paracuelles anticipates that the government will roll out catch-up spending plans, possibly in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the Philippines may earn a credit rating upgrade if the government manages to resolve the flood control corruption issue within a year, Mr. Paracuelles said.

“The key for me is 12 months from here, when they need to decide on whether they need to upgrade the Philippines, I think it’s still quite uncertain,” he said.

“If, at that point there will be some resolution to the corruption scandal, they could potentially upgrade the Philippines to ‘A-,’ right? But on the other hand, if there’s still no clarity, they could potentially — the risk I see is from ‘positive,’ we go back to ‘stable,’” he added.

Last year, former Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the multibillion-peso flood control corruption mess may have derailed the country’s chances of earning a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings.

S&P said it kept its long-term “BBB+” and short-term “A-2” credit ratings on the Philippines, as well as its “positive” outlook.

A positive outlook means the Philippines’ credit rating could be raised over the next two years if improvements are sustained.

At the same time, Economy Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillion said the government expects the peso to move “sideways” after hitting a fresh low on Jan. 7.

“It really depends on what’s happening in the US as well versus what’s happening with our country. I think right now with the recent move of the US, everybody’s still weighing in. Is this a good or a bad thing?” she said in the same program on Thursday.

“Others will still adopt a wait-and-see attitude over the next few days,” she added.

The peso hit a record low on Jan. 7, closing at P59.355.

Source: Business World

Unemployment rate drops to 4.4% in Nov

The number of jobless Filipinos dropped in November, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Wednesday, as the labor market improved.

The country’s unemployment rate was recorded at 4.4 percent, from October’s three-month high of 5.5 percent but higher than November last year’s 3.2 percent.

This translates to 2.25 million unemployed Filipinos, lower than the 2.54 million recorded in October 2025 but higher than 1.66 million in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, underemployment — which counts as those looking for more work or an extra job — declined to 10.4 percent, down from 12.0 percent and 10.8 percent a month and year earlier, respectively.

The number of underemployed individuals stood at 5.11 million. These are workers who express a desire for additional hours in their current job, an additional job, or a new job with longer hours.

Employment rate, meanwhile, recorded an uptick of 95.6 percent, up from 95.0 percent recorded a month earlier but lower than the 96.8 percent last year. The number of individuals with jobs reached 49.26 million.

The country’s Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in November was registered at 64.0, higher than the 63.6 percent a month earlier but lower than the 64.6 percent recorded a year earlier.

Source: Manila Times