Unemployment rate drops to 4.4% in Nov

The number of jobless Filipinos dropped in November, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Wednesday, as the labor market improved.

The country’s unemployment rate was recorded at 4.4 percent, from October’s three-month high of 5.5 percent but higher than November last year’s 3.2 percent.

This translates to 2.25 million unemployed Filipinos, lower than the 2.54 million recorded in October 2025 but higher than 1.66 million in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, underemployment — which counts as those looking for more work or an extra job — declined to 10.4 percent, down from 12.0 percent and 10.8 percent a month and year earlier, respectively.

The number of underemployed individuals stood at 5.11 million. These are workers who express a desire for additional hours in their current job, an additional job, or a new job with longer hours.

Employment rate, meanwhile, recorded an uptick of 95.6 percent, up from 95.0 percent recorded a month earlier but lower than the 96.8 percent last year. The number of individuals with jobs reached 49.26 million.

The country’s Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in November was registered at 64.0, higher than the 63.6 percent a month earlier but lower than the 64.6 percent recorded a year earlier.

Source: Manila Times

Philippine 2025 inflation slows to 1.7%, a 9-yr low

Inflation in the Philippines climbed at the end of 2025 as late-season storms and holiday demand pushed food prices upward, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported.

The December reading came in at 1.8 percent, up from 1.5 percent in November. Even so, inflation remained subdued, staying within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.2- to 2-percent forecast range for the month.

It was also above the 1.5-percent median estimate of 11 economists polled by the Inquirer.

The result capped 2025 with a full-year average inflation rate of 1.7 percent, the slowest since 2016, when it stood at 1.3 percent. This marks the 10th consecutive month that inflation undershot the central bank’s 2- to 4-percent target.

Higher food costs

Reversing the previous month’s decline in food costs, higher prices in December were driven by late-season typhoons and holiday demand, PSA Undersecretary and National Statistician Dennis Mapa said.

Food and nonalcoholic beverages, which make up nearly a third of the consumer basket, rose 1.4 percent in December. This accounted for 97.5 percent of the overall inflationary pressure for the month.

According to Mapa, while rice prices continued to decline, higher vegetable costs—driven by Typhoon “Uwan’s” impact on farms—surged to 11.6 percent in December, up from 4 percent, offsetting the rice price drop.

Holiday demand also contributed to the pressure, with price increases seen in meat, flour, bread and bakery products.

Economists at Chinabank Research, who expect inflation to inch up in 2026, said inflation remains under control despite the December uptick.

“Still, barring new shocks, price pressures are projected to remain manageable moving forward,” they said. “This outlook for benign inflation would likely allow the BSP to offer more support to the economy through additional policy rate cuts.”

On Dec. 11, the BSP had already slashed the policy rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent to cushion the economy from the third-quarter slowdown, partly due to the widening fallout from the flood control scandal.

Purchasing power

John Paolo Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said price pressures were broadly contained for the year, but typhoon-related spikes could temper fourth-quarter growth.

“This low inflation (full-year average) supports household purchasing power, but the disaster-related price increases likely coincided with lost incomes and disrupted activity, which could temper consumption and shave some momentum off Q4 growth,” he said.

“Overall, inflation is not the constraint, as the bigger issue for Q4 is weather shocks and execution, not just prices,” Rivera added.

Reflecting cautious optimism, Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the full-year average gives consumers more spending power, but the December spike shows that short-term risks remain.

“The impact is mixed: higher food prices may pinch wallets in the short term, but overall low inflation supports consumption and keeps the economy resilient. Still, upside risks to inflation remain,” he said.

For its part, the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DepDev) said the Philippine economy was on track to remain resilient against price pressures despite ongoing headwinds.

Momentum

“Building on this momentum, the government will continue to pursue prudent fiscal and monetary coordination and advance structural reforms to sustain the downward inflation trend,” DepDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said.

Meanwhile, the Department of Finance (DOF) said the record-low full-year average inflation reflected the government’s “strong, coordinated approach,” noting that it came in below the 4.2 percent global inflation rate projected by the International Monetary Fund for 2025.

“The DOF is committed to implement necessary measures to keep inflation manageable and ensure that Filipino families are protected from price shocks,” Finance Secretary Frederick Go said.

Source: Inquirer

PHL trims 2026, 2027 growth goals

The Philippine government lowered its economic growth targets for this year and 2027, with the impact of the corruption scandal still expected to be felt in the first half, according to Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan.

At a briefing on Monday, Mr. Balisacan said the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) had lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth targets to 5%-6% for 2026 and 5.5%-6.5% for 2027, following a meeting in December.

These new targets are slightly lower than the earlier 6-7% growth goal for 2026 to 2028.

However, the DBCC retained the 6-7% GDP growth goal for 2028. President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s term will end in mid-2028.

“The emerging number, growth scenario for 2025, is something like 4.8-5%,” Mr. Balisacan said. “But if you achieve 5% for the entire year, because the first three quarters’ average is already 5%, that still puts the economy into one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia.”

If realized, the 2025 GDP growth would be much slower than the 5.7% GDP growth in 2024 and below the government’s 5.5-6.5% GDP target.

This will also mark the fourth straight year that the Philippines will miss its GDP growth target.

Economic growth slowed to an over four-year low of 4% in the third quarter, as the flood control scandal affected government spending and hurt business and consumer confidence.

“The developments last year are likely still to be felt this year, although in a diminishing effect, and so we expect growth perhaps in the first quarter or at least in the first half to be still [not quite] as rosy as we would want it to be,” Mr. Balisacan said.

A corruption scandal involving flood control projects has weighed on government spending and household consumption following Mr. Marcos’ exposé in his fourth State of the Nation Address last July. 

Mr. Balisacan said the economic team still expects consumption to drive the economy despite massive budget cuts for infrastructure projects, specifically on flood control.

“Consumption, that’s likely going to be still, supported by employment, growth… and remittances. But we will also expect the rebound of consumer confidence… We do expect that the broad economy will grow as sufficiently strong especially toward the second half,” he said. 

Mr. Balisacan said economic activity should accelerate later in 2026 as governance reforms and improvements in public sector systems take effect, as reflected in the national budget. 

He said the downward revision to the targets reflected global and domestic uncertainties and follows similar assessments by multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The IMF last month trimmed the 2026 growth projection for the Philippines to 5.6% from 5.7% previously. The ADB sees the Philippines growing at 5.7%, while the World Bank expects GDP growth at 5.4%.

Mr. Balisacan said the recalibration of growth targets will not derail fiscal planning, as authorities remain focused on improving the quality of growth.

He cited increased budget allocations for health, education, social protection and job creation as key to making expansion more inclusive and accelerating poverty reduction.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the lowered targets reflect “realism” but also underscore that structural reforms are progressing too slowly.

“It signals that we’re under pressure to lift productivity and attract investments. Without bold action — on infrastructure, ease of doing business, and FDI (foreign direct investments) — we risk settling for a 5-6% growth ceiling instead of breaking past 7%,” he said via Viber.

“The message is clear: execution matters now more than ever.”

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said lowering official growth targets can bolster policy credibility by bringing expectations closer to prevailing economic conditions and reducing the risk of repeated forecast misses.

“However, if not accompanied by visible, credible reform action, it also risks signaling structural weaknesses in the economy and in governance under the current administration,” he said.

“Ultimately, how targets are framed and what policy measures accompany them will determine whether trimming boosts credibility or fuels concerns about economic weaknesses.”

Source: Business World