Philippine annual inflation at 1.7% in September

Philippine annual inflation quickened for a second month, but it was still below the central bank’s 2% to 4% comfort range for the year, reinforcing expectations that a policy decision this week will be a close call between cutting rates and pausing.

The consumer price index rose 1.7% in September led by higher food prices, up from August’s 1.5%, the statistics agency said on Tuesday. It was below the 2.0% median forecast in a Reuters poll, and brought year-to-date average inflation to 1.7%.

The September rate, the fastest since March, comes just days before the central bank’s penultimate policy meeting of the year on Thursday.

“For the upcoming policy meeting, the Monetary Board will review newly available information and reassess the impact of prior monetary actions in light of evolving economic conditions and their implications for inflation and growth,” the Philippine central bank said in a statement.

At its August policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) signalled another reduction was still possible this year before it concludes its easing cycle.

Ahead of the data, HSBC economist Aris Dacanay said in a note the October 9 policy decision could be a close call between a pause and another rate cut.

Mr. Dacanay said he expects the BSP to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 5.0%, following three consecutive quarter-point reductions. He added that a 25-basis-point cut remains possible at the BSP’s December meeting.

“While waiting for more data to come, inflation concerns, particularly on food, should also weigh on the decision,” Mr. Dacanay said.

Food inflation in September slightly accelerated to 0.8% from 0.6% in August, driven mainly by higher prices of vegetables, tubers, plantains, and cooking bananas, the statistics agency said.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was at 2.6%, close to the previous month’s 2.7%.

Source: Business World

Philippines declines a spot in economic freedom index

The Philippines slipped one spot in a global index on economic freedom, despite improvements in some areas, according to the Canada-based think tank Fraser Institute.

The country ranked 62^nd out of 165 economies in conservative think tank’s Economic Freedom of the World report, which uses 2023 data. In the previous year’s index, the Philippines ranked 61^st place.

This was the Philippines’ lowest placement in the index in two years, or since it ranked 68^th in 2021.

Despite the lower ranking, the country’s score inched up to 7.05 out of 10 in 2023 from 7.01 in 2022.

Among Asia-Pacific jurisdictions, the Philippines lagged behind Hong Kong (8.55), Singapore (8.50), New Zealand (8.33), Australia (8.03), Taiwan (8.03), Japan (7.83), Malaysia (7.56), South Korea (7.53), Thailand (7.10), and Brunei Darussalam (7.09).

However, the Philippines was ahead of Indonesia (6.96), Mongolia (6.83), Cambodia (6.79), Vietnam (6.21), China (6.13), Papua New Guinea (6.09), Fiji (6.08), Timor-Leste (5.97), Laos (5.65), and Myanmar (4.46).

The index measures the degree to which citizens are allowed to make their own economic choices through five areas: size of government, legal system and property rights, sound money, freedom to trade internationally, and regulation.

The Philippines had its highest score in the sound money category with 9.01, ranking 34^th out of the 165 countries, slightly lower than its previous score of 9.04.

The country’s score in size of government went up to 7.88 from 7.77 previously. Its current ranking was at 21^st place from 26^th previously.

Manila’s score in regulation also went up to 6.65 (64^th) from 6.55 (67^th) previously.

However, the country yet again performed worst in the legal system and property rights area with a score of 4.57, ranking 109^th. Its score slightly improved from 4.55 previously.

Meanwhile, its score in freedom to trade internationally stood at 7.15, ranking 86^th from 87^th previously.

Foundation for Economic Freedom President Calixto V. Chikiamco said that the Philippines continues to underperform in the areas of legal system and property rights and trade freedom.

“Particularly in agricultural trade. We are still protecting our agricultural sector with quotas, high tariffs, and other forms of restrictions,” he said in a Viber message.

Meanwhile, Mr. Chikiamco said that the previous administration’s unilateral cancellation of the contracts with the private water concessionaires and refusal to abide by the decision of arbitration proceedings have impacted the country’s overall ranking.

“That and other instances where contracts aren’t honored cause low ratings of the country [in legal system and property rights],” he added.

However, Mr. Chikiamco said that the slight dip in the country’s ranking may also be attributed to improvements in other countries.

“The Philippines can fare better by dismantling agricultural protectionism, reforming an inefficient and corrupt judicial system, removing the Filipino First and Filipino Only provisions in the Constitution, and forging more free trade agreements with more economies,” he added.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said that the results of the index suggest that the Philippines is making progress, but “other economies are reforming faster and more comprehensively.”

“We continue to lag in critical areas like rule of law, regulatory quality, judicial independence, and most especially corruption control, which weigh down its overall ranking,” he said in a Viber message.

To improve, he said that there is a need for the Philippines to strengthen its institutional frameworks.

“It must also enforce property rights, simplify regulations, and promote a more transparent and predictable policy environment to boost investor confidence and economic dynamism,” Mr. Rivera said.

According to the Fraser Institute, economic freedom has been declining since the pandemic.

“Global economic freedom peaked in 2019 but has declined in each of the four years since then, which hasn’t happened since we began measuring economic freedom more than 25 years ago,” Matthew Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute, said in the report.

Hong Kong topped the latest index, followed by Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, the United States, Ireland, Australia and Taiwan (tied for 7^th), Denmark, and the Netherlands.

However, the Fraser Institute expects US President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs to further depress US economic freedom.

“When countries move to restrict trade freedom, other areas of economic freedom, such as size of government, sound money, and regulatory freedom, often soon follow,” it added.

Meanwhile, the lowest scoring economies on the index were Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Algeria, Iran, Myanmar, Argentina, Syria, Libya, and Chad.

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Source: Business World

IMF cuts Philippines growth forecast amid challenges

Philippine economic growth is expected to moderate this year and in 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions across the globe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.4% for this year, slightly lower than its 5.5% projection in July.

If realized, gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be at the low end of the National Government’s 5.5-6.5% target band this year.

For 2026, the IMF also cut its growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.9% previously. However, this is below the government’s 6-7% target for next year.

The IMF said the economy is expected to remain resilient, but downside risks warrant “close attention.”

“Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,” IMF Mission Head Elif Arbatli Saxegaard said at a briefing after the conclusion of the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines on Wednesday.

“On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses. On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms would support investor confidence and the fiscal multiplier and raise potential growth. Risks around inflation are broadly balanced.”

Ms. Saxegaard said the growth outlook was revised to reflect the weaker-than-expected growth in the first half.

For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Ms. Saxegaard said growth will be affected by the higher tariffs imposed by the US on Philippine goods. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7.

“It will weigh on exports and investment,” she said.

She also noted growth will be “supported by monetary easing and recent legislative measures to promote private investment.”

Meanwhile, the IMF sees inflation averaging 1.6% this year, before picking up to 2.6% next year.

“The pickup in inflation is expected to be driven by (the) food and transport crisis,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “And that reflects essentially the decline in negative base effects that have been dragging down inflation this year. So, as those base effects recede, we expect a pickup.”

She said core inflation is expected to “remain muted” at 2.5% in 2026.

“The BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) has room for a slightly more accommodative stance to help bring inflation back to the target faster and reduce economic slack amid elevated downside risks to growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “Policy will need to remain data dependent amidst prevailing uncertainties around the output gap and the neutral rate, and two-sided risks to inflation.”

On Aug. 28, the central bank slashed its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) for a third consecutive time to 5%. It has cut the benchmark by a total of 150 bps since August last year.

CORRUPTION

Asked about recent corruption scandals involving some government projects, Ms. Saxegaard said the IMF will continue to monitor the developments.

“It’s not yet clear whether and how these allegations will impact investor and private sector confidence, as well as their perceptions and behavior,” she said.

The IMF welcomed recent reforms to reduce infrastructure gaps and promote foreign direct investment, but effective implementation is key.

“Enhancing fiscal governance and the rule of law and reducing corruption vulnerabilities are critical for inclusive and sustainable growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said.

The IMF urged the Philippine government to continue implementing gradual fiscal consolidation “to replenish fiscal buffers and support external balance.”

“The authorities should consider implementing concrete and durable tax measures to limit the need for restraint in priority spending which tends to have a larger impact on growth and disproportionately impacts the vulnerable,” she said.

Ms. Saxegaard suggested several tax measures including monitoring the cost of tax incentives and improving the efficiency of the value-added tax (VAT).

“On the tax administration side, better or enhanced use of data analytics and compliance risk management would, in our view, help support revenue mobilization,” she said. “On tax policy options, there are several measures that would have positive benefits. We do think that also monitoring the cost of tax incentives would be desirable as well as enhancing the efficiency of the VAT.”

Meanwhile, Ms. Saxegaard said that risks to the country’s financial system remain moderate as the banking sector has strong capital and liquidity buffers.

“Nonetheless, vulnerabilities in the real estate sector, strong bank interconnectedness with complex conglomerate structures, and fast-growing consumer credit warrant close monitoring,” she added.

The IMF Staff Report will be released between November and early December this year.

Source: Business World