Philippine economy likely to expand by 5.3% in 2026

The Philippine economy is likely to grow by 5.3% this year, driven by robust domestic demand, although private investment risks persist amid the graft scandal, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest Regional Economic Outlook quarterly update, AMRO sees Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 5.3% in 2026, unchanged from its annual consultation report released in November.

This is still within the government’s revised 5-6% GDP growth target for 2026.

“The picture for the Philippine economy is that it has been quite steady, but there are some headwinds against (this outlook) on the investment side,” AMRO Chief Economist Dong He said in a virtual news briefing on Wednesday.

“Private investment of course, needs to be supported by investor confidence, and the public investment had been affected by some of the, for example, flood control controversy,” Mr. He said.

If realized, the Philippines is expected to be the second fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year, after Vietnam’s 7.6%.

The country’s growth will likely outpace Cambodia (5.1%), Indonesia (5%), Laos (4.6%), Malaysia (4.4%), Singapore (3%), Myanmar (2.5%), Thailand (1.7%), and Brunei (1.6%).

The Philippines’ GDP growth would also be above the region’s average growth of 4.6% for 2026.

For 2025, AMRO said the Philippine economy likely grew by 5.2%, falling short of the government’s 5.5-6.5% target.

Mr. He also noted that the “fairly weak” third-quarter growth in 2025 prompted a downgrade in forecasts from the October update.

A flood control corruption scandal has weighed on growth, investor confidence and consumption.

In the third quarter, GDP grew by 4%, the weakest growth in over four years, bringing the nine-month average to 5%.

Fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP data will be released on Jan. 29.

Mr. He said private consumption, which accounts for over 70% of the economy, will continue to remain firm, but the corruption scandal hit the investment side, he added.

Meanwhile, AMRO kept its headline inflation forecast for the Philippines at 3.2% this year, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) full-year projection.

Inflation settled at 1.7% in 2025, the slowest pace in nine years or since 2016.

MAIN RISKS

Meanwhile, AMRO said climate-related risks and artificial intelligence (AI), which put pressure on the country’s service exports sector, are the two main risks for the Philippine economy.

Mr. He also said that while the economy has expanded “steadily,” growth remains below its pre-pandemic trajectory.

“What’s important is really to strengthen governance, strengthen investor confidence, and prioritize investments or prioritize public spending so the economy will become more resilient (against the main risks),” he said.

Last week, the government unveiled “big bold reforms” before the private sector to counter the slide in investor confidence amid a corruption scandal.

Mr. He said these risks highlight the need to upgrade human capacity and human capital to suit the AI age, as well as strengthen infrastructure to make it resilient amid natural disasters.

“In order to maintain resilience and even aim higher to go back to earlier trajectory of growth, we think that the public policies should really focus on strengthening resilience, particularly in light of the two main risks facing the Philippines in the longer term,” he added.

AMRO added that in the near term, authorities have room to ease monetary policy and deploy fiscal support to help the economy.

“I think in terms of policies, of course, in the short term if there are shocks that hit the economy, monetary policy and fiscal policy would be the first policy instruments that the government can use,” he said.

The BSP has reduced its benchmark rate by a total of 200 basis points since August 2024, bringing the policy rate to a more than three-year low of 4.5%.

REGIONAL GROWTH TO MODERATE

Meanwhile, the ASEAN+3 region is projected to grow by 4% this year, moderating from the regional growth forecast of 4.3% in 2025 amid softer external demand.

ASEAN+3 includes the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states plus China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

ASEAN is forecast to expand by 4.6% this year, slightly slower than 4.8% estimate in 2025.

“While domestic demand is projected to remain firm and continue supporting growth, higher US tariffs and persistent policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on external demand, leading to more moderate growth in 2026,” AMRO said.

The US began imposing a 19% reciprocal tariff on many goods from the Philippines, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia in August 2025.

The think tank noted that overall risks to the regional outlook have become “more balanced,” though downside risks persist and uncertainty continues to rise.

AMRO also flagged five downside risks that could weigh on the region’s baseline forecast for 2025 to 2026, including heightened protectionist measures and a potential slowdown in technology demand.

It also warned that further escalation of US trade measures may dampen regional activity, amid concerns that tariffs will be imposed on sectors currently exempted, such as semiconductors.

Other factors that could undermine regional growth in the near term include potential slowdowns in major economies, surging global commodity prices, and increased financial market volatility.

AMRO said long-term risks include geoeconomic confrontation and policy uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, natural disasters, and extreme weather events.

It added that cyber insecurity, frontier technology risks, weak preparedness for infectious disease outbreaks, and inadequate planning for an aging population could further weigh on the region in the long run.

Despite these risks, the AMRO noted potential upside, such as strong global semiconductor demand and sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments.

“Strong technology demand and robust FDI inflows into emerging sectors, including advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services, have helped cushion growth despite ongoing tariff headwinds,” Mr. He said.

Source: Business World

IMF sees slower Philippine growth amid graft scandal, global shocks

The Philippine economy may expand slower until next year as global uncertainties and the local corruption controversy continue to drag growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Monday, the IMF said it expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.6% this year, within the government’s 5%-6% goal.

This is the same projection given following its Article IV Consultation with the country last December, but slightly lower than its 5.7% estimate in the previous WEO.

At the same time, the IMF cut its Philippine GDP growth forecast for 2027 to 5.8% from its 6% projection in October. This also falls within the government’s 5.5%-6.5% target.

“The downward revision in GDP growth projections for 2026 and 2027 reflects the carryover impact from a downward revision in the IMF’s growth forecast for 2025 — from 5.4% to 5.1% — and a slower pace of capital accumulation,” an IMF spokesperson said.

For 2025, the multilateral lender expected Philippine GDP to grow by 5.1%, unchanged from December forecast. However, this is below its 5.4% forecast given in October.

This came after the flood control corruption mess led to slower economic growth and government spending. In the third quarter, GDP grew by 4% — the weakest growth in over four years. This brought year-to-date GDP growth to 5%.

The IMF said that climate shocks in the latter half of the year also contributed to the economic slowdown.

“The downward revision for 2025 in turn reflects a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3 amid recent corruption allegations and climate shocks impacting economic activity in the second half of the year,” it said.

In 2025, the Philippines encountered 23 tropical cyclones, affecting millions of Filipinos and leaving billions of pesos in damages nationwide, according to data from the state weather bureau.

The IMF earlier said that weather disruptions have trimmed the country’s GDP by 0.2%-0.3% yearly and accelerated inflation by up to 0.6 percentage point annually.

The multilateral lender said that lingering uncertainty over tighter trade restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections could dampen the country’s economic growth.

“On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms can boost investment and FDI (foreign direct investment), increase fiscal multipliers and boost potential growth,” it added.

Meanwhile, the IMF forecasts 6% GDP growth for the Philippines in 2028, at the low end of the government’s 6%-7% target.

“Economic growth will be driven by robust consumption and higher investment, supported by monetary policy easing and the authorities’ recent policy initiatives to support private investment,” the IMF said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has been on an easing path since August 2024, having delivered a total of 200 basis points (bps) in cuts.

In October and December last year, it slashed the key policy rate by 25 bps each in a move to spur domestic demand amid waning consumer and investor sentiment due to the flood control mess.

The benchmark interest rate now stands at an over three-year low of 4.5%, which the central bank said is already close to their ideal rate, signaling an end to its current easing cycle.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has left the door open to another 25-bp cut at their Feb. 19 review but said that further easing may be unlikely considering current economic data.

Still, he noted that a weaker-than-expected growth may prompt them to deliver two rate cuts this year to help stimulate the economy.

Source: Business World

Economy may see faster growth in 2026, 2027

The Philippine economy may expand at a faster pace this year and in 2027, supported by household consumption and softer inflation, the United Nations (UN) said, as the country rebounds from a corruption scandal.

In its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report, the UN projected the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.7% this year and 6.1% in 2027.

“In the Philippines, low inflation, robust labor market conditions, and steady remittance inflows have buoyed consumer spending, while government spending and investment have further supported growth,” the UN said.

The UN’s forecasts are both within the revised government’s 5-6% growth target for this year and within the 5.5-6.5% target for 2027.

It also noted that GDP growth likely averaged 5% in 2025, below the government’s 5.5-6.5% target and the actual 5.7% growth in 2024.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said the Philippines’ economic growth may have slowed to 4.8% to 5% in 2025, due to the controversy on anomalous flood control projects that affected government spending and hurt business and consumer confidence.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release official fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP data on Jan. 29.

Despite this, the Philippines is projected to be the second-fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year and in 2027.

Vietnam is projected to grow by 6% this year, followed by the Philippines (5.7%), Cambodia (5.1%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.0%), Laos (3.8%), Timor-Leste (3.3%), Myanmar (3%), Thailand (2%), Singapore (1.8%), and Brunei (1.5%).

For 2027, Vietnam is still likely to post the fastest growth at 6.2%, followed by the Philippines (6.1%), Cambodia (5.5%), Indonesia (5.2%), Malaysia (4.5%), Laos (4%), Timor-Leste (3.2%), Myanmar (3%), Thailand (2.6%), Singapore (2%), and Brunei (2.1%).

The Philippines’ forecast is above than the UN’s projected average growth of 4.4% for East Asia this year and in 2027.

At the same time, the UN also anticipates inflation settling at 2.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, slower than the BSP’s 3.2% forecast for 2026, and 3% in 2027.

Headline inflation picked up to 1.8% in December, which brought the full-year average to 1.7% in 2025.

Source: Business World