SME support to lift PH growth prospects

Providing support to high-potential small and medium enterprises (SMEs) could boost economic activity and make the Philippines more resilient, the World Bank said.

"The Philippines can further boost its growth prospects by implementing vital reforms that empower SMEs to flourish," the Washington-based multilateral organization said in its Philippine Economic Update report.

As SMEs account for 63 percent of the country's total employment and contribute 36 percent to gross value added, supporting these small businesses can unlock the potential for increased economic dynamism.

The World Bank has trimmed its forecast for Philippine economic growth to 5.3 percent for this year from 6.1 percent previously. Marginal gains of 5.4 percent and 5.5 percent are expected for 2026 and 2027, but all projections fall below the government's 6.0- to 8.0-percent target.

Many SMEs still have low productivity and face difficulties in growing due to limited access to financing, the World Bank said. As a result, they export less and are less involved in global value chains compared to other SMEs in East Asia and the Pacific.

"Regional and global value chains are more than just sales outlets; they are platforms for creating quality jobs and more value-added through benefits from scale, increased competition, and learning," World Bank senior economist Jaime Frias said.

"Firms that engage with international markets are generally more productive, in part because it takes high productivity to export, but also because exporting makes them more productive," Frias added.

The World Bank said SMEs faced several challenges in growing their exports and joining regional and global supply chains. These include limited access to testing and certification services, lack of financing for equipment and quality upgrades and not enough market information to connect with buyers.

It stressed that improving access to testing and certification services would require investments to make this more affordable.

The World Bank also called for simpler rules for laboratories and importing testing equipment and efforts to gain international recognition for Philippine certifications and standards.

Investing in credit information and collateral registries, it added, can help lenders better assess SME risks. This can lower borrowing costs and allow SMEs to invest in better equipment and improve product quality.

"The government can enhance firms' competitiveness by promoting information sharing, which benefits both SMEs and larger companies," the World Bank said.

"This involves closing information gaps by providing easy access to export market data and establishing systems to connect SMEs with larger firms and multinational corporations."

Source: Manila Times

S&P hikes PHL growth forecasts until 2027

S&P Global Ratings expects the Philippines to be the second fastest-growing economy until 2027, as it raised its growth projections.

In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific, S&P Global Ratings said Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) will likely expand by 5.9% this year from 5.7% previously.

For 2026, it expects Philippine GDP to grow by 6% from 5.9% previously.

S&P Global Ratings now projects Philippine GDP growth at 6.6% in 2027 from 6.4% previously.

Based on S&P’s latest projections, the Philippines and Vietnam will post the second-fastest expansion in Asia-Pacific this year until 2027.

India is expected to lead the region, as its GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% this year, 6.7% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.

For 2028, S&P Global Ratings said Philippine GDP will likely expand by 6.5%, the third-fastest in the region after India (6.8%) and Vietnam (6.6%).

“(The) upward revision from our forecasts published in May was driven by the sharp reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China, which came after the pause in the country-specific ‘reciprocal’ tariffs by the US. These somewhat reduced the downsides around global trade and growth,” S&P Global Ratings Senior Lead Economist Vincent Conti said.

US President Donald J. Trump announced higher reciprocal tariffs on most of the country’s trading partners, with Philippine goods facing the second-lowest rate in Southeast Asia at 17%.

However, the reciprocal tariffs have been paused for 90 days until July. A baseline 10% tariff remains in place.

“We nevertheless expect global trade uncertainty to be substantially higher than before January, and that would in turn provide a key headwind for investment in the Philippines,” Mr. Conti added.

S&P Global Market Intelligence Principal Economist Harumi Taguchi said the direct impact of the US tariffs on the Philippine economy is still “relatively smaller” compared with other Asia-Pacific economies.

“The magnitude of impact, including the indirect impact, depends on these scenarios. In any case, this tariff will slow global economic growth and disrupt the supply chain,” she said on Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings sees the Philippines’ benchmark rate ending at 5% this year, which implies another 25-basis-point (bp) cut by the central bank this year.

“With inflation not a major risk, more focus on growth risks and external factors unlikely to significantly constrain monetary policy easing, we expect Asia-Pacific central banks to continue to cut policy rates,” it said in a report.

Last week, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 bps to 5.25% from 5.5% amid a moderating inflation outlook and weaker growth.

The Monetary Board’s remaining policy meetings this year are scheduled for Aug. 28, Oct. 9, and Dec. 11.

S&P Global also expects Philippine inflation to average 2.3% this year, within the 2-4% target. It also projects inflation to settle at 3.2% in 2026, 3.3% in 2027 and 3% in 2028.

The BSP forecasts inflation to average 1.6% this year, 3.4% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027.

Source: Business World

UNDP: AI can steer human development and inclusive growth

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Philippines, in partnership with the Philippine Human Development Network (HDN), successfully held the Philippine launch of the 2025 Global Human Development Report (HDR) at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Headquarters in Makati City.

With this year’s report titled “A Matter of Choice: People and Possibilities in the Age of AI,” the launch brought together government officials, industry leaders, private sector representatives, academics, and civil society representatives to discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) can be a tool for inclusive and sustainable human development.

The 2025 HDR, first unveiled globally in May in Brussels, emphasizes the growing role of AI in reshaping economies and societies. It calls for deliberate choices to ensure that AI technologies empower people, narrow inequalities, and support development goals, particularly in developing countries like the Philippines.

During the launch, Dr. Selva Ramachandran, UNDP Philippines resident representative, noted: “At its core, the HDR is a call to action for governments, businesses, communities, and individuals to make deliberate choices about how AI is designed, used, and governed. If we make the right choices today, AI could become a force and an engine for freedom, opportunity, and progress, not just for a few, but for everyone.”

Dr. Philip Arnold Tuaño of the HDN, Commissioner Javey Francisco of the SEC, and Hon. Reynaldo Cancio from the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) also delivered opening remarks, underscoring the importance of inclusive innovation and robust policy frameworks.

“This year’s launch of the HDR comes at a pivotal moment. While the promise of AI grows even more visible, we are reminded that the path of progress is not inevitable. It is a matter of human choice and governance. This report highlights how AI can be harnessed to enhance human capabilities, rather than diminish,” noted Dr. Tuaño in his opening message.

Through digital transformation, the SEC is building a culture of transparency, measurable accountability, and ongoing performance enhancement. Commissioner Francisco highlighted that the SEC: “sees AI playing a growing role in our work — improving our ability to detect fraud, assess risk, and promote financial inclusion. AI can help us direct capital toward sustainable enterprises, enhance market integrity, and protect investors more effectively than ever before.”

The highlight of the event was a presentation of the HDR 2025 findings by Mohamed Shahudh, UNDP Philippines Economist, followed by a panel discussion titled “Shaping the AI Agenda for Human Empowerment and Inclusive Growth in the Philippines.”

The speakers explored the potential of AI to boost productivity, improve public services, and create new economic opportunities — while also addressing the risks of exclusion, job displacement, and uneven access to digital resources. Panelists stressed the need for forward-looking investments in education, research and development, and AI governance.

A recent IMF study cited during the event revealed that while one-third of Filipino workers are highly exposed to AI, 61% of those jobs could benefit from AI-enhanced productivity, particularly among young, urban, and college-educated workers.

The open forum that followed enabled participants to engage directly with the panelists on issues ranging from AI adoption in education and health to its implications for gender equity and development.

The 2025 HDR highlights that the Philippines, while making gains in its Human Development Index (HDI) — which rose to 0.720 in 2023 — continues to face challenges from inequality and climate vulnerability. The report argues for a pivot toward AI-augmented human development, where AI serves as a complement to human capabilities rather than a replacement.

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Source: Business World