Uncertainties seen tempering PH growth

Philippine economic growth will likely slow this year due to external headwinds, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) reiterated on Tuesday as it kept its forecast for 2025 and lowered that for next year.

In the September edition of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the Manila-based lender maintained the 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection announced in a July supplement. It was a higher 6.0 percent in the April ADO.

If realized, GDP growth will have slowed from last year’s 5.7 percent but hit the government’s downwardly revised 5.5- to 6.5-percent target. The 2024 result, which fell below the 6.0- to 6.5-percent goal for that year, was attributed in part to a series of typhoons.

Unilateral tariff increases initiated by US President Donald Trump and heightened geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, prompted the government to lower its 2025 and 2026-2028 targets in June.

While the ADB forecast for this year falls within the updated range, that for 2026 — a reduced 5.7 percent compared to the 5.8 percent in June and 6.1 percent in April — is lower than the new 6.0- to 7.0-percent target.

“External headwinds and heightened uncertainty over global economic policies have weighed down trade and investment prospects,” ADB Country Director Andrew Jeffries told a briefing.

A 19-percent tariff rate levied by the US on Philippine exports, which took effect in August, is expected to have an impact on outbound shipments. However, solid domestic demand — seen remaining the main engine of growth — should provide an offsetting effect.

The rate — down from the 20 percent threatened in July but higher than the 17 percent announced in April — is seen as offering little in terms of a strategic trade advantage over neighboring Southeast Asian economies.

Still, the ADB said that Philippine growth would remain strong and Jeffries said “sustained government investments, including for social services, is seen boosting domestic demand.”

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” he added.

“Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion.”

Asked whether an ongoing corruption scandal would have an impact, Jeffries said: “We didn’t see a reason at this point in time to reduce those GDP projections due to that issue.”

“But it’s certainly a heightened risk,” he added.

“Between now and our December update, there may be more quantifiable data available that may alter our projections.”

Jeffries said that while the ADB takes “corruption and public financial management very seriously,” it is also mandated to “support our developing member country governments and to help solve complicated projects, not to shy away from helping solve such projects.”

“We have very strong due diligence on the financial management capabilities of our borrowers and any gaps found are built into the project to mitigate financial management risks.”

He added that the ADB requires audited, project-level financial statements from approved auditors for ongoing expenses. Loan disbursements are also strictly monitored to ensure that funds are released only when contracted construction milestones are met.

“So we take this very seriously and... we actually see potentially more support being asked of us to help address this problem going forward,” Jeffries said.

Source: Manila Times

Global growth and changing share in GDP

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released three important pieces of data: GDP performance in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, which was 5.5%; the inflation rate in July, which was 0.9%; and the unemployment rate in June, which was 3.7%.

The GDP growth of 5.5% was the third fastest among the top 50 largest economies in GDP size that have reported their Q2 data so far. This is next to Vietnam and Taiwan that both grew by 8%. India has yet to release its Q2 data and it will likely be higher than the Philippines’.

The inflation rate of 0.9% was a six-year low for the country, and similar to Singapore’s 0.8%. It was lower than Malaysia’s 1.1%, Taiwan’s 1.5%, South Korea and India’s 2.1%, Indonesia’s 2.4%, Vietnam’s 3.2%, and Japan’s 3.3%.

Our unemployment rate of 3.7% was similar to Hong Kong’s 3.5% and lower than Indonesia’s 4.8% (March, no June data is available yet), or China’s 5% and India’s 5.6%.

The government’s economic team deserves praise as they are able to sustain the growth momentum while keeping unemployment and inflation rates at low levels.

[quote from the press statements of three Cabinet Secretaries.]

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto stated that: “The back-to-back good news — low inflation rate, vibrant labor market, and strong GDP growth — are very encouraging…. tuloy-tuloy po kami sa aming trabaho hangga’t ang ginhawa ay hindi lang nakikita sa datos, kundi nasa hapag, nasa bulsa, at nasa kinabukasan ng bawat pamilyang Pilipino. (We will continue with our work until the ease and relief is not only seen in the data, but also on the table, in the pocket, and in the future of every Filipino family).”

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman optimistically projected that: “We anticipate growth to accelerate in the second half of the year and settle within the 5.5% to 6.5% target range by the end of the year, driven by strong domestic demand and sustained public investment.”

Economics Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan summarized: “Our continued economic expansion reflects not only the success of our policies, but also the resilience, creativity, and determination of the Filipino people.”

I have compared the average Q1-Q2 growth of 2025 over the last two years, for major economies that have Q2 data already. The Philippines has the third fastest growth so far, while South Korea, Germany, and Austria are the laggards (see Table 1).

I was personally expecting growth of 6% in Q2, and other economists projected growth of 5.7-6%. What prevented the country from growing faster than 5.5%? To figure this out, I checked the PSA time series quarterly data from 2000 to 2025. I chose a five-year interval for both GDP demand side and GDP supply side.

On the demand side, household consumption was 77% of total GDP in 2005, and this declined to 71% in 2025. But while household consumption is still the largest component of GDP, its growth is decelerating. Government consumption, on the other hand, is rising, from 11% in 2005 to 17% in 2025, and growth is high at 14% in 2025. Investments or gross capital formation also increased its share, from 17% in 2005 to 24% in 2025, but growth is decelerating.

On the supply side or industrial origin, there has been a decline in Agriculture, fishery and forestry (AFF), from 14% in 2005 to 8% in 2025. Industry also declined, from 31% to 29%, while the services sector keeps expanding, from 55% to 63% over the same period.

Growth in both AFF and Industry is low while growth in services sector is high (see Table 2).

It is redundant to state this over and over again, but we have to keep growing fast, and we must attain an annual growth of 6% or higher for a decade at least. Both the industry and AFF sectors must grow faster than their recent performance, while the services sector only need to retain its high growth level.

More growth means more job creation and lower unemployment, more supply of goods and services, which all lead to lower inflation.

Source: Business World

Philippine economy seen to grow 5.8% in Q3 despite higher US tariffs

Philippine economic growth may pick up in the third quarter despite higher US tariffs and “milder” typhoons, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

“Despite the Trump tariffs, milder typhoon season will help accelerate GDP expansion in Q3 to 5.8%, given a low base in 2024,” it said in its latest The Market Call released on Friday.

If realized, this would be faster than 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.5% print in the second quarter. This forecast is also within the government’s revised 5.5% to 6.5% target this year.

“Consumer spending remains strong, aided by low inflation but limited by new US taxes on OFW (overseas Filipino Worker) remittances,” UA&P said.

Inflation cooled to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July as utilities and food costs continued to ease. This brought the seven-month average to 1.7%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target band.

UA&P said government infrastructure spending may also regain momentum in the third quarter. This was after state spending slumped due to the 45-day election ban on public works spending from March 28 to May 12.

UA&P said residential construction will remain subdued due to elevated policy and interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August last year.  The policy rate now stands at 5.25%.

UA&P said the US dollar rate will “move either way” depending on rate cuts by the BSP and the US Federal Reserve.

“The peso-dollar rate has a fundamental depreciation bias although it will depend much on extent and timing of policy rate cuts by BSP and the Fed,” it said.

Meanwhile, UA&P said the outlook for the local bond market is better in the second semester.

“The local bond market heads towards a brighter second half with the deceleration of inflation, the National Government having raised all but less than 6% of its planned borrowing needs for 2025 and BSP planning 50 bps rate cuts between now and end-2025,” it said.

TARIFF-INDUCED SLOWDOWN

Meanwhile, ANZ Research said the Philippines may face more external pressures in the coming months, arising from US tariffs and a slowdown in the global economy.

In a report, ANZ said the Philippines’ services surplus has been moderating in recent quarters, as business process outsourcing and information technology exports remain resilient.

The services surplus narrowed to $3.3 billion in the first quarter from $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter.

“However, the IT-BPO (information technology-business process outsourcing) sector faces several risks in the near term. A tariff-induced slowdown in the global economy could dampen demand for outsourced services, particularly from the US, which is the largest consumer of Philippine IT-BPO exports,” ANZ said.

“If demand from US slows down, it could materially affect the Philippines’ services revenue.”

The IT-BPO sector is also dealing with the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence, as low-skilled workers are seen to be most vulnerable to displacement.

ANZ said the Philippines’ external accounts will face more challenges as goods exports demand is expected to weaken over the next few months.

“Though the Philippines’ exposure to US demand is relatively low, the wider impact of US tariffs on the global economy will affect its exports,” it said.

The US began imposing a 19% tariff on many goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7.

“Import demand stemming from private consumption is expected to remain subdued due to low wage growth, which is limiting purchasing power,” ANZ said.

ANZ said capital expenditure is likely to accelerate in the second half.

“Higher infrastructure spending typically translates to higher demand for capital imports for the Philippines, which will potentially further widen the trade deficit,” it said.

At the same time, ANZ said the 1% excise tax on remittances from the US is expected to have a “modest effect” on the country’s external accounts.

“This development is particularly relevant for the Philippines, given its heavy reliance on inward remittances from the US (about 40% of total remittances). It is also an important source of household income, consumption, and external account support. Remittances are a key component of the current account, helping offset the country’s persistent trade deficit,” it said.

The US will impose a 1% excise tax on cash-based remittances from the US to recipients abroad starting on Jan. 1, 2026. However, ANZ noted that since the new tax will be applied on cash-based remittances, its scope will be relatively limited.

“The Philippine Department of Finance estimates the total impact of the tax to be around $1.9 billion, which represents a small share of total remittances. As a result, while the effect on the Philippines’ external accounts is expected to be limited in 2026,” it said.

ANZ said a further slowdown in the US labor market will also affect the amount of remittances sent to the Philippines.

Money sent home by OFWs rose by 3.1% to $16.75 billion in the first six months of the year, with land-based workers contributing the bulk of the increase.

Source: Business World