Philippine annual inflation at 1.7% in September

Philippine annual inflation quickened for a second month, but it was still below the central bank’s 2% to 4% comfort range for the year, reinforcing expectations that a policy decision this week will be a close call between cutting rates and pausing.

The consumer price index rose 1.7% in September led by higher food prices, up from August’s 1.5%, the statistics agency said on Tuesday. It was below the 2.0% median forecast in a Reuters poll, and brought year-to-date average inflation to 1.7%.

The September rate, the fastest since March, comes just days before the central bank’s penultimate policy meeting of the year on Thursday.

“For the upcoming policy meeting, the Monetary Board will review newly available information and reassess the impact of prior monetary actions in light of evolving economic conditions and their implications for inflation and growth,” the Philippine central bank said in a statement.

At its August policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) signalled another reduction was still possible this year before it concludes its easing cycle.

Ahead of the data, HSBC economist Aris Dacanay said in a note the October 9 policy decision could be a close call between a pause and another rate cut.

Mr. Dacanay said he expects the BSP to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 5.0%, following three consecutive quarter-point reductions. He added that a 25-basis-point cut remains possible at the BSP’s December meeting.

“While waiting for more data to come, inflation concerns, particularly on food, should also weigh on the decision,” Mr. Dacanay said.

Food inflation in September slightly accelerated to 0.8% from 0.6% in August, driven mainly by higher prices of vegetables, tubers, plantains, and cooking bananas, the statistics agency said.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was at 2.6%, close to the previous month’s 2.7%.

Source: Business World

Philippine inflation quickens to 1.5% in August

Headline inflation picked up to 1.5% in August, driven by higher food, electricity and fuel prices, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Friday.

Last month’s consumer price index (CPI) was faster than the 0.9% in July but slower than the 3.3% logged a year ago.

The August print fell within the central bank’s 1%-1.8% forecast for the month.

August also marked the sixth month in a row that inflation settled below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target range.

For the first eight months, headline inflation averaged 1.7%, on par with the BSP’s 1.7% target for 2025.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of food and fuel, quickened to 2.7% from 2.3% in July and 2.6% last year. It averaged 2.4% in the January-August period.

The heavily weighted food and nonalcoholic beverages were the primary driver of faster inflation during the month, National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said

Source: Business World

Philippine economy now at a ‘sweet spot’

The Philippine economy now sits at a “sweet spot” as inflation remains benign while the country’s banking sector and external position are strong, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

“Amid the swirling controversies over corruption, I am pleased to report a piece of good news. We think the economy is in good shape,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said during a briefing at the Senate on Monday.

“Indeed, our economy is in what I would call a ‘sweet spot,’ and I think this would help our fiscal strategy (to) make it more effective,” he added.

For the first half, gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Inflation averaged 1.7% in the January-July period, below the BSP’s 2-4% annual target.

Mr. Remolona said the central bank tamed inflation with its aggressive rate hikes.

Last week, it cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5%. The central bank has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 150 bps since it began its easing cycle in August 2024.

“This lowering of the policy rate stimulates demand, it helps the economy grow, and because we did it in a very measured approach, it hasn’t led to inflation,” Mr. Remolona said.

He said inflation looks like it will stay within BSP’s 2-4% target range.

The BSP projected inflation to average 1.7% this year, before picking up to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

At the same time, Mr. Remolona also attributed the economy’s current state to the “sound” performance of the local banking system.

“The banks have solid balance sheets, assets are growing, deposits are growing, (and) income of banks is growing,” he said.

Mr. Remolona added that banks have maintained enough capital and liquidity.

“Looking at liquidity standards, international liquidity standards, our banks also hold liquidity that far exceeds the international standard,” he said. “At the same time, the loans are not so risky.”

Mr. Remolona also said digitalization and financial inclusion can help increase consumers’ savings, especially in a country where “savings rate tends to be quite low.”

Meanwhile, the BSP chief said the country has “more than enough” international reserves.

At end-July, the country’s gross international reserves slipped to $105.4 billion from $106 billion in June.

Source: Business World