Prices of Noche Buena items climb in 2025

The general increase of the Noche Buena items, as measured by the basket’s price index, rose by 1.8% annually this year, a turnaround from the 0.2% decline last year.

This brought the average price hike of the basket to 2.3% from 2012 to the present.

Since 2011, the Noche Buena price index has climbed by 27.3%.

BusinessWorld has been monitoring the annual price changes of the Noche Buena items through a price index that gauges how fast (or slow) the price of this representative basket of goods has risen (or fallen) over the years.

The prices of goods are based on the Department of Trade and Industry’s (DTI) list of suggested retail prices, where the earliest available data date back to 2011.

Source: Business World

Philippine inflation slows more than expected in November

Inflation in the Philippines eased more than expected in November due to a decline in food prices, the statistics agency said on Friday, giving the central bank policy room to maneuver.

The consumer price index rose 1.5% in November from a year earlier, below the previous month’s 1.7% rise and a 1.6% median forecast in a Reuters poll.

That brought the year-to-date average to 1.6%, below the central bank’s target of 2% to 4%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also slowed to 2.4% from 2.5% in October.

Last month’s slower inflation, driven by a 0.3% decline in food prices, may give the central bank flexibility when it reviews its policy on December 11.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona said on December 3 that the odds for another interest rate cut next week were higher with growth this year likely to settle between 4% and 5%, below a 5.5% to 6.5% target.

“The outlook for domestic economic growth has weakened,” the central bank said in a statement on Friday following the inflation data’s release.

“This outlook reflects in part the impact on business confidence of governance concerns about public infrastructure spending as well as lingering uncertainty from the external environment.”

The BSP has cut its policy rate at its past four meetings, taking it to a three-year low of 4.75%.

Press Release on November 2025 Seasonally Adjusted CPI_s3m9l.pdf

Download PDF • 380KB

Source: Business World

Lackluster GDP to impede property’s recovery

The third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Philippines was a disappointing 4% — due mainly to tempered household consumption as well as constricted government infrastructure spending. The third quarter (Q3) 2025 GDP growth was the weakest quarterly economic expansion recorded since the third quarter of 2011, a period that also saw slower spending due to corruption allegations involving public projects.

While Q3 is historically a slow quarter, the sharp slowdown was worse than what economists projected. Average GDP growth for 9M 2025 is now at 5%, even lower than the 5.5% to 6.5% estimate of the country’s economic managers. Hence, it is no longer surprising to see credit rating agencies and multilateral aid agencies also downgrading their growth forecast for the Philippines for 2025.

Colliers Philippines is still hoping for a strong finish for the property sector. Fourth quarter is traditionally a strong period for retail spending due to higher remittances and disbursement of holiday bonuses for public and private sector employees.

Greater purchasing power supported by attractive ready for occupancy (RFO) promos should also help lift demand for residential units, especially mid-income (P3.6 million to P12 million a unit) condominiums primarily targeted by developers’ “renter to owner” schemes.

The office market has so far surpassed initial projections for 2025, but stakeholders are on the lookout for anti-outsourcing measures that might impede the Philippine business process outsourcing (BPO) sector’s growth beyond 2025.

SLOWEST QUARTERLY GROWTH SINCE Q3 2011

In Q3 2025, the Philippine economy expanded by 4%, the slowest since the 3.8% contraction in Q3 2011. As of 9M 2025, average GDP reached 5%, lower than the government’s full year target of between 5.5% and 6.5%. The country remains one of the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia in 9M 2025, next to Vietnam’s 7.7%.

Steady GDP expansion is essential for the country to generate decent jobs and ensure growth in individual incomes. Improving workers’ purchasing power is crucial in fueling residential demand.

CENTRAL BANK EASES RATES FURTHER, INFLATION HOLDS STEADY

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) or central bank cut its policy rate for the fourth straight meeting, reducing the benchmark rate by another 25-basis points (bps) to 4.75% in October, the lowest since September 2022.

The central bank noted that inflation outlook remains within the target range of 2% to 4% but highlighted the weaker economic outlook and the decline in business confidence as key reasons for further rate cuts.

Since August 2024, the central bank has cut a total of 175 bps.

Inflation reached 1.7% in October 2025, an easing from 2.3% a year ago. As of 10M 2025, average inflation reached 1.7%, below the government’s 2%-4% target range.

SHIFTING GEARS BEYOND 2025

The office and residential markets are now starting to move sideways in the property cycle. With substantial correction in office rents at the height of the pandemic, Colliers is hopeful that recent tailwinds in the office market will result in gradual recovery in lease rates within and outside Metro Manila.

It appears that property developers have finally accepted what needs to be done to revive the Metro Manila vertical market, especially the mid-income segment which is now the focal point of developers’ RFO promos. The retail segment continues its aggressive recovery post-covid, with strong absorption and limited new retail space resulting in drop in vacancy and rise in rents.

The Q3 results point to a need for massive pump-priming from the government. Continued slowdown in government’s infrastructure program will likely result in a Philippine economy grinding to a halt — so it is crucial that private personal consumption expenditures in Q4 are supported by ramped up public sector spending.

With the current market dynamics, it’s obvious that the Philippine economy and property are still moving, but not sprinting. Until we see sweeping governance reforms and an eventual return of private investor confidence, we’re bound to see property opportunities not exactly shouting, but whispering.

Source: Business World