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Manila fell four places to 125th out of 146 cities in the latest edition of the Smart City Index. This was the Philippine capital’s lowest ranking thus far according to Switzerland-based International Institute for Management Development (IMD).
The Smart City Index measures and rates each city’s level of technological application to the five key areas: health and safety, mobility, activities, opportunity, and governance.
Source: Business World
The Metro Manila office market navigated a challenging landscape in 2024, marked by high vacancy rates, shifting occupier strategies, and global economic uncertainties. As 2025 begins, key trends are emerging that could redefine demand dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for occupiers and landlords alike.
US ELECTION SLOWS DOWN OFFICE LEASING IN Q4 2024
Metro Manila’s office market experienced a decline in transaction activity in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, with total demand dropping to 143,000 square meters (sq.m.) from 192,000 sq.m. in the previous quarter. Colliers’ historical data show that demand typically dips by 30% during US election periods as occupiers delay leasing decisions, but rebounds by 40% in the following months as market confidence stabilizes.
Despite the temporary dip, expansions remained strong, signaling businesses’ confidence in the country. In 2024, expansions accounted for 56% of known transaction motivations, while 44% were relocations — primarily driven by cost-efficiency strategies and flight-to-quality movements. Traditional firms continued to be the primary demand driver, followed by third-party outsourcing (3PO) firms and shared services providers. Government agencies played a key role in traditional office space demand, accounting for 27% of total take-up.
The submarket dynamics in Metro Manila highlight the resilience of key business districts. Among Metro Manila’s submarkets, the Bay Area remained the most active, capturing 23% of total transactions, followed by Fort Bonifacio (18%) and Quezon City (17%). Key leasing transactions in the Bay Area were from government offices, while major sign-ups from multinational firms were seen in Fort Bonifacio, and expansions of IT-BPM firms were recorded in Quezon City.
POGO EXODUS’ IMPACT TO LINGER IN 2025
The lingering effects of the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator (POGO) exodus weighed on the market, pushing Metro Manila into its first negative net take-up territory since 2021. In 2024, POGOs vacated 260,000 sq.m., and without the ban, net take-up could have remained positive at 215,000 sq.m.
The impact is most pronounced in POGO-exposed submarkets, particularly the Bay Area, Alabang, and Makati Fringe, where vacancy rates remain elevated. With the government’s continued crackdown on illegal POGOs, surrenders from these spaces will likely drive further increases in vacancy rates.
Despite these challenges, demand from other sectors has helped cushion the impact, with traditional firms, 3POs, and government agencies absorbing space. While the effects of the POGO exit will linger, ongoing transactions have prevented a worst-case scenario.
PROVINCIAL DEMAND REMAINS STRONG, DIVERSIFYING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
Beyond Metro Manila, provincial office markets saw sustained demand, particularly from outsourcing firms. Cebu and Pampanga remained the top locations for provincial transactions, though Cebu recorded a year-on-year drop in volume — signaling possible market saturation of third-party outsourcing firms.
However, emerging office destinations such as Davao, Bacolod, Batangas, and Bohol saw a surge in demand, averaging a threefold increase in year-on-year transaction volume. Notably, some BPO players adapted to supply gaps by securing non-traditional spaces, such as Sagility’s lease within the redeveloped Tagbilaran Airport project. Additionally, newly built office buildings accounted for 60% of leasing activity, highlighting the need for high-quality, BPO-grade office spaces.
To capitalize on this trend, developers are encouraged to explore expansion in cities with limited office supply. Major developers such as Robinsons Land and Megaworld are already pivoting toward provincial growth with key projects in Iloilo, Bacolod, Bulacan, Davao, and Dumaguete. As more firms consider decentralizing operations, having high-quality office spaces will be critical in ensuring sustainable provincial market growth and attracting long-term occupiers.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2025
The office market is expected to remain tenant-leaning in 2025, as high vacancy rates persist due to non-renewals and carryovers from delayed construction of office buildings. However, early indicators from our Q1 2025 data suggest renewed leasing activity — particularly from 3PO firms in both Metro Manila and provincial locations — signaling a rebound in office demand.
Global economic conditions could further bolster the Philippines’ office market. With rising costs in key international markets, outsourcing remains a cost-effective strategy for multinational companies. The recent US tariff policies, as highlighted in our previous write-up, are expected to place additional cost pressures on US firms, making offshore solutions in the Philippines even more attractive. This trend could drive increased demand for office space, particularly from 3POs and shared services firms looking to expand their footprint in cost-efficient locations.
The passage of the CREATE MORE Act — particularly its provision allowing Registered Business Enterprises (RBEs) to implement up to 50% work-from-home (WFH) arrangements—will also play a crucial role in shaping office demand. In the short term, this policy may have varied effects: some firms may rationalize their office footprint, while others may see little to no change in their space needs as they are already compliant with the onsite requirement. However, in the long term, the clarity on hybrid work policies provides occupiers with a stable regulatory framework — reducing uncertainty and allowing companies to make more confident real estate decisions.
For tenants, current market conditions present an opportunity to secure favorable deals, while landlords must enhance their offerings to remain competitive. Landlords in the Bay Area, Alabang, and Makati Fringe — particularly those with aging buildings and spaces previously occupied by POGOs — will need to implement refurbishments, offer tenant improvement allowances, and introduce flexible lease structures to attract occupiers and mitigate vacancy risks.
Source: Business World
New condominium launches in Metro Manila slumped to a five-year low in the first quarter, as property developers focus on clearing their existing inventory, according to property consultancy firm Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC).
LPC’s latest Philippine Property Market Report showed new condominium launches in Metro Manila plunged by 77% to 1,347 units in the January-to-March period from 5,928 units in the fourth quarter of 2024.
This was also the lowest number of units launched since the 9,392 units in the first quarter of 2020 when the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began.
In a statement, LPC said developers are “focusing on marketing existing inventory, particularly within the midrange segment, before rolling out new projects.”
Leechiu Director for Research and Consultancy Roy Amado L. Golez, Jr. said the drop in new residential condominium projects reflects developers’ lack of confidence in the market.
“The significant number of supply in the market dictates that developers will slow down their launches. But then at the end of the year, we’ll likely see the same blip upwards in terms of total supply,” he said at a media briefing.
LPC data showed a 14% quarter-on-quarter improvement in sales take-up with 6,500 units sold in the first quarter, amid rate cuts by the central bank. However, this was a far cry from the 13,246 units sold in the first quarter of 2020.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, bringing the key rate to 5.75%. The BSP has signaled it will continue easing this year.
“We’ve seen a good start for the year for the residential market. But we need to move with caution for now due to very recent developments in the world capital markets. For developers, they will need to be more aggressive with their marketing: their promos and payment terms,” Mr. Golez said.
Mr. Golez said buyers should take advantage of “a short window of opportunity to acquire property at favorable terms while supply is not yet at comfortable levels.”
Metro Manila still has an oversupply of condominiums, mainly in the mid-market to upscale segments and in areas outside central business districts that were affected by the government’s ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO).
As of end-March, LPC data showed Metro Manila had about 81,400 available condo units, which may take 38 months or about three years to be fully sold.
“Most developers, or practically all, are reluctant to decrease prices. But in effect, what they’re trying to do is offer decreased prices by offering discounts as well as extended payment terms,” Mr. Golez said.
Mr. Golez said he expects developers to limit their project launches for the next six months.
“In the next six months, I think these (launches) will remain low, but as take-up improves, I think they will recover, because now, there are only limited launches,” he told BusinessWorld after the briefing.
Meanwhile, the office market saw a 7% year-on-year increase in demand of 355,000 square meters (sq.m.) despite the absence of POGOs and limited government take-up, LPC said.
“The main difference between this quarter and the first quarter of 2024 is the 56% increase in BPO (business process outsourcing) demand coming from specifically one segment, which are the global in-house centers,” Mikko Baranda, LPC director for commercial leasing, told the briefing.
Global in-house centers are involved in healthcare, banking, financial services, and insurance sectors.
“A lot of these companies, and probably also predicated with what’s happening all over the world, are looking at the Philippines again to offshore and outsource work,” Mr. Baranda said, citing foreign companies like JPMorgan keen on growing their footprint in the country.
In the first quarter, lease transactions involving IT-BPOs reached 185,000 sq.m. of office space, while those for traditional offices reached 94,000 sq.m.
The nationwide office vacancy rate stood at 17% in the first quarter. In Metro Manila, the office vacancy rate stood at 16% — with the highest in Taguig at 24% and the lowest in Bonifacio Global City (10%).
For 2025, office net take-up is expected to jump by an annual 16% to 490,000 sq.m.
“The office market in the Philippines continues to show grit in the face of global and local challenges. The IT-BPM sector remains to be a reliable key driver of growth, while traditional office tenants are also increasingly active. With a promising outlook for the rest of the year, we expect resiliency amidst potential headwinds,” Mr. Baranda said.
LPC said a total of 2 million sq.m. is forecast to be added to the Philippine office supply in the next four years.
Meanwhile, the country’s retail market has already recovered from the pandemic.
“The general population has largely come back to the malls, and back to their consumption behavior. Developers are largely confident of the market with 105 malls upcoming nationwide [in the next six years],” Mr. Golez said.
By developer, SM Prime Holdings, Inc. accounted for 29% of upcoming malls, followed by Robinsons Land Corp. at 28%, and DoubleDragon Corp. at 15%. Other developers expected to launch new malls in the six-year period include Ayala Land, Inc. (10%), Megaworld Corp. (7%), and Rockwell Land Corp. (2%).
Source: Manila Times