Infrastructure spending boost seen key to faster PH growth in 2026

A recovery of government infrastructure spending after a deep slump triggered by the flood control scandal would be the most effective way to accelerate growth, ANZ Research said, arguing that the boost from interest rate cuts is still debatable in an environment of weakening confidence.

In a note to clients, Sanjay Mathur, ANZ’s chief economist for Southeast Asia, said that while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may opt for one last final rate cut to support the economy, there are repercussions from the graft fallout that may not be effectively addressed through monetary policy easing.

“There has been a downshift in the growth in the Philippines as repercussions from governance-related issues in public infrastructure projects have not receded,” Mathur wrote. “The resulting weakness in public spending, particularly on the capital side, has permeated into the household and business sectors.”

“The efficacy of the monetary policy easing cycle against the backdrop of low household and business confidence is debatable,” he added. “In our view, a revival in government spending is the most appropriate pathway to faster growth.”

Lowered growth target

Earlier this month, economic officials in the Marcos administration trimmed their 2026 growth target to 5 to 6 percent, from the previous goal of 6 to 7 percent, underscoring the economic costs of the sweeping investigation into anomalous flood control projects.

ANZ’s Mathur estimated that growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 may have settled at a “sub-potential” rate of 4.5 percent, which, he said, is likely to validate the need for an additional cut in the policy rate.

To help “compensate” for the effects of the graft fallout, the BSP cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent last December, bringing total reductions since the easing cycle began in August 2024 to two percentage points.

Source: Inquirer

Philippines accelerates push to light up rural homes

Over a million households in the Philippines remain without electricity, a gap the government aims to close within the next three years.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said the Department of Energy (DoE) and National Electrification Administration (NEA) are deploying a mix of strategies to speed up household energization, including microgrid systems, solarized homes, and streamlined grid connections.

“Just a little more and we’ll be close to 100%,” she said in a speech last year. “For every one peso the government spends on electrification, we get four pesos in return. So, it’s an investment for us and for our children.”

During his fourth State of the Nation Address in July 2025, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. directed the DoE and NEA to accelerate efforts to fully electrify the country before the end of his term in 2028.

As of June 2025, about 28.27 million households have been energized, accounting for 94.77% of the projected households from the 2020 Philippine Statistics Authority census.

Luzon posted the highest electrification rate at 98.53%, followed by the Visayas at 95.78%, while Mindanao continues to trail at 83.81%, highlighting the difficulty of reaching last-mile communities.

Under the 2024-2028 National Electrification Roadmap, the government was targeting a 96.51% electrification rate by the end of 2025.

The DoE’s Electric Power Industry Management Bureau (EPIMB) said achieving full electrification by 2028 will require an estimated P80.9 billion, with around P68.26 billion expected from government financing and P12.64 billion from private investments.

The funds will cover household connections to existing grids, distribution line extensions, stand-alone home systems, and microgrid projects.

NEA Administrator Antonio Mariano C. Almeda said the agency expected rural electrification to reach 91.7% by the end of 2025, aiming for 94% by the end of 2026 with higher subsidies from Congress.

“With the increase in the budget, it requires an increase in engineers to validate, inspect, liquidate, and issue certificates of final inspection,” he said during a briefing in December, noting that the issue is being discussed with the Commission on Audit.

EPIMB said insufficient funding and subsidies make grid extension and off-grid projects difficult, particularly in areas where electrification is not commercially viable.

“Because rural electrification is often not profitable, private companies are hesitant to invest. The regulatory and institutional frameworks—tariffs, subsidies, and incentives—may not sufficiently offset risk,” the bureau said.

Much of the work of electrifying last-mile communities has fallen to electric cooperatives and private utilities operating on the ground.

The Philippine Rural Electric Cooperatives Association, Inc. (PHILRECA), which represents cooperatives nationwide, said it is aligning its programs to support the government’s 2028 electrification goal.

“We are aligning all available mechanisms, projects, and assistance to ECs (electric cooperatives) in ensuring the attainment of total electrification by 2028,” PHILRECA Executive Director and General Manager Janeene Depay-Colingan said in a statement.

She noted that ECs face obstacles, including difficult terrain, limited infrastructure, high project costs, and logistical constraints, which require innovative and coordinated approaches.

PHILRECA said it is strengthening partnerships with government agencies, optimizing funding mechanisms, deploying modular and renewable energy solutions in off-grid areas, and enhancing the technical capacities of cooperatives.

MICROGRIDS, RENEWABLES

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), which serves about 3% of the country’s land area, has also expressed support for the national agenda.

“The government’s target of achieving full electrification nationwide by 2028 is ambitious and critical for inclusive development — and Meralco is fully committed to supporting this agenda,” Meralco Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer Ronnie L. Aperocho said.

Meralco is expanding its role in off-grid electrification through microgrid projects. The company targets to energize more than 1,000 homes and businesses on Cagbalete Island in Mauban, Quezon, with a solar-plus-battery microgrid system and backup diesel generation.

“With the launch of the Cagbalete Microgrid, we reaffirm Meralco’s commitment to power progress with sustainable energy solutions, ensuring that no one is left in the dark,” Mr. Aperocho said.

Renewable energy and microgrids are seen as cost-effective solutions for off-grid areas. Many households in remote communities rely on diesel generators or kerosene lamps, which often incur higher and more volatile costs.

“It offers a way to step back from traditional grid extension, reduce reliance on diesel and imported fuels, improve resilience — especially given the country’s exposure to natural disasters — and support inclusive development,” EPIMB said.

Albert R. Dalusung III, energy transition adviser at the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, said that renewable energy can help lower electricity costs for local communities.

He cautioned that efforts should focus not only on expanding coverage but also on delivering reliable power that enables economic activity.

“I think what is important is not just to target full electrification because it may be ‘full electrification,’ but you’re only delivering eight hours or less of electricity,” he said.

Source: Business World

Philippines targets 4.3% of GDP for infrastructure spending in 2026

The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) cut its infrastructure spending target to 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 5.1% previously, as a corruption scandal weighed on government spending and economic growth last year.

The lower target translates to about P1.3 trillion in infrastructure outlays, Acting Budget Secretary Rolando U. Toledo said on Tuesday, signaling a more cautious spending stance as the government works to restore confidence and streamline disbursements.

“Based on our approved General Appropriations Act, we’re looking at achieving our infrastructure target as [a percentage of our] GDP at 4.3%, and even at a nominal level, that is equivalent to P1.3 trillion,” he told a Palace briefing in mixed English and Filipino.

Infrastructure spending has been a key pillar of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s growth strategy, though execution slowed last year due to budget adjustments and project bottlenecks amid a massive graft scandal involving flood control projects.

The government had earlier set a target of 5.1% of GDP for infrastructure spending in 2026, equivalent to P1.56 trillion, lower than the 2025 target of 5.3% of GDP or P1.51 trillion.

In 2024, infrastructure spending accounted for 5.8% of GDP or P1.545 trillion.

Mr. Toledo said the government is still determined to boost investments in infrastructure in the medium term.

He said there is little risk of delays in infrastructure projects this year, after a “clean” budget process.

“There is no reason for us to delay,” Mr. Toledo said, adding that the 2026 national budget contains no “ghost projects” and that allocations across programs are fully specified, supporting the government’s ability to meet its infrastructure goals.

Mr. Marcos on Jan. 5 signed a record P6.793-trillion national budget amid a graft scandal, which has prompted tighter scrutiny of public spending and a more cautious approach to the release of funds for infrastructure and other major projects.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said slower public works spending may temper economic momentum because infrastructure has one of the highest multiplier effects in the economy.

“It may cap growth momentum, as public works have one of the highest multiplier effects in the economy,” he said via Viber.

“The more cautious stance may help restore governance credibility, but it also means less crowding-in of private investment, weaker job creation in construction and allied sectors, and slower productivity gains,” he added.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan last week said economic growth in the Philippines likely eased to between 4.8% and 5% in 2025, reflecting the impact of the graft scandal on the economy.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to publish official fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP figures on Jan. 29.

Without faster execution, improved project selection, or stronger private investment to offset the slowdown, the Philippines’ economic growth could fall short of its potential even as confidence gradually improves, Mr. Rivera said.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said higher government spending — particularly on infrastructure — is likely to be the primary driver of economic growth in 2026.

He expects authorities to accelerate public works as early as the first quarter to make up for underspending last year, which he said was partly due to tighter anti-corruption measures and governance reforms.

A catch-up spending program could help bolster investor confidence and sentiment, Mr. Ricafort said, reinforcing the growth outlook.

He said prospective interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas would lower borrowing costs, supporting credit demand, investment and overall economic expansion.

Source: Business World