Colliers says housing prices may have recovered in Q4

Residential property prices may have picked up in the fourth quarter after the slump a quarter earlier, Colliers Philippines said.

“Similar to what we have seen previously, the fourth quarter is traditionally a strong quarter for residential take-up whether within or outside Metro Manila, whether it’s condominiums or horizontal,” Joey Roi H. Bondoc, director and head of research at Colliers Philippines, said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Residential Property Price Index indicated that housing prices nationwide posted its weakest growth ever in the third quarter at 1.9%.

This was a sharp slowdown from the 7.5% growth posted in the three months to June and the year-earlier 7.6%.

The BSP also reported that lower real estate investment brought banks and trust entities’ real estate exposure down to 19.54% at the end of September from 19.61% at the end of June and 19.55% a year earlier.

Real estate loans climbed 8.9% year on year to P3.096 trillion at the end of September, but real estate investment slipped 5.75% to P354.749 billion.

Mr. Bondoc said yearend bonuses and inflows of remittances from overseas Filipino workers could have spurred demand for residential property in the fourth quarter.

He also noted that the peso’s recent weakness may prompt migrants, especially those from North America, to send more money home.

The peso has been trading between P58 to P59 to the dollar since October, hitting a fresh record low of P59.22 on Dec. 9.

However, Mr. Bondoc said elevated mortgage rates may still continue to dampen housing price growth in the near term, but any potential rate reduction could help property take up and price growth by this quarter next year.

“I think we need to watch out for the… possible reduction in mortgage rates, given that there has been a substantial decline in basic policy rates by the central bank,” he added.

“And if that happens, that will provide a better impetus for a spike in residential demand, and therefore residential prices, starting (in the) first quarter of 2026.”

The BSP ended the year with a fifth straight 25 basis-point (bp) cut on Dec. 11, bringing its total reductions on key borrowing costs to 200 bps since August 2024. The benchmark policy rate is currently at an over three-year low of 4.5%. 

Mr. Bondoc said lowering the mortgage rate between 6% and 6.5% from the current 7.8% could help the property industry by raising confidence among buyers.

“But the concern is that they have not been lowering their mortgage rates,” he added. “If they start doing that next year, 2026, I think (that will be) a very good sign that demand and then prices might recover faster because of this lower mortgage rate.”

Source: Business World

UK House prices beat forecasts before budget

House prices rose more than expected last month in a further sign of resilient demand despite the possibility of property-related tax reforms in the budget. Average prices rose 0.3 per cent in October after rising by 0.5 per cent in September, mortgage lender Nationwide’s latest house price index showed.

Year-on-year prices were 2.4 per cent higher, up from a 2.2 per cent annual increase in September.

Economists had forecast no change over the month and a 2.3 per cent increase over the year.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief Martin Strydom economist, said: “Against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labor market, this performance indicates resilience, especially since mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all-time highs.

”The figures come after Bank of England data on Wednesday showed that the number of mortgages approved by lenders in September came in higher than expected. Mortgage approvals totalled65,944 during the month, the highest figure since December and above economists’ forecasts of 64,000.

The data are at odds with other measures of the housing market which have suggested a slowing in price growth in recent months, attributed to caution among homebuyers before the budget on November 26.

A report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors published in October quoted Timothy Shaw, of Vincent Shaw estate agents in Cambridge as saying that the housing market was in a “state of semi-paralysis”, with agencies reporting another fall in inquiries, sales, new instructions and prices in September.

It said the autumn slowdown, brought on by speculation about potential reforms to property taxes, has “become more firmly entrenched of late” .Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has said that “higher taxes on the wealthy …will be part of the story” in the budget, with some form of property tax seen as a possibility.

Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, said that data suggested that “homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the budget on November 26, potentially on property, as it first appeared”.

Elliott Jordan-Doak, a senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that while house prices had remained subdued, they were likely to continue rising slowly over the coming months.“ Some homebuyers are taking await-and-see approach to the budget, which is weighing slightly on sentiment in the market.

“But the activity indicators holding up better than their survey-based signals suggests to us that demand remains robust,” he said. Nationwide said housing affordability was likely to improve modestly if income growth continues to outpace house price growth. It also expects borrowing costs to ease, bolstering buyer demand.

Goldman Sachs said this week that after a sharp deterioration in economic data, it expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates by a quarter point to3.75 per cent next week.

Source: The Times

Philippine housing prices rise in Q2

Philippine housing prices increased in the second quarter as consumers were less pessimistic about purchasing residential properties, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

The BSP’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) showed housing prices nationwide went up by 7.5% in the April-June period.

However, this was slower than the 7.6% annual growth seen in the first quarter and the 7.9% a year ago. Quarter on quarter, the RPPI rose by 4.2%, outpacing the 2.6% growth in home prices logged in the first quarter.

The RPPI measures the average price changes over time of various residential properties using banks’ data on actual housing loans. The central bank said the data gives insight on the real estate and credit market conditions in the Philippines.

However, home prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) went up by 2.4% in the second quarter, slowing from the 13.9% in the previous quarter and 9.3% last year.

Quarter on quarter, NCR housing prices contracted by 3.6%.

Outside of NCR (AONCR), home prices rose by 11.5% during the April to June period, faster than the 3% in the first quarter and 7.2% a year ago.

Balance Greater Manila Area (GMA) had the highest annual growth in housing prices at 13.2%, followed by Metro Cebu (11.5%), other areas in the Philippines (8.8%), and Metro Mindanao (7.7%).

CONDO PRICES SLUMP

By housing type, condominium unit prices dipped by 0.2% in the second quarter, a reversal from the 11.5% increase in the comparable year-ago period and the 10.6% growth last quarter.

The cost of houses, which include single-attached or detached units, apartments, townhouses and duplexes, rose by 13.1% year on year. This was faster than the 5.4% in 2024 and 4.5% in the first quarter.

Data from the central bank showed the median price for all housing types in the Philippines stood at P3.4 million in the second quarter. Condominium units had a median price of P3.8 million, while houses cost around P3.1 million.

Houses in the NCR were the most expensive at a median price of P7.01 million, while houses in other areas in the Philippines were the cheapest at about P2.7 million.

In the second quarter, residential real estate loans (RREL) granted for all types of housing units in the country grew by 14.7% year on year.

“This uptick aligns with the results of the Q2 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, which showed a less pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the purchase of a house and lot,” the central bank said.

“Reflecting this shift in sentiment, a larger share of households considered Q2 2025 as a favorable time to purchase residential property,” it added.

By area, loan availments increased by 10.3% year on year in the NCR and by 16.6% in the AONCR. It was highest in the Balance GMA at 22.5%, followed by Metro Cebu at 18.7%, Metro Mindanao 12.9%, and other areas in the Philippines at 4.3%

The BSP said 74.6% of RRELs availed in the April-June period were for new housing units, while 25% were for pre-owned properties and 0.4% for foreclosed.

Over half or 60.4% of the loans were used for houses, while 39.6% were for condominium units.

Banks approved the most housing loans in Calabarzon (33.2% share) and NCR (28.5%), followed by Central Luzon (11.9%), Central Visayas (8.8%), Western Visayas (6.6%), Davao Region (4.2%) and Northern Mindanao (2.3%).

Source: Business World