UK House prices beat forecasts before budget

House prices rose more than expected last month in a further sign of resilient demand despite the possibility of property-related tax reforms in the budget. Average prices rose 0.3 per cent in October after rising by 0.5 per cent in September, mortgage lender Nationwide’s latest house price index showed.

Year-on-year prices were 2.4 per cent higher, up from a 2.2 per cent annual increase in September.

Economists had forecast no change over the month and a 2.3 per cent increase over the year.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief Martin Strydom economist, said: “Against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labor market, this performance indicates resilience, especially since mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all-time highs.

”The figures come after Bank of England data on Wednesday showed that the number of mortgages approved by lenders in September came in higher than expected. Mortgage approvals totalled65,944 during the month, the highest figure since December and above economists’ forecasts of 64,000.

The data are at odds with other measures of the housing market which have suggested a slowing in price growth in recent months, attributed to caution among homebuyers before the budget on November 26.

A report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors published in October quoted Timothy Shaw, of Vincent Shaw estate agents in Cambridge as saying that the housing market was in a “state of semi-paralysis”, with agencies reporting another fall in inquiries, sales, new instructions and prices in September.

It said the autumn slowdown, brought on by speculation about potential reforms to property taxes, has “become more firmly entrenched of late” .Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has said that “higher taxes on the wealthy …will be part of the story” in the budget, with some form of property tax seen as a possibility.

Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, said that data suggested that “homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the budget on November 26, potentially on property, as it first appeared”.

Elliott Jordan-Doak, a senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that while house prices had remained subdued, they were likely to continue rising slowly over the coming months.“ Some homebuyers are taking await-and-see approach to the budget, which is weighing slightly on sentiment in the market.

“But the activity indicators holding up better than their survey-based signals suggests to us that demand remains robust,” he said. Nationwide said housing affordability was likely to improve modestly if income growth continues to outpace house price growth. It also expects borrowing costs to ease, bolstering buyer demand.

Goldman Sachs said this week that after a sharp deterioration in economic data, it expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates by a quarter point to3.75 per cent next week.

Source: The Times

Philippine housing prices rise in Q2

Philippine housing prices increased in the second quarter as consumers were less pessimistic about purchasing residential properties, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

The BSP’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) showed housing prices nationwide went up by 7.5% in the April-June period.

However, this was slower than the 7.6% annual growth seen in the first quarter and the 7.9% a year ago. Quarter on quarter, the RPPI rose by 4.2%, outpacing the 2.6% growth in home prices logged in the first quarter.

The RPPI measures the average price changes over time of various residential properties using banks’ data on actual housing loans. The central bank said the data gives insight on the real estate and credit market conditions in the Philippines.

However, home prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) went up by 2.4% in the second quarter, slowing from the 13.9% in the previous quarter and 9.3% last year.

Quarter on quarter, NCR housing prices contracted by 3.6%.

Outside of NCR (AONCR), home prices rose by 11.5% during the April to June period, faster than the 3% in the first quarter and 7.2% a year ago.

Balance Greater Manila Area (GMA) had the highest annual growth in housing prices at 13.2%, followed by Metro Cebu (11.5%), other areas in the Philippines (8.8%), and Metro Mindanao (7.7%).

CONDO PRICES SLUMP

By housing type, condominium unit prices dipped by 0.2% in the second quarter, a reversal from the 11.5% increase in the comparable year-ago period and the 10.6% growth last quarter.

The cost of houses, which include single-attached or detached units, apartments, townhouses and duplexes, rose by 13.1% year on year. This was faster than the 5.4% in 2024 and 4.5% in the first quarter.

Data from the central bank showed the median price for all housing types in the Philippines stood at P3.4 million in the second quarter. Condominium units had a median price of P3.8 million, while houses cost around P3.1 million.

Houses in the NCR were the most expensive at a median price of P7.01 million, while houses in other areas in the Philippines were the cheapest at about P2.7 million.

In the second quarter, residential real estate loans (RREL) granted for all types of housing units in the country grew by 14.7% year on year.

“This uptick aligns with the results of the Q2 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, which showed a less pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the purchase of a house and lot,” the central bank said.

“Reflecting this shift in sentiment, a larger share of households considered Q2 2025 as a favorable time to purchase residential property,” it added.

By area, loan availments increased by 10.3% year on year in the NCR and by 16.6% in the AONCR. It was highest in the Balance GMA at 22.5%, followed by Metro Cebu at 18.7%, Metro Mindanao 12.9%, and other areas in the Philippines at 4.3%

The BSP said 74.6% of RRELs availed in the April-June period were for new housing units, while 25% were for pre-owned properties and 0.4% for foreclosed.

Over half or 60.4% of the loans were used for houses, while 39.6% were for condominium units.

Banks approved the most housing loans in Calabarzon (33.2% share) and NCR (28.5%), followed by Central Luzon (11.9%), Central Visayas (8.8%), Western Visayas (6.6%), Davao Region (4.2%) and Northern Mindanao (2.3%).

Source: Business World

How Trump Might Fix A ‘Housing Emergency’ in the US

There are no easy solutions to ease the housing affordability crisis, and some may run counter to President Trump’s other goals. 

The ballooning costs of buying a home have put homeownership out of reach for many Americans for quite some time, and last week the White House weighed in. “We may declare a national housing emergency in the fall,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Washington Examiner in a Labor Day interview, but he provided scant detail beyond suggesting that the administration is looking at ways to standardize building codes and trim closing costs.

Some experts are concerned that such an emergency declaration would amount to an empty gesture. Although an affordability crisis is undoubtedly ongoing, there are no simple solutions, and many steps that could address the issue run counter to President Donald Trump’s other goals. “There are no shortcuts to answering this problem, because it took a long time to create,” says Andrew Wells, chief investment officer of investment management firm SanJac Alpha. “Either mortgage rates have to come down, or the cost of things associated with homeownership like insurance have to come down.” Of course, there is no guarantee that any patches are in the works.

Moreover, it “remains unclear exactly what kind of emergency measures the administration could take to address housing, or even if using emergency powers in this way is lawful,” notes Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner. Assuming a declaration is issued, there are practical limitations on what the White House could do to address long-term affordability issues. Some of the president’s keystone policies, like tariffs and mass deportations, are contributing to housing costs, given increasing prices for things like lumber, steel, and labor. Although most of the market is focused on interest-rate cuts that Trump has demanded, which may come as early as this month, they won’t necessarily bring down mortgage rates.

After the last round of rate cuts in 2024, mortgage rates actually finished the year higher, as they (and long-dated Treasuries) take into account other data, including inflation and economic expectations. Likewise, Wells warns that if the government offers a tax rebate or subsidy, that only goes so far in helping Americans buy an “unaffordable asset, and you’re back to printing checks again,” like the pandemic-era stimulus checks that contributed to inflation and higher housing prices.

The housing bubble and subprime mortgage crisis helped kick off the 2008-09 global financial crisis, so there was a reluctance to build homes in the aftermath. However, some 20 million households have been formed since, and only 18 million homes have been built. There are some actions the president could try to increase supply, but these are likely to be met with resistance.

“Overriding, or at least standardizing, local laws on zoning would be a great step toward allowing builders to deliver the inventory needed,” says Berner. “Streamlining the permitting process and putting fewer restrictions on builders would be a great way to augment home inventory.”

That probably would boost builder stocks. The iShares US Home Construction exchange-traded fund is slightly trailing the S&P 500 index this year, although some builders, like D.R. Horton and PulteGroup, have surged more than 25%. Others, like Lennar and NVR, have lagged behind peers. Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Homebuilders trade group, also hopes deregulation will be part of any executive action, arguing for a “secure and affordable supply chain of building materials, and enacting policies that address a lack of skilled labor in construction.

A proactive agenda to bring down material, construction, and labor costs will also help.” The problem is that many high demand areas, like the Northeast, are likely to want to keep their local regulations for safety and environmental reasons—and blue states are more likely to challenge changes in court. Still, any well-reasoned action would be better than nothing.

According to the builders’ trade group, 75% of American households can’t afford a median-price new home. That means there could be ample public support to smooth the way for any popular policies that ease this crisis. Yet any lasting solution will necessarily be multipronged and take time to implement. No matter what happens, it seems as if the current house of cards can’t stand much longer 

Source: Barrons