Real estate risks need closer scrutiny

Even as the Philippine banking system has remained resilient, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said risks in the real estate sector and consumer credit still require closer monitoring and could prompt the central bank to intervene.

“Financial stability risks remain contained. The banking system has sufficient liquidity and capital buffers, and nonperforming loans (NPL) are low,” an IMF spokesperson said.

Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed the banking industry’s NPL ratio eased to a three-month low of 3.3% in March.

“However, parts of the commercial real estate sector have seen persistently high vacancies and falling rents, and NPLs for housing loans remain elevated,” the IMF said.

Property consultant Colliers Philippines expects the vacancy rate for residential property in Metro Manila to hit 26% by yearend, while office vacancies are projected at 22% this year amid condominium oversupply and slow take-up of unsold units.

The BSP in its latest Financial Stability Report noted the “rising NPLs in the real estate sector.”

The NPL ratio for residential real estate was at 6.82%, while commercial real estate NPLs were 2.18% as of September 2024. The bulk (62.5%) of the real estate loan portfolio consists mostly of commercial loans.

The BSP also earlier said the mid- and low-cost housing segments, which account for a large part of residential real estate loans, have driven the rise in NPLs.

Consumer loans are also another area that the BSP needs to keep an eye on, the IMF said.

“The rapid growth in consumer credit, though a relatively small portion of banking assets, warrants close monitoring,” it said.

BSP data showed outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks rose by 11.8% to P13.19 trillion in March from a year ago.

Consumer loans to residents increased by 23.6% in March to P1.64 trillion, mainly due to the 28.8% jump in credit card loans to P959.43 billion.

The central bank must also be prepared to step in, when necessary, the multilateral institution said.

“The BSP should be ready to adjust macroprudential policy in line with developments in the financial cycle to preempt the buildup of vulnerabilities,” the IMF said.

In the same Financial Stability Report, the BSP said that the financial system’s real estate loan exposure will require “closer monitoring amid evolving market conditions.”

Banks’ real estate exposure ratio rose to 19.75% as of end-December from 19.55% at end-September.

This as total investments and loans extended by Philippine banks and trust departments to the real estate sector grew by 5% to P3.31 trillion as of end-December from P3.15 trillion in 2023.

The BSP monitors lenders’ exposure to the real estate industry as part of its mandate to maintain financial stability.

Source: Business World

How today’s trade war shapes Philippine real estate

President Donald J. Trump’s proposed “Liberation Day” tariffs — an across-the-board 10% levy and a targeted 245% tariff aimed at China — are both dramatic and entirely in line with his long-standing protectionist agenda. Whether these measures are ultimately enacted, softened, or abandoned, their announcement alone has rattled global markets and highlighted the fragility of international trade. For the Philippines, the implications go beyond macroeconomics — they are beginning to register across real estate, particularly within the industrial and office segments.

THE PHILIPPINES IS LEVERAGING TRADE INSTABILITY TO POSITION ITSELF AS A SECONDARY MANUFACTURING HUB

Although global trade volatility has revived fears about the long-term future of globalization, the Philippines is actively attempting to turn crisis into opportunity. The Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) has championed the country as a “China+1+1” destination — a fallback manufacturing location for companies moving beyond China and its first-wave alternatives like Vietnam and Taiwan. This positioning is already bearing fruit. In 2024, 95% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Philippines went to manufacturing, and from 2021 to 2024, the sector posted a 38.63% compound annual growth rate.

STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO WEIGH DOWN THE PHILIPPINES’ MANUFACTURING INVESTMENT POTENTIAL

Yet this momentum comes with persistent obstacles. High electricity costs, regulatory friction, and unpredictable policymaking continue to hinder the country’s ability to fully convert investor interest into sustained industrial activity. According to the Department of Energy, the Philippines has the third highest industrial electricity rate in ASEAN — behind only Cambodia and Singapore. In 2024, the country ranked 49th out of 67 in the IMD’s global anti-red tape index and 114th out of 180 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, with a score of just 33. International trade agencies such as the US Department of State and Export Development Canada have also pointed to regulatory inconsistency and political uncertainty as deterrents to investment.

PHILIPPINE EXPORTS ARE 16.8% US-BOUND, HIGHLIGHTING VULNERABILITY BUT ALSO ROOM TO DIVERSIFY

Mr. Trump’s tariff rhetoric has also reignited fears among Philippine exporters. The US is the Philippines’ single largest export market, absorbing 16.8% of exports in 2024 — worth over $12 billion. While electronics dominate the basket (including integrated circuits and office machine parts), the US also buys substantial volumes of coconut oil, leather goods, and agricultural products. Should a proposed 17% tariff on Philippine goods materialize, it could create headwinds across numerous industries.

Still, the Philippines’ export portfolio is not overly concentrated. Japan (14.1%), Hong Kong (13.1%), and China (12.9%) closely follow the US, suggesting that smart policy and market development could help diversify demand and cushion shocks.

A PERSISTENT PRODUCTION SHORTFALL DRIVES THE PHILIPPINES TO IMPORT 7.2 MILLION METRIC TONS OF STEEL ANNUALLY

One of the less visible, yet highly consequential, ripple effects of the trade war is its influence on construction material costs — particularly steel. The Philippines produces just 1.5 million metric tons of crude steel annually, on average, according to the World Steel Association. Domestic output covers only a fraction of national demand, forcing the country to import around 7.2 million metric tons per year. Roughly 67% of these imports come from China, based on 2024 data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.

Meanwhile, China’s share of steel exports to the United States has fallen drastically — from 8% in 2014 to just 2.1% in 2023. With US tariffs pushing Chinese suppliers out of the American market, many of those exports may be redirected to Asia, including the Philippines. As a result, input costs for developers could soften despite global tension — especially for steel-intensive projects in industrial and infrastructure sectors.

WITH US STEEL IMPORTS FROM CHINA DOWN 75%, PHILIPPINE CONSTRUCTION MAY BENEFIT FROM REDIRECTED SUPPLY

Amid rising trade barriers, Chinese steel producers are likely to seek alternative destinations for surplus inventory. As US demand drops further under tariff pressure, the Philippines could benefit from excess supply. Given that 80% of the country’s steel consumption is used in construction, lower prices could directly reduce development costs — potentially accelerating project timelines and making new industrial zones more financially viable.

This is a key consideration in assessing industrial real estate’s medium-term outlook. Falling input costs may catalyze new warehousing, logistics, and manufacturing facility construction at a time when global investors are exploring alternative supply chain routes.

THE OUTSOURCING SECTOR IS PROJECTED TO GROW LESS THAN 7% IN 2025 AMID GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

In the services sector, particularly in office real estate, the BPO industry faces its own set of pressures. While trade tariffs don’t directly affect services, the Philippines’ strong reliance on US clients exposes the industry to secondary risks. North America accounts for 70% of Philippine outsourcing demand. The sector also contributed $7 billion — or 9% of national GDP — and drove 19% of office demand in 2024.

IBPAP forecasts slower growth in 2025, with the sector expected to expand by less than 7%. While BPO will remain foundational to the office market, risks from reshoring (returning operations to the US) and nearshoring (relocating to nearby countries) will temper expansion. Still, the sector’s fundamentals remain intact, and strategic interventions can help maintain competitiveness.

LOWERING ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD UNLOCK BROADER INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY

One policy lever that could unlock multiple benefits is addressing energy affordability. In the short to medium term, the government could consider targeted subsidies for energy-intensive industries — especially manufacturing. In 2024, 70.9% of all energy investment pledges were committed to renewable energy. While this signals progress toward long-term sustainability, short-term competitiveness will require bridging the affordability gap.

Vietnam once implemented cross-subsidization mechanisms to keep industrial power costs competitive. Germany has proposed covering up to 80% of power costs for energy-heavy sectors like steel and chemicals. A similar intervention in the Philippines could attract more foreign manufacturers and alleviate cost pressures for domestic producers.

UPSKILLING AND POSITIONING THE PHILIPPINE WORKFORCE AS ‘AI-READY’ WILL SUSTAIN BPO SECTOR GROWTH

The BPO sector’s other challenge is technological disruption. But here, the Philippines shows promise. A 2024 Microsoft Philippines and LinkedIn study found that 86% of Filipino knowledge workers use AI at work — well above the global average of 75%. This positions the country not as a laggard, but as a potential leader in human-AI complementarity.

 By investing in AI upskilling and moving up the value chain — toward healthcare, finance, and analytics — the Philippines can future-proof its BPO sector. Rather than being displaced by AI, the workforce can evolve with it.

STRATEGIC FRICTION IS A TEST — AND AN OPENING

Trade wars are a symptom of a fractured global order, but they also expose underlying weaknesses — and hidden advantages. For the Philippines, the challenge is not only to weather the storm, but to position itself for what comes after. With the right supply-side reforms, forward-looking workforce development, and sector-specific interventions, the country can convert external turbulence into long-term opportunities.

Source: Business World

Real estate lending to require closer monitoring amid rising risks

Lending to the real estate sector will need tighter supervision amid emerging risks that could impact the financial system, a Philippine central bank report showed.

“Real estate loan (REL) exposures need closer monitoring amid evolving market conditions,” the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in its latest financial stability report.

“The high-interest rate environment, shifting consumer preferences, remote work arrangements and recent government pronouncements banning Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO) have implications on the sector’s loan quality.”

Latest data from the BSP showed Philippine banks and trust entities’ real estate exposure ratio rose to 19.75% as of end-December from 19.55% at end-September.

The central bank monitors lenders’ exposure to the real estate industry as part of its mandate to maintain financial stability.

Broken down, real estate loans increased by 7.9% year on year to P2.95 trillion at end-December. This as residential real estate loans climbed by an annual 9.6% to P1.1 trillion, while commercial real estate loans went up by 6.9% to P1.85 trillion.

The BSP also noted the rise in nonperforming loans in the real estate sector. Data showed the bulk or 62.5% of the NPL portfolio consists of commercial real estate.

“However, majority of the nonperforming RELs are residential RELs at 65.2% against commercial RELs at 34.8% as of September 2024,” it added.

The BSP also said that the rise in bad loans was driven by the mid- and low-cost housing segments as they account for a large share in residential loans.

“What does not show up as higher NPLs for commercial real estate are likely to be seen in the financial statements of real estate developers,” it added.

Joey Roi H. Bondoc, director and head of research at Colliers Philippines, said consumers could be struggling to pay back their loans, which is why developers are finding ways to offer more flexible payment terms.

“Based on anecdotes that we have been getting, a lot of buyers right now are scouting and looking for the most attractive payment terms or incentives, especially in the ready-for-occupancy (RFO) market,” he said in a phone call.

Mr. Bondoc said there is a “pretty substantial” number of unsold RFO units in the market, especially in the mid-income segment, which covers nearly 60% of unsold RFO units.

“Essentially, six out of 10 unsold RFO (units) are from the mid-income segment, which is heavily dependent on bank mortgages,” he added.

He noted some developers are extending downpayment terms among other measures to make financing more accessible.

“Banks should also be more cautious moving forward because the ready-for-occupancy (RFO) promos are getting sweeter, they’re getting extended, but you don’t want to see the market falling into that trap again,” Mr. Bondoc said.

The BSP noted the oversupply in the property market, especially in the condominium segment. It noted it would take 34 months for the current condominium supply to be sold.

“Despite recovery in prices, vacancies remain elevated amid the increase in residential real estate supply,” the central bank said.

The rise in new units is outpacing net take-ups in the secondary market, it added.

“It will be very interesting this first quarter because we’re seeing tepid launches. Developers are almost not launching new projects at this point,” Mr. Bondoc said.

OTHER RISKS

Meanwhile, the BSP also flagged other risks to the real estate sector.

“A potential risk is the buildup of in-house financing as reflected in the installment contract receivables of real estate developers. These contribute to revenues but also expose developers to credit risk.”

“Past due and impaired receivables remain elevated including in real estate developers exposed to POGOs,” it added.

While property developers are seeking ways to provide more enticing payment terms, Mr. Bondoc noted it is unlikely that there will be significant price reductions.

However, he noted that once the central bank continues cutting interest rates, this would result in lower mortgage rates.

“Probably that’s when we might start seeing low interest rates having a positive impact, kicking in and resulting in lower mortgage rates. Therefore, perhaps chipping in to greater take-up in the pre-selling sector.”

Housing prices rose by 6.7% year on year in the fourth quarter, according to the latest Residential Real Estate Price Index. This was a turnaround from the 2.3% decline in the previous quarter.

The Monetary Board cut the key rate by a total of 75 basis points last year.

While the central bank delivered a pause at its first meeting in 2025, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said it is still on an easing trajectory and has signaled further rate cuts this year.

Apart from lower interest rates, real estate loan demand could also be impacted by remittance flows, Mr. Bondoc said.

“I think that will be crucial because data from the central bank would also show that more remittance-receiving households are in fact allocating money for real estate requirements,” he said.

The BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey also showed that 5% of households plan to buy or acquire real property in the next 12 months, up from 4.8% a year ago.

Source: Business World