Remittances growth hit 5-mo high of 3.7% in Sept

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) jumped by an annual 3.7% in September, the fastest pace in five months, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday.

Data from the central bank showed cash remittances rose to $3.12 billion in September from $3.01 billion in the same month in 2024.

This was the fastest growth since the 4% logged in April.

Month on month, cash remittances increased by 4.84% from $2.977 billion in August.

For the first nine months of the year, cash remittances sent through banks increased by 3.2% to $26.03 billion from $25.23 billion a year ago.

“The United States remained the top source of remittances to the Philippines during January-September 2025, followed by Singapore, and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement.

Cash remittances from the US accounted for 40.4% of the total in the nine-month period.

This was followed by Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (4.9%) the United Kingdom (4.8%), the United Arab Emirates (4.5%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%) and South Korea (2.5%).

Meanwhile, personal remittances went up by 3.8% to $3.46 billion in September from $3.34 billion a year earlier.

In the January-to-September period, personal remittances rose by 3.2% to $28.97 billion from $28.07 billion a year ago.

Personal remittances include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels as well as in-kind remittances.

Analysts said OFWs sent home more money starting September, as the holiday season approaches.

“The ‘ber’ months effect kicked in early, with OFWs sending more ahead of the long holiday season,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

He added that the strong labor market and a competitive peso also supported remittance growth in September.

The peso closed at P58.196 per dollar on Sept. 30, weakening by P1.066 or 1.87% from P57.13 on Aug. 29.

In September, the country’s unemployment rate improved to 3.8% from 3.9% in August. For the first nine months, the jobless rate stood at 4.1%, a tad higher than 4% in the same period last year.

“The onset of ‘ber’ months marks the start of the holiday season for Filipinos. Thus, we may expect OFWs to send their earnings to their families here for the celebrations and gatherings,” Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt M. Erece said.

Mr. Erece said remittance growth could be faster from October to December, before stabilizing in January 2026.

“For the fourth quarter, expect remittances to stay resilient and peak in December. BSP’s 3% full-year growth target looks well within reach,” Mr. Ravelas likewise said.

The BSP expects cash remittances to grow by 3% to $35.5 billion this year.

Source: Business World

Remittances dip in August but remain higher year-on-year

Money sent home by overseas Filipinos (OFs) eased in August from July’s seven-month high, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed on Wednesday.

Personal remittances slid to $3.31 billion from $3.35 billion a month earlier. It was, however, 3.2 percent higher compared to the year-ago $3.21 billion.

Cash remittances alone totaled $2.98 billion, also 3.2 percent higher than the $2.89 billion in August last year but lower than July’s $3.18 billion.

The year-on-year gain, the BSP said, “developed on account of higher inflows from both land-based and sea-based workers.”

Land-based OFs were said to have accounted for $2.35 billion, while the sea-based OFWs added $626 million.

SMIC chief economist Dan Roces noted the pickup in cash remittance growth from July’s 3.0 percent, which he said “suggests that remittance flows have some resilience despite global headwinds, and reflects, in part, a lower comparative base or mild fluctuations in monthly flows.”

A weaker peso, he added, will likely boost remittances as recipients benefit from a more favorable exchange rate.

“Evidence from BSP studies has highlighted the positive role of exchange rate depreciation as a driver of remittances,” Roces said.

“The ‘ber’ months (September to December), when remittances traditionally rise, may buoy the remainder of the year,” he added.

Year to date, personal remittances were up 3.1 percent to $25.51 billion from $24.74 billion, while cash remittances also rose 3.1 percent to $22.91 billion from $22.22 billion in January-August 2024.

The United States remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40.4 percent of the eight-month total. Singapore followed at 7.1 percent and Saudi Arabia at 6.3 percent.

Rounding up the top five were Japan (4.9 percent) and the United Kingdom (4.8 percent).

The BSP noted limitations on data by source, as remittance centers abroad normally send the money through correspondent banks that are mostly located in the US.

Also, remittances sent through couriers are recorded under the country where their main offices are located, which again in many cases is the US.

“Therefore, the US would appear to be the main source of OF remittances because banks attribute the origin of funds to the most immediate source,” the BSP said.

Source: Manila Times

Remittances likely to remain resilient for rest of 2025

Cash remittances are projected to remain resilient for the rest of the year, potentially surpassing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2.8% full-year growth target, analysts said.

However, they also warned of possible external shocks that could dampen remittance growth.

“We’re on track. First-half growth hit 3.1%, already above BSP’s 2.8% forecast,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said.

“If global labor markets stay resilient and the peso remains competitive, we could even beat the (BSP’s) 2.8% full-year target.”

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) rose by 3.1% to $16.75 billion in the first six months of the year, with land-based workers contributing the bulk of the increase.

The BSP is targeting a 2.8% growth in remittances this year, and 3% growth for 2026.

Remittance inflows are expected to accelerate ahead of the holiday season, analysts said.

“We expect remittances to remain a constant and reliable source of foreign currency over the next few months, with a seasonal acceleration as we enter the fourth quarter of the year,” Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the BSP’s full-year target of 2.8% remittance growth is “well within reach.”

“Remittance flows are expected to remain resilient, supported by seasonal inflows during the ‘ber’ months and improving global labor conditions,” he said.

Analysts warned the US government’s 1% tax on remittances, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, will have a dampening effect on remittances from US-based Filipinos.

“However, the proposed 1% remittance tax in the US could pose downside risks in 2026. While the BSP’s 3% growth target remains achievable, the tax may dampen inflows from the US — currently the largest source — unless mitigated by digital remittance innovations or policy support,” Mr. Asuncion said.

The tax will be applied on cash-based remittance transfers from US-based senders, regardless of citizenship status.

BSP data showed the US remained the top source of remittances to the country in the first half, accounting for 40.1% of total remittances for the period.

“The proposed 1% US remittance tax could dampen inflows (from formal channels) slightly if implemented, but its real impact will depend on scope, implementation, and possible offsets from fintech cost reductions or regulatory responses,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in Viber message.

Mr. Ravelas said the proposed tax is a “red flag,” as it might encourage senders to use informal channels.

“That’s a red flag. The US sends over 40% of our remittances. A 1% tax could dampen flows or push senders to informal channels,” he said. “We’ll need to watch how it’s implemented and prepare support mechanisms for OFWs.”

Mr. Mapa said OFWs have been “creative” in finding ways to send money back home in the past.

“We could still expect remittance flows to remain robust in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted US protectionist policies and stricter immigration rules could weigh on remittances from the US.

“Trump’s threats of higher reciprocal tariffs and other America-first policies could also slow down global trade, investments, employment including some OFW jobs, and overall world economic growth,” he said in an e-mail. “This could also indirectly slow down the growth in OFW remittances from other countries around the world.”

Source: Business World