Remittances likely to remain resilient for rest of 2025

Cash remittances are projected to remain resilient for the rest of the year, potentially surpassing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2.8% full-year growth target, analysts said.

However, they also warned of possible external shocks that could dampen remittance growth.

“We’re on track. First-half growth hit 3.1%, already above BSP’s 2.8% forecast,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said.

“If global labor markets stay resilient and the peso remains competitive, we could even beat the (BSP’s) 2.8% full-year target.”

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) rose by 3.1% to $16.75 billion in the first six months of the year, with land-based workers contributing the bulk of the increase.

The BSP is targeting a 2.8% growth in remittances this year, and 3% growth for 2026.

Remittance inflows are expected to accelerate ahead of the holiday season, analysts said.

“We expect remittances to remain a constant and reliable source of foreign currency over the next few months, with a seasonal acceleration as we enter the fourth quarter of the year,” Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the BSP’s full-year target of 2.8% remittance growth is “well within reach.”

“Remittance flows are expected to remain resilient, supported by seasonal inflows during the ‘ber’ months and improving global labor conditions,” he said.

Analysts warned the US government’s 1% tax on remittances, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, will have a dampening effect on remittances from US-based Filipinos.

“However, the proposed 1% remittance tax in the US could pose downside risks in 2026. While the BSP’s 3% growth target remains achievable, the tax may dampen inflows from the US — currently the largest source — unless mitigated by digital remittance innovations or policy support,” Mr. Asuncion said.

The tax will be applied on cash-based remittance transfers from US-based senders, regardless of citizenship status.

BSP data showed the US remained the top source of remittances to the country in the first half, accounting for 40.1% of total remittances for the period.

“The proposed 1% US remittance tax could dampen inflows (from formal channels) slightly if implemented, but its real impact will depend on scope, implementation, and possible offsets from fintech cost reductions or regulatory responses,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in Viber message.

Mr. Ravelas said the proposed tax is a “red flag,” as it might encourage senders to use informal channels.

“That’s a red flag. The US sends over 40% of our remittances. A 1% tax could dampen flows or push senders to informal channels,” he said. “We’ll need to watch how it’s implemented and prepare support mechanisms for OFWs.”

Mr. Mapa said OFWs have been “creative” in finding ways to send money back home in the past.

“We could still expect remittance flows to remain robust in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted US protectionist policies and stricter immigration rules could weigh on remittances from the US.

“Trump’s threats of higher reciprocal tariffs and other America-first policies could also slow down global trade, investments, employment including some OFW jobs, and overall world economic growth,” he said in an e-mail. “This could also indirectly slow down the growth in OFW remittances from other countries around the world.”

Source: Business World

Remittances expected to drop next year, Visa survey finds

Overseas workers expect to cut down on their remittance over the next 12 months, with remittance recipients also expecting a drop-off, according to Visa, Inc., citing the results of a survey.

“All countries surveyed show a decline in expectations to send/receive remittances over the next 12 months,” Visa said.

Visa surveyed 44,000 remittance senders and receivers from 20 countries, including the Philippines.

Only 7% of Filipino respondents said they expect to send remittances over the next 12 months, while 44% expect to receive remittances.

In May, cash remittances coursed through Philippine banks rose 2.9% year on year to $2.658 billion.

This the lowest level of monthly remittances since May 2024.

Within the Asia-Pacific, China posted the steepest expected remittance decline, with those expecting to remit funds at 26%, down 25 percentage points, and those expecting to receive at 21%, down 15 percentage points.

The corresponding figures for Japan were send 3%, receive 4%; India send 18%, receive 28%; and Australia send 25%, receive 22%.

In the Philippines, 41% of respondents said they sent or received remittances due to unexpected needs, while 39% reported receiving regular remittances.

Digital apps remained the most popular method to send or receive remittances in the Asia-Pacific. In the Philippines, 74% of senders and 66% of receivers cited a preference for digital apps.

“In all markets surveyed, second to digital apps (were) digital remittances from a physical location,” Visa said.

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Source: Business World

Real estate prospects clouded by new US tax on remittances

The US decision to impose a 1% remittance tax could serve to dampen property investing activity by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), industry analysts said.

The remittance tax, a component of the Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” will crowd out any OFW funds earmarked for investing and shift priorities towards essentials, they said.

“While the percentage of remittances being allocated for real estate requirements is increasing, that additional tax will likely affect the inflow of remittances from Filipinos working abroad,” Colliers Philippines Director and Head of Research Joey Roi H. Bondoc said in an interview.

“This might affect the money being set aside for real estate purchases. The lower the remittances, the less will be spent for these discretionary purchases, especially in the luxury segment.”

Remittances could dip between $19.1 million and $148.4 million as a result of the tax, the Department of Finance estimated, describing these movements as having a “minimal” effect on the economy.

OFWs are a key segment of the property market, with many turning to real estate for investment income or to upgrade the living conditions of their families back home.

The decline in money sent home by OFWs would affect demand for the industry’s residential and retail offerings, Santos Knight Frank Associate Director Toby Miranda said.

“OFWs are major demand drivers of residential products, and if they were to send less money, there may be a higher risk of canceled purchases,” he said.

“Remittances from OFWs also impact the purchasing power of their families so retail demand may be impacted,” Mr. Miranda added.

Mr. Bondoc noted that Europe-based OFWs are a strong market for upscale and upper middle-income residential units, while luxury residential units are attractive to Filipinos working in Abu Dhabi.

US President Donald J. Trump on July 4 signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill, essentially a tax bill that overhauls tax rates and spending. The 1% excise tax on all remittances represents a softening of the bill’s initial proposal to charge remittances by foreign workers 3.5%.

“Given the uncertainties in the global and domestic market, they (OFWs) might have to put these big-ticket purchases on hold, and perhaps wait a little longer before they finally acquire these residential units that they’ve been aspiring for,” Mr. Bondoc said.

Source: Business World