Remittances seen growing despite ‘Trump volatilities’

Overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances are expected to grow despite a new US tax that took effect Jan. 1.

Maybank Investment Banking Group economist Azril Rosli on Tuesday said that while the bank remained “cautious of potential headwinds from tighter immigration policies and the new one-percent US remittance tax,” remittances were likely to weather “Trump’s volatilities as seen in Trump 1.0 (his first term)” with the support of a “growing share from the Middle East and other parts of Asia.”

The 1.0 percent tax applies to money sent from the US through cash, money orders and cashier’s checks, regardless of the sender’s citizenship. The tax does not apply to transfers made through US banks, US-issued debit or credit cards, or cash carried by hand.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the US remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40 percent of the year-to-date total.

The central bank, however, has said that remittance data has its limits because money sent home by overseas Filipinos often passes through correspondent banks, most of which are based in the United States, and that remittances sent through couriers are also recorded under the country where the courier’s main office is located, again often the US.

Personal and cash remittances respectively rose by 3.2 percent to $35.7 billion and $32.11 billion as of end-November, latest BSP data showed, from $34.6 billion and $31.1 billion in January-November 2024.

The central bank expects remittances to hit $35.5 billion and $36.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Maybank expects remittances to grow to about $36.5 billion this year.

As for economic growth, the bank said this could remain subdued until next year due to domestic and global uncertainties.

“We continue to evaluate emerging risks from the external trade outlook, geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties that could impact economic growth and inflation,” Rosli said.

Maybank said growth could have slowed to 4.8 percent in 2025 from 2024’s 5.7 percent — below the government’s 5.5- to 6.5-percent target.

Growth is expected to rebound to 4.9 percent and 5.2 percent this year and in 2027, respectively, below the government’s downwardly revised 5.0- to 6.0-percent and 5.5- to 6.5-percent targets.

The impact of a flood control project scandal is not expected to be long-term, Rosli said, but this would also depend on whether the government takes concrete steps to address the issue.

“...I believe that the risk that it could influence the economic trajectory, it could be lesser if... the situation has been resolved by the government,” Rosli said.

“And I think the government has also been proactive to actually improve the situation and also given focus on the priorities of the budget funding, especially on the priorities for the people as well,” he added.

Moreover, the BSP’s “gradual easing of monetary policy” is expected to support the rebound in economic growth.

Rosli said the central bank could implement two more rate cuts this year — one 25-basis-point cut in the first half and another in the last six months of the year.

“This gradual approach reflects that the BSP needs to balance supporting modest GDP (gross domestic product) growth, while maintaining vigilance on emerging risks from the external trade outlook as well as geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties,” he said.

Source: Manila Times

Remittances growth hit 5-mo high of 3.7% in Sept

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) jumped by an annual 3.7% in September, the fastest pace in five months, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday.

Data from the central bank showed cash remittances rose to $3.12 billion in September from $3.01 billion in the same month in 2024.

This was the fastest growth since the 4% logged in April.

Month on month, cash remittances increased by 4.84% from $2.977 billion in August.

For the first nine months of the year, cash remittances sent through banks increased by 3.2% to $26.03 billion from $25.23 billion a year ago.

“The United States remained the top source of remittances to the Philippines during January-September 2025, followed by Singapore, and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement.

Cash remittances from the US accounted for 40.4% of the total in the nine-month period.

This was followed by Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (4.9%) the United Kingdom (4.8%), the United Arab Emirates (4.5%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%) and South Korea (2.5%).

Meanwhile, personal remittances went up by 3.8% to $3.46 billion in September from $3.34 billion a year earlier.

In the January-to-September period, personal remittances rose by 3.2% to $28.97 billion from $28.07 billion a year ago.

Personal remittances include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels as well as in-kind remittances.

Analysts said OFWs sent home more money starting September, as the holiday season approaches.

“The ‘ber’ months effect kicked in early, with OFWs sending more ahead of the long holiday season,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

He added that the strong labor market and a competitive peso also supported remittance growth in September.

The peso closed at P58.196 per dollar on Sept. 30, weakening by P1.066 or 1.87% from P57.13 on Aug. 29.

In September, the country’s unemployment rate improved to 3.8% from 3.9% in August. For the first nine months, the jobless rate stood at 4.1%, a tad higher than 4% in the same period last year.

“The onset of ‘ber’ months marks the start of the holiday season for Filipinos. Thus, we may expect OFWs to send their earnings to their families here for the celebrations and gatherings,” Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt M. Erece said.

Mr. Erece said remittance growth could be faster from October to December, before stabilizing in January 2026.

“For the fourth quarter, expect remittances to stay resilient and peak in December. BSP’s 3% full-year growth target looks well within reach,” Mr. Ravelas likewise said.

The BSP expects cash remittances to grow by 3% to $35.5 billion this year.

Source: Business World

Remittances dip in August but remain higher year-on-year

Money sent home by overseas Filipinos (OFs) eased in August from July’s seven-month high, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed on Wednesday.

Personal remittances slid to $3.31 billion from $3.35 billion a month earlier. It was, however, 3.2 percent higher compared to the year-ago $3.21 billion.

Cash remittances alone totaled $2.98 billion, also 3.2 percent higher than the $2.89 billion in August last year but lower than July’s $3.18 billion.

The year-on-year gain, the BSP said, “developed on account of higher inflows from both land-based and sea-based workers.”

Land-based OFs were said to have accounted for $2.35 billion, while the sea-based OFWs added $626 million.

SMIC chief economist Dan Roces noted the pickup in cash remittance growth from July’s 3.0 percent, which he said “suggests that remittance flows have some resilience despite global headwinds, and reflects, in part, a lower comparative base or mild fluctuations in monthly flows.”

A weaker peso, he added, will likely boost remittances as recipients benefit from a more favorable exchange rate.

“Evidence from BSP studies has highlighted the positive role of exchange rate depreciation as a driver of remittances,” Roces said.

“The ‘ber’ months (September to December), when remittances traditionally rise, may buoy the remainder of the year,” he added.

Year to date, personal remittances were up 3.1 percent to $25.51 billion from $24.74 billion, while cash remittances also rose 3.1 percent to $22.91 billion from $22.22 billion in January-August 2024.

The United States remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40.4 percent of the eight-month total. Singapore followed at 7.1 percent and Saudi Arabia at 6.3 percent.

Rounding up the top five were Japan (4.9 percent) and the United Kingdom (4.8 percent).

The BSP noted limitations on data by source, as remittance centers abroad normally send the money through correspondent banks that are mostly located in the US.

Also, remittances sent through couriers are recorded under the country where their main offices are located, which again in many cases is the US.

“Therefore, the US would appear to be the main source of OF remittances because banks attribute the origin of funds to the most immediate source,” the BSP said.

Source: Manila Times