Remittances dip in August but remain higher year-on-year

Money sent home by overseas Filipinos (OFs) eased in August from July’s seven-month high, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed on Wednesday.

Personal remittances slid to $3.31 billion from $3.35 billion a month earlier. It was, however, 3.2 percent higher compared to the year-ago $3.21 billion.

Cash remittances alone totaled $2.98 billion, also 3.2 percent higher than the $2.89 billion in August last year but lower than July’s $3.18 billion.

The year-on-year gain, the BSP said, “developed on account of higher inflows from both land-based and sea-based workers.”

Land-based OFs were said to have accounted for $2.35 billion, while the sea-based OFWs added $626 million.

SMIC chief economist Dan Roces noted the pickup in cash remittance growth from July’s 3.0 percent, which he said “suggests that remittance flows have some resilience despite global headwinds, and reflects, in part, a lower comparative base or mild fluctuations in monthly flows.”

A weaker peso, he added, will likely boost remittances as recipients benefit from a more favorable exchange rate.

“Evidence from BSP studies has highlighted the positive role of exchange rate depreciation as a driver of remittances,” Roces said.

“The ‘ber’ months (September to December), when remittances traditionally rise, may buoy the remainder of the year,” he added.

Year to date, personal remittances were up 3.1 percent to $25.51 billion from $24.74 billion, while cash remittances also rose 3.1 percent to $22.91 billion from $22.22 billion in January-August 2024.

The United States remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40.4 percent of the eight-month total. Singapore followed at 7.1 percent and Saudi Arabia at 6.3 percent.

Rounding up the top five were Japan (4.9 percent) and the United Kingdom (4.8 percent).

The BSP noted limitations on data by source, as remittance centers abroad normally send the money through correspondent banks that are mostly located in the US.

Also, remittances sent through couriers are recorded under the country where their main offices are located, which again in many cases is the US.

“Therefore, the US would appear to be the main source of OF remittances because banks attribute the origin of funds to the most immediate source,” the BSP said.

Source: Manila Times

Remittances likely to remain resilient for rest of 2025

Cash remittances are projected to remain resilient for the rest of the year, potentially surpassing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2.8% full-year growth target, analysts said.

However, they also warned of possible external shocks that could dampen remittance growth.

“We’re on track. First-half growth hit 3.1%, already above BSP’s 2.8% forecast,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said.

“If global labor markets stay resilient and the peso remains competitive, we could even beat the (BSP’s) 2.8% full-year target.”

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) rose by 3.1% to $16.75 billion in the first six months of the year, with land-based workers contributing the bulk of the increase.

The BSP is targeting a 2.8% growth in remittances this year, and 3% growth for 2026.

Remittance inflows are expected to accelerate ahead of the holiday season, analysts said.

“We expect remittances to remain a constant and reliable source of foreign currency over the next few months, with a seasonal acceleration as we enter the fourth quarter of the year,” Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the BSP’s full-year target of 2.8% remittance growth is “well within reach.”

“Remittance flows are expected to remain resilient, supported by seasonal inflows during the ‘ber’ months and improving global labor conditions,” he said.

Analysts warned the US government’s 1% tax on remittances, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, will have a dampening effect on remittances from US-based Filipinos.

“However, the proposed 1% remittance tax in the US could pose downside risks in 2026. While the BSP’s 3% growth target remains achievable, the tax may dampen inflows from the US — currently the largest source — unless mitigated by digital remittance innovations or policy support,” Mr. Asuncion said.

The tax will be applied on cash-based remittance transfers from US-based senders, regardless of citizenship status.

BSP data showed the US remained the top source of remittances to the country in the first half, accounting for 40.1% of total remittances for the period.

“The proposed 1% US remittance tax could dampen inflows (from formal channels) slightly if implemented, but its real impact will depend on scope, implementation, and possible offsets from fintech cost reductions or regulatory responses,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in Viber message.

Mr. Ravelas said the proposed tax is a “red flag,” as it might encourage senders to use informal channels.

“That’s a red flag. The US sends over 40% of our remittances. A 1% tax could dampen flows or push senders to informal channels,” he said. “We’ll need to watch how it’s implemented and prepare support mechanisms for OFWs.”

Mr. Mapa said OFWs have been “creative” in finding ways to send money back home in the past.

“We could still expect remittance flows to remain robust in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted US protectionist policies and stricter immigration rules could weigh on remittances from the US.

“Trump’s threats of higher reciprocal tariffs and other America-first policies could also slow down global trade, investments, employment including some OFW jobs, and overall world economic growth,” he said in an e-mail. “This could also indirectly slow down the growth in OFW remittances from other countries around the world.”

Source: Business World

Remittances expected to drop next year, Visa survey finds

Overseas workers expect to cut down on their remittance over the next 12 months, with remittance recipients also expecting a drop-off, according to Visa, Inc., citing the results of a survey.

“All countries surveyed show a decline in expectations to send/receive remittances over the next 12 months,” Visa said.

Visa surveyed 44,000 remittance senders and receivers from 20 countries, including the Philippines.

Only 7% of Filipino respondents said they expect to send remittances over the next 12 months, while 44% expect to receive remittances.

In May, cash remittances coursed through Philippine banks rose 2.9% year on year to $2.658 billion.

This the lowest level of monthly remittances since May 2024.

Within the Asia-Pacific, China posted the steepest expected remittance decline, with those expecting to remit funds at 26%, down 25 percentage points, and those expecting to receive at 21%, down 15 percentage points.

The corresponding figures for Japan were send 3%, receive 4%; India send 18%, receive 28%; and Australia send 25%, receive 22%.

In the Philippines, 41% of respondents said they sent or received remittances due to unexpected needs, while 39% reported receiving regular remittances.

Digital apps remained the most popular method to send or receive remittances in the Asia-Pacific. In the Philippines, 74% of senders and 66% of receivers cited a preference for digital apps.

“In all markets surveyed, second to digital apps (were) digital remittances from a physical location,” Visa said.

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Source: Business World