Colliers says housing prices may have recovered in Q4

Residential property prices may have picked up in the fourth quarter after the slump a quarter earlier, Colliers Philippines said.

“Similar to what we have seen previously, the fourth quarter is traditionally a strong quarter for residential take-up whether within or outside Metro Manila, whether it’s condominiums or horizontal,” Joey Roi H. Bondoc, director and head of research at Colliers Philippines, said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Residential Property Price Index indicated that housing prices nationwide posted its weakest growth ever in the third quarter at 1.9%.

This was a sharp slowdown from the 7.5% growth posted in the three months to June and the year-earlier 7.6%.

The BSP also reported that lower real estate investment brought banks and trust entities’ real estate exposure down to 19.54% at the end of September from 19.61% at the end of June and 19.55% a year earlier.

Real estate loans climbed 8.9% year on year to P3.096 trillion at the end of September, but real estate investment slipped 5.75% to P354.749 billion.

Mr. Bondoc said yearend bonuses and inflows of remittances from overseas Filipino workers could have spurred demand for residential property in the fourth quarter.

He also noted that the peso’s recent weakness may prompt migrants, especially those from North America, to send more money home.

The peso has been trading between P58 to P59 to the dollar since October, hitting a fresh record low of P59.22 on Dec. 9.

However, Mr. Bondoc said elevated mortgage rates may still continue to dampen housing price growth in the near term, but any potential rate reduction could help property take up and price growth by this quarter next year.

“I think we need to watch out for the… possible reduction in mortgage rates, given that there has been a substantial decline in basic policy rates by the central bank,” he added.

“And if that happens, that will provide a better impetus for a spike in residential demand, and therefore residential prices, starting (in the) first quarter of 2026.”

The BSP ended the year with a fifth straight 25 basis-point (bp) cut on Dec. 11, bringing its total reductions on key borrowing costs to 200 bps since August 2024. The benchmark policy rate is currently at an over three-year low of 4.5%. 

Mr. Bondoc said lowering the mortgage rate between 6% and 6.5% from the current 7.8% could help the property industry by raising confidence among buyers.

“But the concern is that they have not been lowering their mortgage rates,” he added. “If they start doing that next year, 2026, I think (that will be) a very good sign that demand and then prices might recover faster because of this lower mortgage rate.”

Source: Business World

Metro Manila condo inventory may take up to three years to clear

Unsold condominium units in Metro Manila could take about two to three years to be fully absorbed, particularly in areas previously occupied by Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs), property consultancy Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) said.

“I think it will still take about two years, probably three years, to clear out the POGO-induced supply, especially in central business districts where there was heavy POGO presence,” Roy Amado L. Golez, Jr., LPC director for research, consultancy, and valuation, told a media briefing on Wednesday.

As of end-November 2025, Metro Manila’s middle-income condominium inventory rose to 80,300 units across 578 actively selling buildings, up from 74,600 units in the previous quarter. This represents roughly three years and six months of available supply.

Of the total, 53,900 units are pre-selling, while 26,400 are ready-for-occupancy. Quezon City recorded the highest number of unsold condominiums at 19,300 units, followed by the Ortigas area and the cities of Mandaluyong, Pasig, and San Juan with 14,200 units, and the Bay Area with 13,000 units.

Metro Manila continues to grapple with an oversupply of units in the upper middle income to upscale segments, typically priced between P4 million and P12 million, particularly in areas affected by last year’s government POGO ban.

“Fewer speculative buyers dampen primary take-up, while motivated sellers from the POGO period compete in the secondary market with aggressive pricing, further slowing absorption,” LPC said.

Residential demand in the first 11 months of 2025 fell to a six-year low of 24,732 units, down from 42,563 units sold in the same period of 2020. Year on year, units sold declined by 3% from 25,565 units in the first 11 months of 2024.

“But then, there’s still one more month to go, so hopefully developers can sweep all the potential sales and catch up,” Mr. Golez said.

New condominium launches as of end-November dropped by 60% to 5,256 units from 13,226 units a year ago, marking the lowest level since 29,739 units launched in 2020.

“We have a market here where developers are conscious of inventory and are also experiencing low sales. At the same time, reservation sales and actual sales have been flattening or tapering off,” Mr. Golez said.

“The issue in the last few years is that price increases have been too aggressive for many developers,” he added.

Despite the high inventory of unsold units, the Philippines continues to face a growing housing backlog, Mr. Golez noted.

In the office sector, global capability centers (GCCs) — firms specializing in healthcare, finance, and other services — are expected to drive tenant demand in 2026.

“As we enter next year, there is a high probability that tenants will continue to require spaces of 5,000 to 10,000 square meters (sq.m.), especially among global capability centers,” LPC Director for Commercial Leasing Mikko Barranda said.

Year-to-date, office leasing demand in Metro Manila grew 10% to 1.22 million sq.m. from 1.11 million sq.m. during the same period in 2024. The information technology-business process management sector accounted for 549,000 sq.m., followed by traditional firms at 563,000 sq.m., global capability centers at 174,000 sq.m., and government tenants at 74,000 sq.m.

Vacated office space in the fourth quarter fell 59% to 85,000 sq.m. from 205,000 sq.m. in the previous quarter. Year-to-date, LPC recorded 744,000 sq.m. of vacated space.

“As tenants realize that certain districts have a very tight market for certain space sizes, we will likely see spillover activity into other districts,” Mr. Barranda said.

At present, Metro Manila has an office vacancy of 18%, with Bonifacio Global City still the most favored location with a 9% vacancy rate, followed by Makati City at 15%.

Source: Business World

What Would 50-Year Mortgages Mean for US Home Buyers?

The Trump Administration is working to introduce 50-year mortgages for home buyers—a plan that has drawn criticism even from some of the President’s allies, and that experts warn could come with potentially major drawbacks.

President Donald Trump suggested that his Administration would introduce 50-year mortgages in a Truth Social post over the weekend. Soon after, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte posted on X: “Thanks to President Trump, we are indeed working on The 50 year Mortgage—a complete game changer.”

The 50-year mortgage would mark a significant extension on the most common type of mortgage in the U.S., a 30-year fixed mortgage, in which the loan is amortized—or paid off—over a 30-year period.

Several right-wing commentators and lawmakers were quick to voice opposition to the idea, which Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said in a post on X would “ultimately reward the banks, mortgage lenders. and home builders while people pay far more in interest over time and die before they ever pay off their home.”

The Trump Administration’s proposal also generated criticism from housing experts, who say that the benefits to home buyers would be minimal. Here’s what a 50-year mortgage would mean for prospective home buyers.

What are the benefits?

The monthly payments for a 50-year mortgage would be lower than those for a 30-year mortgage, according to Alex Schwartz, professor of urban policy at The New School. 

Imagine, for instance, that a person is purchasing a $500,000 home with a 30-year mortgage. The current average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is about 6.22%, according to Freddie Mac. That means if the home buyer put down a down payment of 20%, their monthly payment of the principal and interest would be $2,455, according to Fannie Mae’s mortgage calculator.

But if they took out a 50-year mortgage, again with a down payment of 20%, then their monthly payment of principal and interest—assuming that the interest rate is the same—would be $2,171, according to Fannie Mae. That’s a little under $300 less than the monthly payment for a 30-year mortgage.

“It’s a reduction, but it’s not dramatic,” Schwartz says of the difference between monthly payments for 30- and 50-year mortgages.

He also notes that the interest rate for a 50-year mortgage likely wouldn’t be the same as that for a 30-year mortgage, which could reduce the potential savings. A higher interest rate is just one of a few possible drawbacks to a 50-year mortgage, he says.

What are the drawbacks?

One drawback of a 50-year mortgage is that it would take home buyers longer to pay off their debt.

“If you were 30 years old and bought a home with a 30-year mortgage, it would be owned free and clear at age 60, so you’d only have to pay property taxes and maintenance on the home, no longer having to pay a mortgage during your older years or retirement,” Schwartz says. 

“If you were now paying a loan for a 50-year mortgage, and you’re 30, the mortgage wouldn’t end until you’re 80, and so you would have a period of time, most likely during retirement, where you have to pay the debt service costs on top of the property taxes and maintenance,” he continues.

The other issue, Schwartz says, is that homeowners wouldn’t build equity as quickly with a 50-year mortgage as they would with a 30-year mortgage. For the first several years of a mortgage, a homeowner is primarily paying interest; it takes several years before they actually start reducing their debt. Buyers with a 50-year mortgage would be paying down their debt much more slowly compared to a 30-year mortgage.

If housing prices go down, Schwartz fears that people with a 50-year mortgage may then have negative equity, meaning they would owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth.

Schwartz also says that, most likely, the interest rate for a 50-year mortgage would be higher than that of a 30-year mortgage. Currently, interest rates for 30-year mortgages are higher than those of 15-year mortgages.

“There are major trade-offs here,” Schwartz says. “Your monthly payment is somewhat reduced, [but] it will take a lot longer to build equity in your home, it would take longer to actually retire the mortgage so that when you’re older your housing affordability problems would be greater when you’re out of the workforce than they would be if you have a 30-year mortgage, and you are at greater risk of having negative equity.”

Would a 50-year mortgage help address housing affordability?

According to Schwartz, not in any significant way. For people who are “squeezed” on their current mortgage, if they chose to refinance for a 50-year mortgage, their monthly payments would become more affordable, Schwartz says. But he warns that a longer-term mortgage would carry significant risks.

“Is this going to make home ownership more accessible for first-time home buyers? I don’t think so,” he says.

Amid criticism over the proposal, Pulte acknowledged in a post on X, “We hear you. We are laser focused on ensuring the American Dream for YOUNG PEOPLE and that can only happen on the economic level of homebuying. A 50 Year Mortgage is simply a potential weapon in a WIDE arsenal of solutions that we are developing right now. STAY TUNED!”

The President also responded to criticism over the idea. In an interview with Fox News, he said a 50-year mortgage is “not even a big deal.”

“All it means is you pay less per month,” Trump said. “You pay it over a longer period of time. It’s not like a big factor. It might help a little bit.”

Source: Time