The singular rise of solo living in UK

More than one in eight of us now live alone, and it is changing the kind of houses developers are building.

More than one in eight of us now live alone, with the surge in solitary homeowners and renters outstripping the general rise in the UK population. There are 8.4 million people living alone, that is 13 per cent of all households.

This has gone up by 620,000 in ten years, an increase of about 8 per cent. The population of the UK has gone up by 6 per cent in that time, according to the Office for National Statistics. It is forecast that by 2039 there will be 10.7 million people living alone in the UK.

But it’s not affluent young professionals leading this demographic charge — it’s older people. Those aged 65 and over account for 93 per cent of the growth in single-person households in the past decade. And more than twice as many men — an increase of 415,000 compared with 204,000 women — went solo between 2013 and 2023.

The number of people aged between 25 and 44 living alone fell from 18.8 per cent in 2013 to 17.5 per cent in 2023. Several affluent London postcodes are singleton territory, with more than half the occupants of the City (51 per cent) going it alone, followed by Kensington and Chelsea (43.7 per cent) and Westminster (42.7 per cent).

The national average is 30 per cent. But there are interesting outliers, according to the property consultancy JLL. These include Norwich, where 38.9 per cent of households are single, and the Lancashire seaside resort of Blackpool (38 per cent).

In a report last year, local services in Blackpool identified “an oversupply of poor-quality one-person accommodation and limited choice of family housing”. In Norwich, where a high proportion (15 per cent) of over-65s live alone, many students from the city’s two universities stay on after graduating, according to Mason Burrell from the local estate agency Brown & Co. “Norwich is well suited [to single living] in that it has a large number of terraced houses, starter homes and one-bedroom apartments.”

The estate agency Hamptons analyzed claims for the single person council tax discount, which entitles occupiers to 25 per cent off their bill, and found that Blackpool and South Tyneside, where 42 per cent claim, followed by Norwich and the Kent coastal town of Hastings, with 40 per cent, were at the forefront.

“Areas where people are most likely to live alone tend to have more elderly populations,” says Aneisha Beveridge from Hamptons. “Whereas areas with fewer single occupants are some of the most unaffordable parts of the country and/or suburban hotspots, which tend to be dominated by families.”

10.7 Million: Projected number of single UK households by 2039

People living alone are less likely to own their home. This is largely down to affordability. In 2024 the average income for a mortgaged household was 66 per cent higher than that of a single person, down from 75 per cent in 2022 and from the 20-year high of 90 per cent in 2015, according to the estate agency Savills. A single person in full-time employment would need to borrow seven times their annual earnings to purchase the average property in the UK. This rises to more than nine times their salary in London and the southeast. “There is a clear, marked disparity in earnings, and hence borrowing power, between a mortgaged household and that of the average single person,” says Nick Maud, the director of research at Savills. “Our data presents a stark illustration of the significant challenges faced by single people in accessing debt and therefore the housing market, compared with households that include two or more working people. “Those priced out of the owner occupier market, either through circumstance or lifestyle choice, turn to the rental market, which places further strain on a sector which is already experiencing a constriction in supply.” Requirements for renting differ by age. “We find singles under 30 are generally more open to living in a flatshare and often team up with a friend to find a suitable property,” says Adam Jennings, the head of lettings at the estate agency Chestertons. “Singles aged 30 and over tend to have a more established career path and larger budget. The majority of this age group favors living alone and are in a financial position to do so. “Younger tenants don’t always plan to live in their flat long-term, while singles aged 30 and over want to create more of a home and are looking to sign long-term tenancy agreements of two years and more.” Not enough new homes are being built to meet the increase in single households. Apartments make up 40 to 45 per cent of all new homes, according to the Home Builders Federation, a trade body. “But significant constraints remain,” according to its chief executive, Neil Jefferson. “Planning policy changes are welcome, but a lack of affordable mortgage lending is suppressing demand.” Although touted as an affordable answer for single buyers, shared ownership homes, whereby people buy a portion of the property and pay rent on the rest, represented less than 1 per cent of households in the 2020 English Housing Survey. Build to rent (BTR), when properties are purpose-built for the rental market, is becoming a popular option, with more than 265,000 either finished, in the pipeline or planning. “According to our joint research with Savills, BTR is in the new-homes pipeline for 67 per cent of local authorities,” says Ian Fletcher, the director of policy at the British Property Federation, a trade organization. “These homes cater to people living solo, providing well-maintained properties and security of tenure. But they are primarily located in towns and commuter hubs, meaning there will be areas of the country where options for people to live alone will be constrained.” Fletcher highlights both BTR and co-living projects, such as the developments by the London firm Pocket Living, where 88 per cent of buyers are single and paying at least 20 per cent below market value — £232,000 to £300,000 for one-bedroom apartments — as important building blocks in addressing the needs of singletons. “Another consideration is the effect on mental health and loneliness,” Fletcher says. “We hear a lot that the communities in co-living and BTR are an important part of why people choose to live there. You get the best of both worlds, a place of your own and communal spaces.”

Trump's tariffs will raise the roof on US home prices

Homes – the most expensive item most Americans ever buy – are about to get even pricier if the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs take effect.

An analysis from John Burns Research and Consulting, which focuses on the housing industry, estimates the cost of a newly constructed home will increase by nearly 5% if the White House’s proposed tariffs are implemented. That’s about $21,000 on the median-priced new home.

While the Trump administration paused proposed 25% levies on Canada and Mexico for at least a month, a 10% tariff on goods imported from China took effect Monday.

Tariffs "are going to be an affordability shock if they come through,” said Matthew Saunders, senior vice president of building products research at the company.

Residential construction requires many ingredients. In most categories, the vast majority of the import supplies come from the trading partners targeted this month.

Roughly 60% of all hardware imports come from China, Canada and Mexico, according to Saunders’ analysis. Nearly three-quarters of imported sawmill wood products come from Canada. And perhaps surprisingly, the U.S. imports more major household appliances from Mexico, by dollar amount, than from China.

Though 5% may not sound like a lot, some context is crucial. The median price of a new home in December 2024 was $427,000, according to the Census Bureau. That’s up 30% in five years – and mortgage rates now are roughly double what they were just before the COVID-19 pandemic.

And tariffs may also have some knock-on effects, Saunders noted. For example, domestic suppliers of materials are likely to raise their prices in line with those from tariff-affected countries simply because they can.

The simmering trade war with Canada is also likely to affect the supply of lumber in the longer run, said Stinson Dean, an investor who runs Deacon Lumber.

“The bigger problem is the long-term effect of making sawmill operations in Canada unviable because of their increased cost to do business in the U.S.,” Dean said. “We don't need that much lumber right now because of the state of the housing market, but eventually that'll change, and we'll need all the lumber we can get.”

When consumer demand for new homes perks up – likely when mortgage rates fall significantly – the production capacity won’t be there, he said.  

“You don't even have to implement the tariff. The threat of the tariff has already done the damage to potential increases in supply.”

Higher costs for building materials also exacerbate severe labor shortages in the construction industry, Saunders said. Many homebuilders won’t be able to swallow all of the additional costs, and at some point consumers won’t be able to afford to buy.

“In terms of immigration, potential deportations, tariffs, these are all adding to what's already an unsupportable environment.”

Source: USA Today

Climate Scores for US Homes Are the New Big Number

Listings websites such as Zillow have tools that let buyers learn about their dream home’s risk of flood, fire, and wind damage.

Forget about square feet and the number of bathrooms. Home buyers now will also be asking about the weather. Many people move to areas endangered by extreme weather events because the lifestyle and cost of living outweigh the risks. But that is changing, with soaring insurance costs, two recent devastating hurricanes, and now the ferocious wildfires in Los Angeles underscoring the issue.

Home listings giant Zillow Group is rolling out climate-risk estimates that size up a home’s likelihood of damage from flood, fire, and wind over the next 30 years. These scores, along with soaring insurance costs, could change the economics of where people choose to live, as buyers avoid homes with high risk or face fewer bidding wars to buy them.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which separately hit the Southeast last autumn, caused up to $81.5 billion in combined insured and uninsured losses, according to estimates by Core- Logic, a property data and analytics provider. “We’ve seen this massive move of people since the pandemic from the Northeast and Midwest into Florida,” says Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “That now is in jeopardy because of the threat of storms like this and what it means for the cost of owning a home.”

A house’s risk of flood or wildfire usually isn’t as apparent at first glance as an ugly bathroom or cramped kitchen. But now, Zillow is joining home listing websites like Redfin, Realtor.com, and CoStar Group’s Homes.com by adding scores provided by climate-risk modeling company First Street. (News Corp, which owns Barron’s, also owns Realtor.com operator Move.)

Zillow may not be the first to add First Street’s scores but it’s the largest, with 233 million average monthly unique users. That means its rating system will be seen by many more people. Zillow users can find a listing’s score about halfway down the page on its website, underneath its payment calculator section. Not every home has a score.

First Street builds models based on historical data, climate projections, and statistical analysis to determine the probability that a property could see flooding, wildfire, dangerous winds, or other detrimental weather related events, even if it hasn’t in the past. On listings websites that use the data, this appears as a score from one to 10 across five risk categories.

“For people who exclusively use Zillow, this will be the first time they really have seen this information, whether it’s on their property or in the search process,” says Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street.

Homes with better climate scores could become more sought after while those with worse readings could see lower prices, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper co-written by Redfin’s chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, and researchers from the University of Southern California, Columbia University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

To test the impact of risk scores, Redfin displayed First Street’s flood ratings to some users but not to others. The information changed some users’ behavior on searching and buying, Fairweather says. Compared with a control group, users who viewed homes with high risk scores instead made offers on properties that were about half as risky.

The scores also drove up competition for less-risky homes, increasing prices slightly, and reduced demand for some high-risk homes. “The flood risk information had a tangible effect on property prices, with homes in high flood risk areas experiencing a decrease in value,” the authors wrote.

The tool isn’t the only way that prospective buyers can learn about their dream home’s weather risks. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also maps potential hazards through its National Risk Index and maintains maps that designate which homes require flood insurance.

A buyer should consider First Street’s scores as a starting point for further research, says Collyn Wainwright, the president of the Greater Nashville Realtors board of directors. “I would encourage consumers to use it as a guideline to then ask more questions about a property,” she says. “Talking to your homeowners’ insurance agent or broker is going to give you a much clearer, [more] accurate picture of what the risk is for that particular home.”

Insurance is an issue that increasingly is tied to climate risk. In fact, rising premiums are the first way that many homeowners feel the impact of storm risks, says Ben Keys, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

“Getting any sort of credible information about a property’s climate risk is a big step in the right direction,” says Keys, who co-wrote a separate National Bureau of Economic Research working paper on climate risk and property insurance last year. Keys’ research found that premiums rose 33% from 2020 to 2023, with those climbing sharply in areas that FEMA deems to be at higher risk.

In the long run, climate risk could alter migration patterns. But consumers don’t need to dismiss an area solely based on an area’s risk rating. It’s cheaper to pay to make a home more resilient than to replace it after disaster strikes, notes John Rogers, chief data and analytics officer at CoreLogic, which sells an analytics tool that helps insurers size up the resilience of individual homes to storms.

A person’s home is “the biggest way that Americans make wealth,” he says. “It’s definitely worth protecting.”

Source: Barrons