Remittances seen growing despite ‘Trump volatilities’

Overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances are expected to grow despite a new US tax that took effect Jan. 1.

Maybank Investment Banking Group economist Azril Rosli on Tuesday said that while the bank remained “cautious of potential headwinds from tighter immigration policies and the new one-percent US remittance tax,” remittances were likely to weather “Trump’s volatilities as seen in Trump 1.0 (his first term)” with the support of a “growing share from the Middle East and other parts of Asia.”

The 1.0 percent tax applies to money sent from the US through cash, money orders and cashier’s checks, regardless of the sender’s citizenship. The tax does not apply to transfers made through US banks, US-issued debit or credit cards, or cash carried by hand.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the US remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40 percent of the year-to-date total.

The central bank, however, has said that remittance data has its limits because money sent home by overseas Filipinos often passes through correspondent banks, most of which are based in the United States, and that remittances sent through couriers are also recorded under the country where the courier’s main office is located, again often the US.

Personal and cash remittances respectively rose by 3.2 percent to $35.7 billion and $32.11 billion as of end-November, latest BSP data showed, from $34.6 billion and $31.1 billion in January-November 2024.

The central bank expects remittances to hit $35.5 billion and $36.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Maybank expects remittances to grow to about $36.5 billion this year.

As for economic growth, the bank said this could remain subdued until next year due to domestic and global uncertainties.

“We continue to evaluate emerging risks from the external trade outlook, geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties that could impact economic growth and inflation,” Rosli said.

Maybank said growth could have slowed to 4.8 percent in 2025 from 2024’s 5.7 percent — below the government’s 5.5- to 6.5-percent target.

Growth is expected to rebound to 4.9 percent and 5.2 percent this year and in 2027, respectively, below the government’s downwardly revised 5.0- to 6.0-percent and 5.5- to 6.5-percent targets.

The impact of a flood control project scandal is not expected to be long-term, Rosli said, but this would also depend on whether the government takes concrete steps to address the issue.

“...I believe that the risk that it could influence the economic trajectory, it could be lesser if... the situation has been resolved by the government,” Rosli said.

“And I think the government has also been proactive to actually improve the situation and also given focus on the priorities of the budget funding, especially on the priorities for the people as well,” he added.

Moreover, the BSP’s “gradual easing of monetary policy” is expected to support the rebound in economic growth.

Rosli said the central bank could implement two more rate cuts this year — one 25-basis-point cut in the first half and another in the last six months of the year.

“This gradual approach reflects that the BSP needs to balance supporting modest GDP (gross domestic product) growth, while maintaining vigilance on emerging risks from the external trade outlook as well as geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties,” he said.

Source: Manila Times

Google Listings Aren’t a Threat to Home Stocks

Housing technology companies are offering far more than just online listings—and those expanded services act as a buffer against disruptions in the residential real estate market.

A turf war over the online home listings business has been brewing for some time. Then Google entered the fray.

As part of a pilot program, the search giant began placing home listings at the top of certain Google search results. News that Google might push deeper into home listings sent shockwaves through the stocks of companies that currently dominate the space.

On December 15, after reports of Google’s test spread over the weekend on social media, Zillow Group’s market value dropped by about $1.5 billion. Shares of CoStar Group, the parent company of Homes.com, fell to their lowest level in more than three years. Neither stock has fully recovered since.

The selloff, however, appears unwarranted.

A Small Experiment, Not a Market Takeover

There is no indication that Google’s home listings feature will see a broad rollout. The test itself is limited in scope: listings have appeared only for mobile users in select cities such as San Francisco and Miami. A Google spokesperson described it to Barron’s as “a small experiment,” without specifying when it began or how long it would last.

Wall Street analysts largely agree that investors overreacted. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has previously experimented with home listings—efforts that ultimately faded away. Still, as Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos put it, “No one likes it when an 800-pound gorilla comes sniffing around.”

The episode reflects deeper anxieties about disruption in the housing technology sector, driven not only by Google but also by the rise of artificial intelligence. Agents told Barron’s they are already receiving increasing referrals—of mixed quality—from AI-driven chat platforms.

More disruption is coming, and companies are preparing for it.

Listings Are Only One Piece of the Business

Major housing platforms—Zillow, Rocket’s Redfin, and CoStar’s Homes.com—are no longer just house-browsing websites. Each has expanded into adjacent services that help insulate them from changes in how buyers search for homes and how agents advertise.

Realtor.com, which also operates a listings platform, is owned by Barron’s parent company, News Corp.

Among the big players, analysts say Zillow’s core business appears the most insulated from increased competition, thanks to strong organic traffic and brand recognition. According to web traffic measurement firm Semrush, Zillow is the most-viewed real estate website in the United States.

In recent years, Zillow has pivoted away from relying primarily on agent listing marketing. Instead, its main sources of growth now come from mortgage services and rental listings. The company also offers agent-focused products such as workflow management software and seller-oriented listing tools.

“The combination of the business that we’ve built is far more diversified than it was five years and 10 years ago,” Zillow Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Hofmann said at a December technology conference.

Benchmark’s Kurnos rates Zillow’s Class A stock a Buy, with a $95 price target—nearly 40% above its recent price of $68.54. “To think that Google would somehow displace the most complete end-to-end solution in the marketplace with the strongest and stickiest agent product suite seems rather far-fetched,” he wrote.

Homes.com and CoStar’s Long Game

CoStar’s Homes.com was positioned as an agent-friendly alternative to dominant listing sites, focusing on services for sellers’ agents rather than lead generation. CoStar acquired Homes.com in 2021 and announced its aggressive expansion with a Super Bowl commercial in 2024.

Usage has grown since then—but so has spending. CoStar’s marketing budget reached $1.36 billion in 2024, up from $684 million in 2022. That surge in spending has weighed on earnings, contributing to stock declines. CoStar shares are down 26% since the Friday before the 2024 Super Bowl and fell another 6% in 2025.

Homes.com remains a relatively new arm of CoStar’s broader commercial real estate business, which includes data analytics software and marketing platforms. Fears of technological disruption have only added to recent pressure on the stock.

Still, CoStar is betting heavily on innovation. According to CEO Andy Florance, 50% of Homes.com’s software development is now focused on artificial intelligence. “AI offers transformative opportunities to unlock tremendous value in real estate,” he said on an October earnings call.

Rocket, Redfin, and Vertical Integration

Rocket, one of the largest mortgage originators in the U.S., made a major move into listings with its 2025 acquisition of Redfin. By the third quarter, more than one in ten of Rocket’s retail loan closings came from customers who used both Redfin and Rocket, CEO Varun Krishna said. “We expect this to only increase,” he added.

Even if competition intensifies or demand for listings portals weakens, Rocket maintains a dominant position in mortgage origination and servicing. Its $14.2 billion all-stock acquisition of loan servicer Mr. Cooper brought an estimated one in six U.S. mortgages under the combined companies’ management.

That refinancing opportunity is one of the reasons Rocket’s stock surged 72% in 2025.

A More Competitive—but Stronger—Ecosystem

For real estate professionals, increased competition may ultimately be beneficial. Wendy Monday, a broker at Nashville-based Onward Real Estate, says she currently advertises on Zillow but is watching Google’s experiment closely.

“The more platforms there are,” she said, “the sharper their tools all have to be.”

For now, Google’s test looks less like a threat—and more like a reminder that housing technology companies have evolved well beyond simple listings.

Source: Barrons

U.S. Offshoring Bill and Its Impact on the Philippine IT-BPM Sector

A new proposal in the U.S. Congress, the Keep Call Centers in America Act, has once again stirred discussion about the future of offshoring and its possible impact on the Philippines’ Information Technology and Business Process Management (IT-BPM) industry.

If enacted, the bill would require call center agents to disclose their location at the start of each customer call and give U.S. consumers the option to speak with an agent based in the United States. It would also require U.S. companies to notify the government 120 days before moving operations offshore. Firms that fail to comply, particularly those receiving government contracts or tax incentives, could face penalties or even blacklisting.

For the Philippines, where nearly 1.9 million Filipinos are employed in the IT-BPM sector and where the industry accounts for about 45% of total office leasing activity, the proposal naturally draws attention.

Temporary Concern, Long-Term Strength

While the measure has raised some concern, similar proposals have been introduced in the past without advancing into law. The Philippine IT-BPM sector has consistently proven resilient in the face of shifting global policies, supported by strong fundamentals and adaptability.

Our data shows that IT-BPM firms remain the primary driver of office demand across the country. Regional hubs such as Cebu, Clark, and Davao continue to attract expansion from outsourcing companies drawn to the deep talent pool, improving infrastructure, and increasing availability of Grade A office spaces suited for outsourcing operations.

Even if some U.S. clients take a more cautious approach, the Philippines retains a clear competitive advantage. Based on U.S. labor data, a U.S.-based call center agent typically costs around $30–$40 per hour, including wages, benefits, and training. By comparison, a Philippine-based agent costs about $12–$15 per hour all-in, a significant difference that continues to make the country a cost-effective and reliable choice.

Why the Industry Remains Resilient

Beyond cost savings, global firms value the Philippines’ skilled, English-proficient workforce, business-friendly environment, and modern, BPO-ready office spaces that meet evolving operational and sustainability standards.

In Cebu, for example, office absorption remains healthy due to the city’s strong IT-BPM presence and access to a consistent talent pipeline from across the Visayas. This ongoing activity reflects how outsourcing firms continue to grow in the Philippines even amid global uncertainty.

Outlook: A Continued Bright Spot for the Economy

Although the Keep Call Centers in America Act may create short-term uncertainty, many industry observers believe it is unlikely to become law given the high labor costs and persistent worker shortages in the United States.

Looking ahead, the IT-BPM sector is expected to remain one of the strongest pillars of employment, office demand, and economic growth in the Philippines. With competitive costs, proven expertise, and continued investor confidence, the country is well-positioned to stay a top global destination for outsourcing in the years ahead.

Source: Leechiu