Oxford Economics forecasts average ASEAN-6 GDP to rise5.3% this year, led by Vietnam, with most economies returning to pre-coronavirus GDP levels in H2 2021.But sequential growth in the short-term is likely to be bumpy, particularly for Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia where restrictions have been reintroduced.
Oxford Economics expects a more synchronized recovery in H2 2021as the regional rollout of vaccines allows for sustained easing in restrictions and the recovery in global trade broadens. With interest rates likely to remain at record lows, we expect government spending to shift from financial support toward infrastructure, which will support the recovery in activity and employment.
An upside scenario based on faster vaccine rollout could see ASEAN-6 average GDP increase by nearly 10%in 2021. But in a scenario with slower vaccine rollout and a surge of infections, the regional recovery would be delayed to 2022
source: Oxford Economics