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Philippines Forecast to be the 25th largest economy by 2036

As of 2021, the Philippines is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $8,900 and is classified as a lower-middle-income country. After the economy shrank by 9.6%in 2020, growth was achieved in 2021, but this is set to have amounted to just 3.2%. As such, output in 2021 is expected to remain 6.7% below 2019 levels.


Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023. Between 2016 and 2021, the population has increased significantly, growing at an average annual rate of 1.5%. This trend will have boosted GDP growth in recent years.


Compared to the countries in the world hit most severely by COVID-19, the Philippines has managed to somewhat shield its residents from the worst health effects of the pandemic, with 45.4 deaths per 100,000 population recorded as of the latest data in mid-December 2021.

source graphic : BusinessWorld


The share of the population in the Philippines that has received at least one COVID-19 vaccination, at 50.5%, is globally comparable. Meanwhile, 38.3% of the population are fully vaccinated.


The high share of the labour force not in work has been a barrier to growth for the economy. This remains the case despite the unemployment rate having fallen by 2.6 percentage points to 7.8% in 2021. Government debt as a share of GDP climbed to 59.1%in 2021, up from 51.7%the previous year.



The increase in the debt to GDP ratio reflects the strains placed upon the public finances by the COVID-19 crisis.


Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 6.6% between 2022 and 2026, before slowing to an average of 5.3% per year between 2027 and 2036.


This impressive growth path would see the Philippines overtake many of its peers in the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will improve from 37th place in 2021 to 25th place by 2036, asizeable12-place improvement in the rankings.


WELT-2022
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Source: The Centre for Economics and Business Research

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