Remittances seen growing despite ‘Trump volatilities’

Overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances are expected to grow despite a new US tax that took effect Jan. 1.

Maybank Investment Banking Group economist Azril Rosli on Tuesday said that while the bank remained “cautious of potential headwinds from tighter immigration policies and the new one-percent US remittance tax,” remittances were likely to weather “Trump’s volatilities as seen in Trump 1.0 (his first term)” with the support of a “growing share from the Middle East and other parts of Asia.”

The 1.0 percent tax applies to money sent from the US through cash, money orders and cashier’s checks, regardless of the sender’s citizenship. The tax does not apply to transfers made through US banks, US-issued debit or credit cards, or cash carried by hand.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the US remained the top source of cash remittances, accounting for 40 percent of the year-to-date total.

The central bank, however, has said that remittance data has its limits because money sent home by overseas Filipinos often passes through correspondent banks, most of which are based in the United States, and that remittances sent through couriers are also recorded under the country where the courier’s main office is located, again often the US.

Personal and cash remittances respectively rose by 3.2 percent to $35.7 billion and $32.11 billion as of end-November, latest BSP data showed, from $34.6 billion and $31.1 billion in January-November 2024.

The central bank expects remittances to hit $35.5 billion and $36.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Maybank expects remittances to grow to about $36.5 billion this year.

As for economic growth, the bank said this could remain subdued until next year due to domestic and global uncertainties.

“We continue to evaluate emerging risks from the external trade outlook, geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties that could impact economic growth and inflation,” Rosli said.

Maybank said growth could have slowed to 4.8 percent in 2025 from 2024’s 5.7 percent — below the government’s 5.5- to 6.5-percent target.

Growth is expected to rebound to 4.9 percent and 5.2 percent this year and in 2027, respectively, below the government’s downwardly revised 5.0- to 6.0-percent and 5.5- to 6.5-percent targets.

The impact of a flood control project scandal is not expected to be long-term, Rosli said, but this would also depend on whether the government takes concrete steps to address the issue.

“...I believe that the risk that it could influence the economic trajectory, it could be lesser if... the situation has been resolved by the government,” Rosli said.

“And I think the government has also been proactive to actually improve the situation and also given focus on the priorities of the budget funding, especially on the priorities for the people as well,” he added.

Moreover, the BSP’s “gradual easing of monetary policy” is expected to support the rebound in economic growth.

Rosli said the central bank could implement two more rate cuts this year — one 25-basis-point cut in the first half and another in the last six months of the year.

“This gradual approach reflects that the BSP needs to balance supporting modest GDP (gross domestic product) growth, while maintaining vigilance on emerging risks from the external trade outlook as well as geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties,” he said.

Source: Manila Times