Philippines’ Misery Index falls in June 2025

The Philippines registered a significant improvement in its adjusted misery index in June 2025, reflecting a more favorable balance between inflation, unemployment, and underemployment. The index fell to 16.1 percent, compared to 18.5 percent in June 2024, signaling relief for Filipino households amid easing price pressures and stronger labor market conditions.

What is the Adjusted Misery Index?

The traditional misery index is calculated by adding inflation and unemployment. The adjusted version, however, includes underemployment—a more comprehensive gauge of economic distress. This provides a clearer picture of how many Filipinos are struggling not only to find jobs but also to secure stable, decent-paying work.

Formula:

Adjusted Misery Index = Inflation Rate + Unemployment Rate + Underemployment Rate

Key Economic Indicators (June 2025)

• Unemployment: Fell to 3.7 percent, equivalent to 1.9 million unemployed, an improvement from 4.5 percent a year earlier.

• Underemployment: Declined to 11.0 percent from 12.7 percent in June 2024, showing progress in creating better-quality jobs.

• Inflation: Registered 1.4 percent, a sharp drop from 3.3 percent in the same month last year, with food inflation almost flat at just 0.1 percent.

Putting these figures together:

June 2025 = 3.7 + 11.0 + 1.4 = 16.1%
June 2024 = 4.5 + 12.7 + 3.3 = 18.5%

What Drove the Decline?

1. Rice Price Stabilization

   • Government interventions, including tariff cuts and expanded supply programs, led to a historic decline in rice prices—down by 14.3 percent, the steepest fall in three decades.

2. Improved Labor Market

   • Expanded government hiring in education and healthcare, combined with job matching, internships, and training programs, reduced both unemployment and underemployment.

3. Lower Inflationary Pressures

   • Cheaper food commodities such as vegetables, corn, and sugar helped pull down consumer prices, benefitting especially low-income households.

Why This Matters

• For Households: The decline translates to greater purchasing power and better job security, particularly for vulnerable groups.

• For Policymakers: The results highlight the effectiveness of targeted programs in controlling food prices and promoting job creation.

• For Investors: Lower inflation and stronger employment signal a healthier macroeconomic environment, boosting investor confidence.

Outlook

While the drop to 16.1 percent is a promising sign, risks remain. Potential volatility in global oil markets, El Niño–driven food supply challenges, and animal disease outbreaks affecting pork prices could put upward pressure on inflation in the months ahead. Sustaining momentum will require continued government vigilance, particularly in keeping food affordable and strengthening inclusive job opportunities.

The Philippines’ adjusted misery index in June 2025 shows a clear improvement from last year’s 18.5 percent, reflecting easing inflation and stronger labor conditions. If these trends continue, Filipino households may enjoy a period of greater economic stability heading into 2026.

Source: Ziggurat Real Estate